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I find this line of reasoning completely counter to the evidence of the last 5 years. Germany signed the simplest of legislation and took renewables from a tiny niche concept to mainstream reality and from here the only logical path is exponential growth.
Ponder the supply line from oil well to gas pump. All the jobs, many of which are completed by people who may not have a university degree, let alone their grade 12. All of them will be forced to do something else as time goes on. Do you they think they'll transition easily? Or that the unions will support the changes?

Stretch it a bit further... the system connected to building and maintaining the ICE. Dealerships make their money in the service bays. Jobbers run around in their little delivery cars delivering new spark plugs and air filters. What are they going to do if everyone is driving low maintenance EV's?

Everything we do seems to be connected in some way back to fossil fuels. It would be foolish to think everyone will just jump up and embrace the transition.
 
nwdiver,

Have you actually read the Moral Case for Fossil Fuels? The folks in third world countries want the same things we have. The least expensive energy at this time is coal. That's why China is building so many coal fired plants. Poor folks can't afford an electric car. As of now the cheapest electric car in the US is a Smart For Two with a range of 68 miles. It costs around $25,000 versus $14,000 for a gasoline version. The next cheapest is the Chevy Spark with a 82 mile range. It's $27,495 versus $14,405. I tried to find the least expensive EV's in China and India and from what I found on the internet it's about $16,000 (including rebates) in China a about $9,000 in India. You can purchase a gasoline Tata Nano for less than $5,000. So which car are these folks going to purchase? I don't disagree that there is global warming and that burning fossil fuels is probably a major cause. But if you can afford air conditioning and other modern conveniences you can combat the affects of an increase in temperature. Increase in CO2 helps plants grow faster which is a plus for increased CO2. Fossil fuels also provide fertilizers which help feed the world. So, although fossil fuels have a lot of negatives they also have some positives as pointed out in the Moral Case for Fossil Fuels.
 
nwdiver,

Have you actually read the Moral Case for Fossil Fuels? The folks in third world countries want the same things we have. The least expensive energy at this time is coal. That's why China is building so many coal fired plants. Poor folks can't afford an electric car. As of now the cheapest electric car in the US is a Smart For Two with a range of 68 miles. It costs around $25,000 versus $14,000 for a gasoline version. The next cheapest is the Chevy Spark with a 82 mile range. It's $27,495 versus $14,405. I tried to find the least expensive EV's in China and India and from what I found on the internet it's about $16,000 (including rebates) in China a about $9,000 in India. You can purchase a gasoline Tata Nano for less than $5,000. So which car are these folks going to purchase? I don't disagree that there is global warming and that burning fossil fuels is probably a major cause. But if you can afford air conditioning and other modern conveniences you can combat the affects of an increase in temperature. Increase in CO2 helps plants grow faster which is a plus for increased CO2. Fossil fuels also provide fertilizers which help feed the world. So, although fossil fuels have a lot of negatives they also have some positives as pointed out in the Moral Case for Fossil Fuels.

Got no issue with people who can't afford a LEAF commuting in a Smart For Two.... Corvettes are an abomination that should be kept in a garage and off the road.

Solar is now <$0.04/kWh... the $$$ cost of coal is only slightly less; it a faustian and EXTREMELY immoral bargain as future generations pay a FAR FAR heavier cost. Within ~5 years Solar will be cheaper than coal.

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@rays427: Let's grant for the sake of argument your point that developing countries need to pass through a fossil fuel stage. With that premise, the moral case against developed countries using fossil fuel is even stronger. Fossil fuel use in developed countries:
  1. Drives up the cost of fossil fuels for everyone, including the developing countries;
  2. Uses up the limited "carbon budget," rather than reserving more of it to help developing countries grow;
  3. Exacerbates climate change, which has disproportionately greater impacts on developing countries.
But as @nwdiver points out, it's not at all obvious that developing countries need to follow the same path we did on the energy front. You can't compare the cost of coal and the cost of solar here to those in a country that doesn't have a robust electric transmission and distribution system. A village can install a solar array and a little micro-grid, or simply a panel or two on each house, using very basic equipment and skills. Electrifying villages using a coal plant requires that you build a LOT of wires, have trained engineers to operate and maintain the plant, transportation infrastructure for the coal, etc.

Take a look, for example, at how mobile phones have transformed developing countries. Sure a land-line telephone handset is cheaper than a mobile phone, but it requires infrastructure that doesn't exist in large swaths of the world. These countries have, outside of major cities, simply leap-frogged over the wired phones and gone straight to cell phones.

The same can happen with energy: skip coal, skip oil, skip natural gas, and go straight to small-scale, local production.
 
Ponder the supply line from oil well to gas pump. All the jobs, many of which are completed by people who may not have a university degree, let alone their grade 12. All of them will be forced to do something else as time goes on. Do you they think they'll transition easily? Or that the unions will support the changes?

