Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons [Updated] | CleanTechnica
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Clean Technica: Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord (5 year cost)
- Thread starter ecarfan
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srs5694
Active Member
There's a significant flaw in this analysis:
Googling it suggests that the current national average for gasoline is $2.50, not $3.00; and the current national average for electricity is $0.12/kWh. Thus, the calculation has baked in likely-invalid fuel-cost assumptions that favor the Tesla (or any EV) over the gas car. Of course, these things vary regionally; in my area (northern Rhode Island), it's $2.90 or so for gas and about $0.18 for electricity. It's also possible that prices will shift in time, but I don't know of any reason to think that they'll shift in a way to favor EVs in the next five years. Also, another caveat is that there is free public charging in most areas, so if you were really cheap, you could use that to drive down the charging cost quite a bit.
I'm not sure which way the maintenance costs would go, but they're unlikely to be $0 for either car. Most new cars today come with a year or two of free routine maintenance, but beyond that it's pay-as-you-go. Although Teslas require less routine maintenance than do most gas cars, Tesla's prices are on the high side. OTOH, you could do most of the Tesla maintenance (like tire rotations) yourself for $0. That approach would also bring down the cost of the Accord maintenance, but not to $0, since you'd still need to pay for oil and oil filters. For both cars, there would be costs like wiper fluid, new wipers, and even new tires.
Googling it suggests that the current national average for gasoline is $2.50, not $3.00; and the current national average for electricity is $0.12/kWh. Thus, the calculation has baked in likely-invalid fuel-cost assumptions that favor the Tesla (or any EV) over the gas car. Of course, these things vary regionally; in my area (northern Rhode Island), it's $2.90 or so for gas and about $0.18 for electricity. It's also possible that prices will shift in time, but I don't know of any reason to think that they'll shift in a way to favor EVs in the next five years. Also, another caveat is that there is free public charging in most areas, so if you were really cheap, you could use that to drive down the charging cost quite a bit.
I'm not sure which way the maintenance costs would go, but they're unlikely to be $0 for either car. Most new cars today come with a year or two of free routine maintenance, but beyond that it's pay-as-you-go. Although Teslas require less routine maintenance than do most gas cars, Tesla's prices are on the high side. OTOH, you could do most of the Tesla maintenance (like tire rotations) yourself for $0. That approach would also bring down the cost of the Accord maintenance, but not to $0, since you'd still need to pay for oil and oil filters. For both cars, there would be costs like wiper fluid, new wipers, and even new tires.
$2.50 per gallon looks too low for current gas price -- $3.00 looks about right.
The AAA website says current US national average gas prices are about $2.90 for regular -- so almost $3. U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had a similar average-- $2.89 -- last week.
AAA Gas Prices
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - Energy Information Administration
Also, for electricity rates most EV owners do their charging at night, when rates are at their lowest in many areas. So the average electricity rate for EV home charging is likely significantly less than the overall average rate. In my area, for example, the nighttime electricity rate is only about 1/4 of the highest rate.
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Ludalicious
Active Member
In Vancouver Canada we are over $4.0 US
So ya.... It goes both ways depending on your geographic location
RScottyL
Member
Yeah, gas prices seem to fluctuate more than electricity prices!
As far as maintenance in two years, for the most part on a gas car, you will be:
(1) changing oil
(2) rotating tires
(3) changing air filter/cabin air filter
(4) changing wiper blades
two of those would apply to ANY car, including electric:
rotating tires
changing wiper blades
Another cost needs to be added to Tesla: washing and detailing. I've washed my 3 more times in the past 5 months than ive washed our leaf (granted it's a lease) which has been 2.5 years.
Bought a pressure washer, accessories, etc. Owning a car you really like just makes cleaning time much more fun.
Bought a pressure washer, accessories, etc. Owning a car you really like just makes cleaning time much more fun.
Then there's no reason for tire rotation. Tire rotation is something to have done if your car is going to be on a lift anyway.
Actually, there are many, but you are unlikely to get much love from the EV forum, when you start questioning a study that says EVs are the greatest!
The biggest elephant in the room is resale value of the cars after 5-years.
There are historical records of Honda's is easy to come by, but there are zero data points on 5-year residuals for Model 3. If you believe Elan's twits, it should appreciate. If you believe Tesla's residuals used in lease calculations, M3 is expected to depreciate to ~45% of MSRP.
Clean Technica bravely assumes 49% residual after 5 years, which is unrealistically, stupidly high.
The outcome of comparison flows from there...
True on gas prices, $2.89 is a reasonable national average.
