Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[SageBrush]

Unfortunately just telling folks to buy an EV won't do much to make that a reality, when wages haven't risen fast enough to maintain a middle class lifestyle, the US is already over-leveraged with auto loans, and a full three fifths of the country are living paycheck to paycheck.

The average selling price of a new vehicle in the USA in 2019 is ~ $35,000 which suggests that EV cost is less an obstacle than vehicle choice and reliability. Long term reliability and battery longevity is pivotal for the used market.

The paycheck to paycheck folks buy used.

 

[d21mike]

At the moment, we should be more concerned about the top 10-20% of U.S. wealth. Like probably most on this forum, they can comfortably afford a Model 3 SR or greater or some other manufacturers BEV, solar PV, upgrading to heat pumps when their water heater or HVAC is due, and countless other meaningful energy/efficiency upgrades. Of course voting is important too.

We needs to turn the several tens of millions in this category who say “I care” to doing things that really show it.

By doing so that drives down the cost of these items and makes them more cost competitive for those further down the wealth spectrum.

Exactly. If we get the leaders (or out spoken celebrities) to make it popular to only buy EV.

Again, PLEDGE to never buy ICE again. That should be the GND.

BTW.. This will naturally happen because EV's are so much better than ICE but it will take a while.

During the CNN Climate Debate. Yang was asked if you are going to FORCE people to give up their ICE cars (or something like that). Yang replied. No, you are going to LOVE driving your EV. His point is that is not something you will hate to do. You will love it. And I agree.

 

[d21mike]

The average selling price of a vehicle in the USA in 2019 is ~ $35,000 which suggests that EV cost is less an obstacle than vehicle choice and reliability.

The paycheck to paycheck folks buy used.

And if we get every new car buyer to buy EV then the used market will be much larger in 3-5 years. Got to get the New Buyers to Pledge never buy ICE again. Manufactures will be forced to switch ASAP or go out of business.

 

[dhrivnak]

So... it's our fault that we don't have choices to reduce demand?

We DO have a choice. It is a choice to by and EV. It is a choice to add solar or buy green power. It is a choice to add extra insulation. Like it is a choice to buy a big SUV.

 

[mspohr]

The boat on gradual change has sailed

We do not have until 2050 to reduce CO2 emissions to zero. We do not have until 2030 to reduce CO2 emissions by 50%. That is, if we could wave a magic wand in 2050 and poof! all emissions are zeroed, we’d be screwed. That is because all the emissions between now and then would have already been put into the system and we are so close that that alone is enough to push us over the tipping point.

 

[iPlug]

Out of curiosity, who here thinks enough of the world will make those drastic changes needed (and in time) to avoid large temperature and sea level rises?

 

[nwdiver]

Out of curiosity, who here thinks enough of the world will make those drastic changes needed (and in time) to avoid large temperature and sea level rises?

Define 'large'.

I think 1.5C is probably impossible w/o geoengineering but 2C should be achievable if we stop electing petulant bigots that celebrate ignorance and instead elect leaders with the courage to provide sufficient 'motivation' to the masses.

 

[SageBrush]

Out of curiosity, who here thinks enough of the world will make those drastic changes needed (and in time) to avoid large temperature and sea level rises?

I'm in the maybe camp, because clean energy is dropping in price so quickly. Pretty soon politicians will start demanding regulatory action on a large scale.

 

[JRP3]

Define 'large'.

I think 1.5C is probably impossible w/o geoengineering but 2C should be achievable if we stop electing petulant bigots that celebrate ignorance and instead elect leaders with the courage to provide sufficient 'motivation' to the masses.

So in other words we're screwed .

 

[iPlug]

Define 'large'.

Would say about 3º celsius higher temps and 3' higher sea level than preindustrial levels by 2100.

I'm in the maybe camp, because clean energy is dropping in price so quickly. Pretty soon politicians will start demanding regulatory action on a large scale.

Similar vote here. If we pull it off, suspect we will have economics to thank, not good will.

Would bet many politicians will demand such large scale regulatory action, but am less optimistic that such will happen in enough or the right places.

The Russian economy, for example, is heavily commodity based, oil and gas most important among these. There are no signs of change in political winds there and they also stand to benefit from a warming climate in terms of increased arable land and year-round access/control of the northeast passage, thus enhancing their trade position.

That can only be fixed by removing worldwide demand for petroleum products because renewable alternatives become much more affordable and versatile enough.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Out of curiosity, who here thinks enough of the world will make those drastic changes needed (and in time) to avoid large temperature and sea level rises?

I struggle to get traction with my affluent mates. And yet they are jealous about all the Eco things I have done, which have (no skill on my part) turned out well for me.

