I've been around since 1977 and people have been making these exact any-minute-now predictions my entire life. Perhaps if we didn't speak in absolute terms about things we don't fully understand we wouldn't have so many deniers out there. There was no way out of the ozone hole catastrophe either, yet here we are.
I like you TTM... you appear genuinely interested in discussion... let's get a couple things clear concerning CFCs vs AGW;
- The CFC issue WAS a genuine problem... we solved it by taking DECISIVE action with the Montreal Protocol.
- AGW is orders of magnitude more complicated. CFCs were manufactured by fewer than a dozen companies. DuPont alone was responsible for ~25%.
George Marshall discusses the differences at length in his book 'Why our brains are wired to ignore climate change'; While they may share superficial similarities even calling it an apples and oranges comparison doesn't do it justice... more like iPods and oranges.
In <25 years we were able to reduce CFC production by ~98% for the reasons stated above PLUS there was a viable alternative that was also in some ways superior. With CO2 we're stuck in the awkward position of admitting that we do need fossil fuels for some applications while admitting that they do cause harm.
CFCs were a tame problem... relatively easily solved involving only a few key players.
Global Warming is a
'wicked problem' solutions employed with CFCs are next to useless with AGW. You have to balance environmental vs economic harm... an outright ban is impossible; you can't simply quit 'cold-turkey' like we effectively did with CFCs.
In terms of speaking in absolute terms... it's important you don't allow known unknown to bleed into known knowns... there ARE areas there there IS absolute certainty...
KNOWN KNOWNs (Absolutely certain)
- CO2 levels have risen ~40% since the industrial revolution began.
- Fossil fuels have contributed 200% as much as would be required for that rise
- Doubling CO2 will raise average global temperatures ~2C through the change in radiation balance alone
- Warmer temperatures mean a change in weather patterns AND generally stronger storms
- Warmer temperatures mean a rise in sea level
KNOWN UNKNOWNs
- What are the Feedbacks? Consensus it generally positive... 2C forcing results in additional ~1-7 degree feedback for total rise of ~3-8C
- What are the changes in weather patterns? Consensus is wet areas get wetter... dry areas get dryer... worse floods and worse droughts
- How fast will sea levels rise? Almost certainly >2' just from the thermal expansion of the oceans. We're getting close to the point of no return with the ice caps... that locks us into a long-term ~200' rise in sea level.
UNKNOWN UNKNOWNs
Theres a lot of apocalyptic stuff out there that we simply don't know enough about... like the
clathrate gun hypothesis
The fact that we don't know for certain what sea level will be in 2100 doesn't mean we don't know that sea level WILL rise. At the end of the day we need to accelerate our transition away from fossil fuels... the risks are simply too great. There is FAR too much apathy and no where near enough action.