It's higher in some states (Cali, Hawaii), and lower in others (Alabama, Luisiana), so the best we can do is stick to the national averages.
Similarly, national average electricity cost (generation and delivery) is 13 cents (supply/generation) + 4 cents (delivery) = 17 cents/KWh.
Again, those vary by state a lot (9 - 30 cents for delivery alone), and by season, so best to stick with the national averages:
Electricity Rates by State (Updated March 2019) – Electric Choice
Indeed.
Ongoing maintenance costs are similar between EV and ICE cars, the only difference being lack of annual oil changes (~$50-80).
US, EV owners, still need to periodically replace the tires, wiper blades, cabin air filters, washer fluid, brake fluid, brake pads, etc.
a
The source you cite does not support 17c/wWh -- it says average residential rates are 13.2c/kWh.
According to the official U.S. Energy Information Administration data, for the latest month reported (Feb. 2019) average retail electricity prices were 12.7c/kWh. Rates are a little higher in the summer (EIA estimates ~13.4c/kWh this summer) which puts the overall average at about ~13c/kWh.
Electricity Monthly Update
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
As mentioned in my earlier post, the national average electricity rate for charging is likely similar to CleanTechnica's 10c/kWh figure, because EV owners in many parts of the country can take advantage of significantly lower nighttime rates to charge.
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Gas prices are relatively low right now, over 5 years it's very likely they go up. Maintenance on a Tesla kills it. You aren't getting free maintenance with an accord. Just oil changes alone say 3x a year really add up over 5 years.
Electricity prices are regulated in most areas. It takes a big effort to adjust rates. (trust me...it's a hassle)
Correct.
Those reference average generation prices, distribution cost is neglected.
My distribution cost is 4 c/kWh.
You are welcome to plug in yours, but there is no point in pretending that it's $0.00.
Again, omitting distribution costs.
10c/kWh is misleading for many of the reasons stated above, and earlier. In CleanTechnica's own post, they disclose that this number was a "guess for a median value". A conveniently low one at that.
For many EV owners, myself included, time-of-day rates are unattractive because the bulk of my home electricity consumption is driven by the AC system, not my EV!
But all this nit picking is a red herring.
+/-1 cent in electricity cost doesn't begin to impact the outcome as much as inventing +$5K in imaginary value for 5-year old TM3's. If residual is not 49% after 5 years, but the higher of linearly extrapolated Tesla's own 3-year lease residuals (implies 34% res value) or Camry's depreciation as sited (36.2%), then the delta "cost" to owning TM3 goes up by 39,500 * (49% - 36.2%) = $5,056. That $5K flips the outcome of the study.
Everything else pails in comparison.
We all like our EVs, but misleading about their cost of ownership or maintenance is not a good way to advocate for them.
These white lies are easily identified, exposed, and undermine the credibility of both the message, and the messenger.
a
@afadeev adding your personal distribution cost to national average electricity costs is just wrong.
The EIA data clearly includes transmission and distribution costs. This is right from the EIA retail electricity cost forecast:
"EIA forecasts that U.S. residential electricity prices will average 13.4 cents/kWh during the summer cooling season, about 2% higher than last summer. The higher forecast prices primarily reflect higher actual generation fuel costs from 2018 that affect retail rates with a time lag, as well as rising electric transmission and distribution costs."
So your 17c/kWh number is incorrect.
We will have to agree to disagree about the adjustment CleanTechnica made from 13c/kWh to 10c/kWh. I would prefer to have hard numbers but their estimate seems reasonable given that many people can charge at night at much below average costs in their region.
The EIA data clearly includes transmission and distribution costs. This is right from the EIA retail electricity cost forecast:
"EIA forecasts that U.S. residential electricity prices will average 13.4 cents/kWh during the summer cooling season, about 2% higher than last summer. The higher forecast prices primarily reflect higher actual generation fuel costs from 2018 that affect retail rates with a time lag, as well as rising electric transmission and distribution costs."
So your 17c/kWh number is incorrect.
We will have to agree to disagree about the adjustment CleanTechnica made from 13c/kWh to 10c/kWh. I would prefer to have hard numbers but their estimate seems reasonable given that many people can charge at night at much below average costs in their region.
Just my experience.
5 cents at night when I was on TOU. That is all inclusive.
Now I am not on TOU. It is 11 cents.
Last month my solar offset all but 60 kwh. Without my car that would have been lost as my net metering clears out at the end of May. But I would not have installed such a large system if I didn't have 2 EV's.
I live in NC. Have 3800 sqft. My cars are way more than my a/c. If your a/c is more than your cars in NYC, you either don't drive much or have horrible a/c (or you live in 10,000 sqft which is not likely in NYC).
