Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[ZsoZso]

Overall, companies are the beneficiaries of what climate economist Nicholas Stern has called the “greatest market failure the world has seen”. We need to eliminate subsidies and regulatory preferences, and to price carbon so as to “internalise” the vast costs of climate damages now mostly paid by people who did not cause the problem, such as today’s farmers and tomorrow’s children.

I completely agree, that those costs must be "internalised", and indeed tomorrow's children are innocent sufferers.
However, today’s farmers are not so innocent, they are a big part of the problem as they are burning vast amounts of diesel in their tractors. Long gone are the days when they were plowing their fields using life-stock. Today's farming techniques are not sustainable at all.

Granted, there aren't too many electric tractors on the market to choose from, proper carbon pricing might help with that.

 

[mspohr]

I completely agree, that those costs must be "internalised", and indeed tomorrow's children are innocent sufferers.
However, today’s farmers are not so innocent, they are a big part of the problem as they are burning vast amounts of diesel in their tractors. Long gone are the days when they were plowing their fields using life-stock. Today's farming techniques are not sustainable at all.

Granted, there aren't too many electric tractors on the market to choose from, proper carbon pricing might help with that.

There's also the issue of meat production emitting 17% of our greenhouse gasses.

 

[mspohr]

The big polluters’ masterstroke was to blame the climate crisis on you and me

The big polluters’ masterstroke was to blame the climate crisis on you and me | George Monbiot

Fossil fuel giants have known the harm they do for decades. But they created a system that absolves them of responsibility

Let’s stop calling this the Sixth Great Extinction. Let’s start calling it what it is: the “first great extermination”. A recent essay by the environmental historian Justin McBrien argues that describing the current eradication of living systems (including human societies) as an extinction event makes this catastrophe sound like a passive accident.

But the biggest and most successful lie it tells is this: that the first great extermination is a matter of consumer choice. In response to the Guardian’s questions, some of the oil companies argued that they are not responsible for our decisions to use their products. But we are embedded in a system of their creation – a political, economic and physical infrastructure that creates an illusion of choice while, in reality, closing it down.

We are guided by an ideology so familiar and pervasive that we do not even recognise it as an ideology. It is called consumerism. It has been crafted with the help of skilful advertisers and marketers, by corporate celebrity culture, and by a media that casts us as the recipients of goods and services rather than the creators of political reality. It is locked in by transport, town planning and energy systems that make good choices all but impossible.

 

[ggr]

If development proceeds, Australia alone with account for 13% of carbon emissions:
Revealed: northern Australia's fossil fuel plans push climate goals beyond reach

 

[d21mike]

I have solar and drive and an EV and it in no way comes close to making me energy independent. I live in Northern California and during the winter my solar makes very little power. So for me to be energy independent I would need 8 times the solar panels I now have. My solar will provide a payout but only because of generous subsidies including PG&E currently paying me almost 50 cents per Kwh for my generation and then letting me buy it back to charge my car at 13 cents. However, PG&E is changing their EV schedule which will make it much less economic. As more solar comes on line eventually the cost of power will be higher at night than during the daylight.

You will need batteries at some point.

 

[mspohr]

Oil firms to pour extra 7m barrels per day into markets, data shows

Oil firms to pour extra 7m barrels per day into markets, data shows

The world’s 50 biggest oil companies are poised to flood markets with an additional 7m barrels per day over the next decade, despite warnings from scientists that this will push global heating towards catastrophic levels.

New research commissioned by the Guardian forecasts Shell and ExxonMobil will be among the leaders with a projected production increase of more than 35% between 2018 and 2030 – a sharper rise than over the previous 12 years.

The acceleration is almost the opposite of the 45% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 that scientists say is necessary to have any chance of holding global heating at a relatively safe level of 1.5C.

The projections by Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy regarded as the gold standard for data in the industry, highlight how major players seem to be ignoring government promises, scientific alarms and a growing public outcry so they can pump more fossil fuels – and profits – out of the ground.

 

[d21mike]

Oil firms to pour extra 7m barrels per day into markets, data shows

Oil firms to pour extra 7m barrels per day into markets, data shows

The world’s 50 biggest oil companies are poised to flood markets with an additional 7m barrels per day over the next decade, despite warnings from scientists that this will push global heating towards catastrophic levels.