Stretch it a bit further... the system connected to building and maintaining the ICE. Dealerships make their money in the service bays. Jobbers run around in their little delivery cars delivering new spark plugs and air filters. What are they going to do if everyone is driving low maintenance EV's?

Everything we do seems to be connected in some way back to fossil fuels. It would be foolish to think everyone will just jump up and embrace the transition.

Creative destruction seems to blast through even the most entrenched obstacles with relative ease, and human nature will have the rats jumping ship soon enough. The top .00001% hoard and sell oil because it's in their interest to do so, once we pass a certain tipping point they will change course. The financial world will wake up to the fact that half the humans on the planet are going to finance a 30 year block of energy usage at some point over the next 50 years and will scurry to get in on it. The entire thing will snowball from there much more rapidly than anyone is expecting.

Sadly, the livelihoods and needs of lower middle class workers rarely have say in direction.
 
Robert,

So what are they going to use for transportation? An electric car is almost double the cost of a ice vehicle. If renewable energy is cheaper than coal why is China building so many coal power plants? Day trips in an EV are great. Long trips are still an adventure. If you want to get from point a to be quickly an ice is still the way to go. I planned out a trip to Texas and Tennessee from California and it was going to take me and extra 3 to 4 days to use the Tesla. I looked at it as an adventure. But if I wasn't retired and was using vacation days that may not have been the best use of my time. I could fly but as of now there are no electric planes.
 
There appears to be this psychological requirement in the mind of most people; That if something is 'necessary' at any level... that it can't be bad. Yes, aviation still requires the use of fossil fuels. Power generation and getting to/from work increasingly does not. A few months after I bought my Tesla I was asked by a security guard at the front gate why I bought it; I gave my 'front gate' speech, "To conserve oil". His response was, "Yeah.... but there's still oil in your tires".......... OK.... so the fact that we still need oil in tires means that we should keep burning it in cars? Maybe I just don't get it....

The logic train appears to go like this... X is necessary for Y => X isn't bad => it's somehow ok to keep using X for Z

There are a few applications where fossil fuel use is still necessary... that in no way absolves them from the catastrophic consequences of their use. The fact that EVs are still out of reach for some people STRENGTHENS the case for EVs for those that can afford them.... it DOESN'T provide moral justification for burning 10+ gallons of fuel for your weekly commute. The fact that we still need to burn some jet fuel to make it long-distances in a reasonable time doesn't make a recreational drive powered a V8 any less absurd.

If renewable energy is cheaper than coal why is China building so many coal power plants?

Coal use in China is now falling Let's flip that question.... If coal is cheaper than solar why did China install 10GW of solar in 2014 + 5GW in Q1'15?
 
Robert,

So what are they going to use for transportation? An electric car is almost double the cost of a ice vehicle. If renewable energy is cheaper than coal why is China building so many coal power plants? Day trips in an EV are great. Long trips are still an adventure. If you want to get from point a to be quickly an ice is still the way to go. I planned out a trip to Texas and Tennessee from California and it was going to take me and extra 3 to 4 days to use the Tesla. I looked at it as an adventure. But if I wasn't retired and was using vacation days that may not have been the best use of my time. I could fly but as of now there are no electric planes.
As @nwdiver points out, even if there is a need to use gasoline for cars, that doesn't support using coal for electricity. Furthermore, most people in these situations can't afford any sort of car, ICE or EV. Instead they walk, bicycle, or use scooters of various sizes. Electric scooters are pretty close in price to ICE scooters.
 
As @nwdiver points out, even if there is a need to use gasoline for cars, that doesn't support using coal for electricity. Furthermore, most people in these situations can't afford any sort of car, ICE or EV. Instead they walk, bicycle, or use scooters of various sizes. Electric scooters are pretty close in price to ICE scooters.

Yep; The e-scooter is proving to be a god-send for Asia as they struggle with smog. You can't cost-effectively put a catalytic converter in an ICE scooter so they can contribute more to air pollution than most cars. For 'round town stuff, which is where e-scooters are primarily used, you don't need >50 miles of range. You can now get one for ~$800. In <10 years an EV with ~100 miles range will be cheaper than an equivalent ICE.

Sure, we'll still need fossil fuels for some things in ~10.... even 20 years.... let's not allow that to excuse its use in areas where we don't :wink:
 
The near term practical implications of climate change are starting to become increasingly apparent.


See: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...enario-that-is-south-florida/article25552300/

Scientists are starting to suggest that, in the long run, much of South Florida cannot be saved and that policymakers should begin planning for how to best deal with a massive northward exodus in the coming decades, as some of the most iconic real estate on the continent begins to succumb to the sea.


 
Like I said, show me where I can buy a 2 wheeled e-anything off the shelf in the USA for $800 than can do even 15 miles at 20 mph. No vaporware or press releases.

Such a product would make a big splash and really reduce energy consumption for a lot of people.