Electricity rates are funny business. In NY and MA - it is union labor for maintenance. Best I can tell. CA - it is based on encouraging conservation.
Wholesale electricity is about 4 cents. Anything above that is profit and distribution costs. Distribution costs are no joke of course. But 4 cents is pretty reasonable. So in my area, 11 cents gives a good profit for the utility. TOU with 5 cents at night also works.
Anywhere over about 13 cents has some pathology (or conservation encouraging) built in. Nothing wrong with that but it isn't completely rational. Solar is cheap enough that 18 cents should only be paid by fools, renters or people who live in shade.
I will bet that solar gets cheaper and gas gets more expensive over the next 5 years.
Another way of doing the math.
My solar was $15k. Generates 15,000 kwh a year. If you use 4% time value of money - more than a CD will pay. Basically what a mortgage is. That is $600 a year or 4 cents a kwh. Not completely fair of course but if you do a 30 year mortgage it is $840 a year. That is 6 cents a kwh. Protected from inflation for 30 years. (admittedly subsidized - $6k from utility, 30% fed tax credit).
Take subsidy away - it was $30k or so. So double it. Easy math - 12 cents protected from inflation for 30 years.
5 cents at night when I was on TOU. That is all inclusive.
Now I am not on TOU. It is 11 cents.
Last month my solar offset all but 60 kwh. Without my car that would have been lost as my net metering clears out at the end of May. But I would not have installed such a large system if I didn't have 2 EV's.
I live in NC. Have 3800 sqft. My cars are way more than my a/c. If your a/c is more than your cars in NYC, you either don't drive much or have horrible a/c (or you live in 10,000 sqft which is not likely in NYC).
Electricity rates are funny business. In NY and MA - it is union labor for maintenance. Best I can tell. CA - it is based on encouraging conservation.
Wholesale electricity is about 4 cents. Anything above that is profit and distribution costs. Distribution costs are no joke of course. But 4 cents is pretty reasonable. So in my area, 11 cents gives a good profit for the utility. TOU with 5 cents at night also works.
Anywhere over about 13 cents has some pathology (or conservation encouraging) built in. Nothing wrong with that but it isn't completely rational. Solar is cheap enough that 18 cents should only be paid by fools, renters or people who live in shade.
I will bet that solar gets cheaper and gas gets more expensive over the next 5 years.
Another way of doing the math.
My solar was $15k. Generates 15,000 kwh a year. If you use 4% time value of money - more than a CD will pay. Basically what a mortgage is. That is $600 a year or 4 cents a kwh. Not completely fair of course but if you do a 30 year mortgage it is $840 a year. That is 6 cents a kwh. Protected from inflation for 30 years. (admittedly subsidized - $6k from utility, 30% fed tax credit).
Take subsidy away - it was $30k or so. So double it. Easy math - 12 cents protected from inflation for 30 years.
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david_42
Member
On the one hand, electricity is 0.15/Kwh here, on the other, regular gas is $3.46/gal. The tilts is a bit away from the Tesla. The gripping hand - gas has been as low as $2.35/gal. in the last year, but electricity climbs steadily. It's up from 0.12/Kwh in the last five years and will just go higher as the PGE pumps more money into renewables. The current surcharge for 100% renewable electricity is $5 per 1Kw "block". I have no idea what that means exactly, except more.
But, if the Model 3 was a compact hatchback and wasn't so dependent on its screen, we'd probably have purchased one.
But, if the Model 3 was a compact hatchback and wasn't so dependent on its screen, we'd probably have purchased one.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I thought most of those deals are TOU schemes that carry higher daytime rates than the non TOU rates.
There are two ways to get insanely cheap (close to free) EV charging:
1. Live in Texas, land of wind
2. Put up PV
Leafdriver333
Somewhat Active Member
Fuel savings for Model 3 v Accord or Camry on average are very significant, and you don’t have to have PV or live in Texas to see the benefits.
In Clean Technica’s example using 10c/kWh at a US average of 13,500 miles per year the savings are about $930 per year or $4650 over 5 years for a Camry XLE and $1200 per year or $6000 over 5 years for a Camry XLE V6. They are only slightly lower if you estimate electricity at 13c/kWh — $830/Y ($4150 for 5 years) and $1100/year $5500 for 5 years.
Over the lifetime of the car the benefits are obviously much greater.
The substantial fuel cost savings are mostly a reflection of the far more efficient EV drivetrain.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Of course not.
I am pointing out that the savings should be discounted by whatever extra money a household pays during the day in order to get cheap night-time rates.