New research commissioned by the Guardian forecasts Shell and ExxonMobil will be among the leaders with a projected production increase of more than 35% between 2018 and 2030 – a sharper rise than over the previous 12 years.

The acceleration is almost the opposite of the 45% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 that scientists say is necessary to have any chance of holding global heating at a relatively safe level of 1.5C.

The projections by Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy regarded as the gold standard for data in the industry, highlight how major players seem to be ignoring government promises, scientific alarms and a growing public outcry so they can pump more fossil fuels – and profits – out of the ground.

Not surprising to me but not sure why the blame is only on the oil companies. The problem is no body is reducing "usage" to a great extent so the oil companies are anticipating an meeting the demand. To me most things follow the age old rule of supply and demand. If there is no demand then there will eventually be no need for the supply. The people against the Paris Agreement are complaining that there is really nothing in the agreements that will cause much to happen if the participants don't want them to.

 

[mspohr]

Not surprising to me but not sure why the blame is only on the oil companies. The problem is no body is reducing "usage" to a great extent so the oil companies are anticipating an meeting the demand. To me most things follow the age old rule of supply and demand. If there is no demand then there will eventually be no need for the supply. The people against the Paris Agreement are complaining that there is really nothing in the agreements that will cause much to happen if the participants don't want them to.

So... it's our fault that we don't have choices to reduce demand?

 

[d21mike]

So... it's our fault that we don't have choices to reduce demand?

Yes. And we do have choices and more are coming very soon. My wife and I both drive electric cars and we are installing solar this month with battery backup. Are you doing something similar? Are your fiends that believe in Climate Change? I wonder what would happen if everyone who believed in Climate Change and that there is really a crisis would make a pledge to "never buy another ICE Car, EVER". The demand would dry up very quickly and the "suppliers" would have no choice to provide only EV's or go out of business. Then everyone that owns a home would pledge to put Solar on their roof and to not rely on the grid. These things can be done NOW. There is no reason to wait for the GND which is less and less about Climate Change which has been discussed.

 

[mspohr]

Yes. And we do have choices and more are coming very soon. My wife and I both drive electric cars and we are installing solar this month with battery backup. Are you doing something similar? Are your fiends that believe in Climate Change? I wonder what would happen if everyone who believed in Climate Change and that there is really a crisis would make a pledge to "never buy another ICE Car, EVER". The demand would dry up very quickly and the "suppliers" would have no choice to provide only EV's or go out of business. Then everyone that owns a home would pledge to put Solar on their roof and to not rely on the grid. These things can be done NOW. There is no reason to wait for the GND which is less and less about Climate Change which has been discussed.

Yes, I have solar and EVs. However, most people don't have a choice. They don't have the resources to install solar and they don't have the resources to buy a Tesla.

 

[d21mike]

Yes, I have solar and EVs. However, most people don't have a choice. They don't have the resources to install solar and they don't have the resources to buy a Tesla.

Do they have the resources to buy ICE? Do they require a NEW ICE or can they live with there current ICE until a EV is available that they can afford. Before going with Tesla MS I had a Lexus from 2003 - 2017. My wife had a Chevy Blazer from 1999 - 2016 and then got a Mercedes GLC for 3 years before getting a Tesla M3 07/2019. All of my kids are driving pretty old ICE Cars. one is still drive the 1999 Blazer we gave him.

Yet.... many many many NEW ICE Cars are sold every day. Again, I say if you really believe in Climate Change then continue to drive the older ICE Car until you can buy a new or used EV. Also, there are still many New Mercedes and other "expensive" cars sold every day. Are you saying those Mercedes are more affordable the a Tesla Model 3. Remember my wife had a Mercedes before getting the Model 3. Cost was not a big difference in the decision. Yet there are many Mercedes Dealers still in business while waiting for their EQ Line. There is always an excuse NOT to do what you preach. To me it is a no brainer to make the pledge to NEVER buy another ICE Car for a huge majority of people who believe in Climate Change. VW say they will not bring the ID 3 to the US because the US Buyers will NOT buy a small car so they will wait for the ID 4. Are they right?