Plenty of intelligent, non-denier, people not doing anything. They do, of course, trust Scientists for lots of things in their life, but can't Touch and Feel climate change yet ...

UK’s CO2 emissions have declined by around 38% since 1990, faster than any other major developed country. Of course we have done the easier half, which took very little actual effort, and the next half is going to be much harder

It reminds me of a definition of exponential growth, another thing that humans are useless at visualising.

There are two bacteria in a jar and their population doubles every minute. The size of the jar is not important, but it will be full at midnight. When do they panic?

1 minute to midnight 50% full
2 minutes to midnight 25% full
...
10 minutes to midnight 0.1% full

 

[mspohr]

Would say about 3º celsius higher temps and 3' higher sea level than preindustrial levels by 2100.


Similar vote here. If we pull it off, suspect we will have economics to thank, not good will.

Would bet many politicians will demand such large scale regulatory action, but am less optimistic that such will happen in enough or the right places.

The Russian economy, for example, is heavily commodity based, oil and gas most important among these. There are no signs of change in political winds there and they also stand to benefit from a warming climate in terms of increased arable land and year-round access/control of the northeast passage, thus enhancing their trade position.

That can only be fixed by removing worldwide demand for petroleum products because renewable alternatives become much more affordable and versatile enough.

The economics of renewables have turned favorable but that won't be enough. We need political leadership to extinguish entrenched fossil fuels but that is nowhere in sight.
3 degrees would be a disaster.

 

[WannabeOwner]

We need political leadership to extinguish entrenched fossil fuels but that is nowhere in sight.

Pensions are stopping investing in Oil Stock because member perception is that it is unethical, and Norway's Sovereign Investment fund is undertaking the largest fossil fuel divestment to date by dropping more than $13bn of investments

Similar with BP sponsoring The Arts here in UK. Started off with members of the Royal Opera House (and some others) complaining about it and Management saying "But we need money, not many people want to support Opera, so we're happy taking the Devil's Money" (they may not have said that last bit )

But pleased to report that BP's Greenwashing Support for The Royal Shakespeare Company has gone the other way, and they have dropped BP as a sponsor, and similarly Shell's greenwashing support for National Theatre

And then there is flygskam / FlightShaming ...

Tide can change without Government doing The Right Thing ...

I look across the Pond and see Trump protecting Coal and Denying Climate Change, but individual States and Cities implementing opposite policy ... so not as bad as it at first appears

 

[mspohr]

Pensions are stopping investing in Oil Stock because member perception is that it is unethical, and Norway's Sovereign Investment fund is undertaking the largest fossil fuel divestment to date by dropping more than $13bn of investments

Similar with BP sponsoring The Arts here in UK. Started off with members of the Royal Opera House (and some others) complaining about it and Management saying "But we need money, not many people want to support Opera, so we're happy taking the Devil's Money" (they may not have said that last bit )

But pleased to report that BP's Greenwashing Support for The Royal Shakespeare Company has gone the other way, and they have dropped BP as a sponsor, and similarly Shell's greenwashing support for National Theatre

And then there is flygskam / FlightShaming ...

Tide can change without Government doing The Right Thing ...

I look across the Pond and see Trump protecting Coal and Denying Climate Change, but individual States and Cities implementing opposite policy ... so not as bad as it at first appears

Hopefully, it's our only chance.

 

[ajdelange]

How can a political movement that has as its current darling a mentally disturbed 16 year old girl expect to attract rational people to its POV?

 

[mspohr]

Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney

Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney

Companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

There will be industries, sectors and firms that do very well during this process because they will be part of the solution,” he said. “But there will also be ones that lag behind and they will be punished.”

 

[mspohr]

Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry

Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry

The world’s largest investment banks have provided more than $700bn of financing for the fossil fuel companies most aggressively expanding in new coal, oil and gas projects since the Paris climate change agreement, figures show.

The financing has been led by the Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, which has provided $75bn (£61bn) to companies expanding in sectors such as fracking and Arctic oil and gas exploration, according to the analysis.

The New York bank is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9tn to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018.

 

[mspohr]

How can a political movement that has as its current darling a mentally disturbed 16 year old girl expect to attract rational people to its POV?

There is help for your condition.

 

[ajdelange]

Uh, it IS supposed to be funny, right?

Of course Joan of Arc was nuts too and she got to be a saint.

 

[iPlug]

Say, for example, most of the world has the political will within a couple decades, but Russia and Saudi Arabia do not, leaving lots of fossil fuels in the pipeline. Also say there are willing buyers for their oil and NG exports in poorer countries.

How do we address that? Sanction suppliers and/or consumers? And if that doesn’t work, war?