Coast to coast drive happening this year for all FSD Teslas!

[timewasted]

Well yes, but it also matters where Tesla is at in their FSD development because that will determine what we can realistically expect to get now. Elon has said that what they have right now is "feature complete". Of course, we should expect Tesla to deliver everything that they promise but demanding or expecting that they give us something that they don't have yet, does not make any sense.

When I purchased my vehicle, Tesla was at the stage in their FSD development where they're just awaiting final validation before pushing out the update that achieves level 5 autonomous driving. Tesla Network was going live the very year that I purchased my car. I have more than 80,000 reasons to hold Tesla's feet to the fire. I'm betting you have a good number of reasons as well.

We were sold a product that didn't even remotely exist at the time, and still doesn't even remotely exist. The fact that I can say "I want to see what Elon has said they have had for years now" and you say "we can't really expect to see that" is what I hate so much about the general Tesla community. I truly don't care that <important person A> and <important person B> have left the Autopilot team between 2016 and now. They could have, at any point, came out and said "whoops, it looks like it'll take longer than we expected so we're stopping selling the option and compensating buyers accordingly" but they continued to proclaim that it's just around the corner. Sure they took it off the menu for a while, but still happily sold it to anyone that called up to ask about adding it.

People talk about how Tesla is saving us from the "stealerships", yet gleefully ignore the ongoing fraudulent activity that flows straight from the top of Tesla.

 

[diplomat33]

When I purchased my vehicle, Tesla was at the stage in their FSD development where they're just awaiting final validation before pushing out the update that achieves level 5 autonomous driving. Tesla Network was going live the very year that I purchased my car. I have more than 80,000 reasons to hold Tesla's feet to the fire. I'm betting you have a good number of reasons as well.

We were sold a product that didn't even remotely exist at the time, and still doesn't even remotely exist. The fact that I can say "I want to see what Elon has said they have had for years now" and you say "we can't really expect to see that" is what I hate so much about the general Tesla community. I truly don't care that <important person A> and <important person B> have left the Autopilot team between 2016 and now. They could have, at any point, came out and said "whoops, it looks like it'll take longer than we expected so we're stopping selling the option and compensating buyers accordingly" but they continued to proclaim that it's just around the corner. Sure they took it off the menu for a while, but still happily sold it to anyone that called up to ask about adding it.

People talk about how Tesla is saving us from the "stealerships", yet gleefully ignore the ongoing fraudulent activity that flows straight from the top of Tesla.

Like I said, I absolutely agree about holding Tesla accountable. They sold FSD. Many Tesla customers like you and me purchased the option. We deserve to get what we paid for and nothing less than what we paid for. I am simply saying that FSD is coming. Tesla is working on it and making progress. They don't have the finished FSD now but they will. We cannot expect to get the finished FSD now since it does not exist yet. But we can expect to get something now and the finished FSD later.

 

[TMeister]

More fodder to consider...

You gotta decide if your definition of feature complete matches others. In my book feature complete is simply that someone has coded a version of a feature from the original specification or from the story list. Doesn't mean it has to work. Doesn't mean the code ever gets exercised. It's just a little better than a stub. So one could say feature complete by the end of this year is very much possible. But it's not shipable and therefore not usable by anyone but in a controlled experiment.

 

[buttershrimp]

I have no delusions about this subject.... I fully predicted when I bought the FSD option that it would be 2-3 years before we would see it.... and even predicted that they were going to have to retrofit my car with a more capable computer. Not long after that, they announced some snazzy new chip..... and now, I'm just past the 2 year point of my purchase.

When I think back, I'm more annoyed that it took so long to get them to parity with AP1, not frustrated with the pace of FSD.

The 10.4 firmware update established parity, but it wasn't until they started utilizing 8 cameras that Tesla finally put a knee on the throat AP1 in case anyone was still confused.

FSD is coming, and yes, it will be awesome but not perfect. It will be 10 years in my opinion before you can start bragging about how you slept in the car while it's driving between cities in the some late night road trip. It's going to happen. 10 years from now, the TMC threads are going to be filled with threads created by Tesla owners that insist the folks without FSD are ruining Tesla's stellar safety statistics.

 

[SVMike]

When you say "validate", you mean use Tesla customers as crash test dummies, right?

Other car manufacturers seem able to develop their own full self driving features without forcing the public to test them. For example Nissan is releasing navigate on autopilot later this year and didn't get one single customer to beta test it.

Before I got my M3 last summer I leased a 2015 Nissan Leaf. When the lease was ~6 months from the end I got an email from Nissan asking if I wanted to test drive the new Leaf. I said yes and at the appointed time a person from corporate (not a dealer) showed up in my driveway and I went on a 1 hour drive using the beta pro pilot. This included rush hour on a freeway, city driving, etc. It was still a very early version...but a car did cut me off in a small gap on the freeway and an alarm did go off and the car did brake automatically from about 40 mph to ~20 mph.

I don't know if this really counts as a customer beta test.

 

[DrDabbles]

Interestingly, I think Elon or Karpathy actually mentioned during the Autonomy Investor Day presentation that they are working on getting it working in snow and it works pretty well.

Without reading the other 7 pages, I wanted to reply to this.

The car absolutely does not do snow properly, or at all really. If the road is covered with snow, you don't get the option to enable EAP, not that you'd want to anyway. Even better, when it's cold out snow freezes to the front bumper in front of the radar unit, and the radar stops working completely which disables EAP and automatic emergency braking.

Elon said they have not at all attempted to address snow, but that they would be working on it this winter. IMO until the car does snow and all other weather, it's not Level 5.