 

[iPlug]

For the bottom 50% income and wealth, this is probably currently true. However, for the top 25%, much, much more could be done without great sacrifice. But we have not been seeing that in purchasing patterns.

 

[d21mike]

Yes, I have solar and EVs. However, most people don't have a choice. They don't have the resources to install solar and they don't have the resources to buy a Tesla.

Regarding Solar. Not sure about that. Tesla is now "renting" a small system for about $65 per month and the next size for about $130 per month. Are you saying those people that really believe in climate change can not afford to do that which is about what they are currently paying for electricity? And if they do buy an EV would that not make more sense to offset gas cost? Cost of Solar has come down.

 

[SageBrush]

So... it's our fault that we don't have choices to reduce demand?

**cough**
Choices abound, but they are less subsidized than the dirty ones.

 

[SageBrush]

Regarding Solar. Not sure about that. Tesla is now "renting" a small system for about $65 per month and the next size for about $130 per month. Are you saying those people that really believe in climate change can not afford to do that which is about what they are currently paying for electricity? And if they do buy an EV would that not make more sense to offset gas cost? Cost of Solar has come down.

Right
Or that they cannot buy LEDs
Or wear a sweater in the winter
Or take shorter showers
Or drive to public transport
Or ride a bicycle

The list is almost endless. The main issue is motivation and until the dirty alternative is expensive people will make excuses and choose the dirty alternative

 

[ladysbff]

Do younger generations care more about global warming?
44% of folks age 55 and higher aren't worried about climate change
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/...JCHS_Housing_Americas_Older_Adults_2018_1.pdf
55% of homeowners in the US are over age 50 (totaling 65 million homes)

So... almost 29 million homeowners in the US aren't worried about climate change and have no real incentive to do anything about the great suggestions listed in this thread. These are the folks who can actually afford to make the most significant impact on a residential scale re: solar. So I think educating/motivating that demographic is the most meaningful thing we can do, since time is absolutely of the essence.

To add on to that...
Homeownership rates also differ sharply by race and ethnicity. While 81 percent of white households age 50 and over own homes, the shares are significantly lower for same-aged black households (57 percent), Hispanic households (60 percent), and Asian/other households (71 percent). Indeed, the black-white homeownership gap among older households has held at 24 percentage points since 2013—the largest disparity since recordkeeping began in 1976.

 

[d21mike]

Do younger generations care more about global warming?
44% of folks age 55 and higher aren't worried about climate change
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/...JCHS_Housing_Americas_Older_Adults_2018_1.pdf
55% of homeowners in the US are over age 50 (totaling 65 million homes)

So... almost 29 million homeowners in the US aren't worried about climate change and have no real incentive to do anything about the great suggestions listed in this thread. These are the folks who can actually afford to make the most significant impact on a residential scale re: solar. So I think educating/motivating that demographic is the most meaningful thing we can do, since time is absolutely of the essence.

To add on to that...
Homeownership rates also differ sharply by race and ethnicity. While 81 percent of white households age 50 and over own homes, the shares are significantly lower for same-aged black households (57 percent), Hispanic households (60 percent), and Asian/other households (71 percent). Indeed, the black-white homeownership gap among older households has held at 24 percentage points since 2013—the largest disparity since recordkeeping began in 1976.

44% of folks age 55 and higher aren't worried about climate change

This makes perfect sense to me. As I have been saying "until you can get people to believe it" nothing will happen. The GND should be about Climate Change since that is the crisis but it is not. I think most are coming to understand it is about income redistribution and using climate change to push that agenda. That is absolutely no way to convince people we have a Climate Change Crisis.

Again, I see very little push to get people to stop buying ICE Cars and to install Solar on every roof. This should be the most important topic of discussion but it is not.

Just saw this on my Twitter feed while typing this: Top 3 solutions are "1. drive less 2. drive less 3. drive less". I did not fully read it and I believe it talks about EV's. I think top 3 should be BUY EV, BUY EV, BUY EV .....

Californians Must Drive Less

 

[ladysbff]

44% of folks age 55 and higher aren't worried about climate change

This makes perfect sense to me. As I have been saying "until you can get people to believe it" nothing will happen. The GND should be about Climate Change since that is the crisis but it is not. I think most are coming to understand it is about income redistribution and using climate change to push that agenda. That is absolutely no way to convince people we have a Climate Change Crisis.

Again, I see very little push to get people to stop buying ICE Cars and to install Solar on every roof. This should be the most important topic of discussion but it is not.

Just saw this on my Twitter feed while typing this: Top 3 solutions are "1. drive less 2. drive less 3. drive less". I did not fully read it and I believe it talks about EV's. I think top 3 should be BUY EV, BUY EV, BUY EV .....

Californians Must Drive Less

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...rs-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
"Today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power it did in 1978"
Auto Loan Delinquencies Jump To 19-Year High | Bankrate.com
As investors worry about a recession on the horizon, a record 7 million Americans have stopped paying their car loans. Here's why.
Auto loan default rates at an all time high. The "expert" reasoning for why this is happening (and why we shouldn't worry) feels very flimsy
https://content.schwab.com/web/reta...9-Modern-Wealth-Survey-findings-0519-9JBP.pdf
59% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck

Unfortunately just telling folks to buy an EV won't do much to make that a reality, when wages haven't risen fast enough to maintain a middle class lifestyle, the US is already over-leveraged with auto loans, and a full three fifths of the country are living paycheck to paycheck. Folks can't afford the down payment, let alone the car. And that's assuming they aren't already underwater with their current auto loan - which is hard to find statistics for, but is a very scary reality for many people, including multiple friends of mine!

Fortunately, EV technology is now aging, which makes the secondary market more affordable. But even a used EV with a $15k price sticker is beyond the reach of many fellow Americans.

 

[d21mike]

For most Americans, real wages have barely budged for decades
"Today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power it did in 1978"
Auto Loan Delinquencies Jump To 19-Year High | Bankrate.com
As investors worry about a recession on the horizon, a record 7 million Americans have stopped paying their car loans. Here's why.
Auto loan default rates at an all time high. The "expert" reasoning for why this is happening (and why we shouldn't worry) feels very flimsy
https://content.schwab.com/web/reta...9-Modern-Wealth-Survey-findings-0519-9JBP.pdf
59% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck

Unfortunately just telling folks to buy an EV won't do much to make that a reality, when wages haven't risen fast enough to maintain a middle class lifestyle, the US is already over-leveraged with auto loans, and a full three fifths of the country are living paycheck to paycheck. Folks can't afford the down payment, let alone the car. And that's assuming they aren't already underwater with their current auto loan - which is hard to find statistics for, but is a very scary reality for many people, including multiple friends of mine!

Fortunately, EV technology is now aging, which makes the secondary market more affordable. But even a used EV with a $15k price sticker is beyond the reach of many fellow Americans.

I will assume you have not read the prior posts on this subject because if you did you would know I am talking about people who can't afford it. And if they can not afford it do not buy a new car.

Are you aware that many high end cars are sold every day? Like Mercedes, Audi, BMW etc? Do you feel that every one of those cars are purchased by people who DO NOT believe in Climate Change?

My point is pretty much anyone can make a PLEDGE to NEVER EVER buy another ICE Car if they truly believe in Climate Change is a Crisis and there is no time to waist. Those that already have a ICE CAR they just continue to drive it until they can buy a EV. This will force manufactures to provide EV's at an affordable price or go out of business.

Maybe you think we should simply "continue" to do nothing because nothing can be done because NO ONE can STOP buying ICE CARS.

 

[iPlug]

At the moment, we should be more concerned about the top 10-20% of U.S. wealth. Like probably most on this forum, they can comfortably afford a Model 3 SR or greater or some other manufacturers BEV, solar PV, upgrading to heat pumps when their water heater or HVAC is due, and countless other meaningful energy/efficiency upgrades. Of course voting is important too.

We needs to turn the several tens of millions in this category who say “I care” to doing things that really show it.

By doing so that drives down the cost of these items and makes them more cost competitive for those further down the wealth spectrum.