I guess the vision neural net can detect the tracks in the snow from other

It doesn't. I've tested this personally. It will attempt to follow the car in front, though, when it can't see lines.

or maybe detect the difference between packed snow on the roads versus undisturbed snow on the side of the road

It will never do this. To tell the difference between packed and unpacked snow, you'd need to be able to detect depth in snow, which is impossible because of how bright snow is and snow blindness.

but they said the vision actually can predict correctly where the road is even covered under snow.

It absolutely can not right now. Not at all. And I'd be willing to bet it won't be doing so "this winter" either.

 

[DrDabbles]

FSD will require a safety driver at first but later, when it gets safe enough to do so, the driver will not be required.

Full self driving means Level 5. If it can't drive with nobody in the car, then it's not Level 5 and it's not full self driving. That can't be more clearly stated. If they release something that requires a person at first, that's Level 2, 3, and maybe Level 4 if it's extremely rare.

 

[DrDabbles]

Can it? Actually mathematically, NN's may require exponentially greater data to become marginally better, depending on where you are on the curve.

Finally. I'm so sick of hearing "all Tesla needs is data". Yeah. That's like saying all we have to do is count all the sand on every beach. As they start to solve corner cases, the data they need for training will become more rare. That compounds the fact that to actually improve the global minimums, they'll need to increase data by an order of magnitude.

People are hearing marketing and regurgitating it as fact, as though they know what they're talking about in the first place.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

The 10.4 firmware update established parity, but it wasn't until they started utilizing 8 cameras that Tesla finally put a knee on the throat AP1 in case anyone was still confused.

When did they add the speed sign recognition feature?
Feature parity is still missing. Yeah, Autosteer is equal/better now, but it's not feature pared yet.

 

[diplomat33]

Without reading the other 7 pages, I wanted to reply to this.

The car absolutely does not do snow properly, or at all really. If the road is covered with snow, you don't get the option to enable EAP, not that you'd want to anyway. Even better, when it's cold out snow freezes to the front bumper in front of the radar unit, and the radar stops working completely which disables EAP and automatic emergency braking.

Elon said they have not at all attempted to address snow, but that they would be working on it this winter. IMO until the car does snow and all other weather, it's not Level 5.



It doesn't. I've tested this personally. It will attempt to follow the car in front, though, when it can't see lines.



It will never do this. To tell the difference between packed and unpacked snow, you'd need to be able to detect depth in snow, which is impossible because of how bright snow is and snow blindness.



It absolutely can not right now. Not at all. And I'd be willing to bet it won't be doing so "this winter" either.

I was talking about ways Tesla might make it work in snow in the FUTURE. I am well aware it does not do this now.

 

[diplomat33]

Full self driving means Level 5. If it can't drive with nobody in the car, then it's not Level 5 and it's not full self driving. That can't be more clearly stated. If they release something that requires a person at first, that's Level 2, 3, and maybe Level 4 if it's extremely rare.

Hello Waymo? Their cars are self-driving but have safety drivers still. Cars can be self-driving and have safety drivers. I explained this before. If the safety driver is there "just in case", but is not required for the operation of the car, then it is self-driving.

 

[conman]

When did they add the speed sign recognition feature?
Feature parity is still missing. Yeah, Autosteer is equal/better now, but it's not feature pared yet.

AP2 phantom braking is light years ahead of AP1.

 

[Ludalicious]

Think we all need to come to terms that we got swindled out of thousands of dollars. I have completely written off any chance of FSD this year. By the time it might actually exist. All want to upgrade my ride

 

[Matias]

I was talking about ways Tesla might make it work in snow in the FUTURE. I am well aware it does not do this now.

In the future I might be dating Gal Gadot

 

[banned-66611]

I don't know if this really counts as a customer beta test.

More of a customer reaction test I think. See how people will react to ProPilot and how to best describe and sell it to them.

 

[DrDabbles]

Hello Waymo? Their cars are self-driving but have safety drivers still. Cars can be self-driving and have safety drivers. I explained this before. If the safety driver is there "just in case", but is not required for the operation of the car, then it is self-driving.

Waymo's cars are not Level 5. They're Level 3. The fact that their latest press demo day had several unprotected left turns requiring intervention should make this clear.

SAE International Releases Updated Visual Chart for Its “Levels of Driving Automation” Standard for Self-Driving Vehicles

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo's cars are not Level 5. They're Level 3. The fact that their latest press demo day had several unprotected left turns requiring intervention should make this clear.

SAE International Releases Updated Visual Chart for Its “Levels of Driving Automation” Standard for Self-Driving Vehicles

I didn't say L5, I just said "self-driving". I did not specify what level. It is worth noting that SAE does allow a "safety driver" under L3/4/5 since it says that a person can be in the driver's seat. Of course, the "safety driver" cannot be involved in any of the driving in order for it to be L3/4/5.

Based on the new chart, I do think that Tesla will achieve L3 next year. Obviously, Elon wants to get to L5 since he wants the car to operate in all conditions which is why he is promoting FSD as a L5 system. But L5 is a long ways off.

Thank you for sharing that updated chart. I was not aware that SAE had released a new chart. The chart clarifies a lot of the questions that I had about the levels of autonomy. That is super helpful and informative!!!

 

[DrDabbles]

I didn't say L5, I just said "self-driving". I did not specify what level.

But thank you for sharing that updated chart. I was not aware that SAE had released a new chart. That is super helpful and informative!!!

Yeah, I think they released it because so many companies were using "self driving" to mean so many things. So they clarified the expectations.

Anyway, the thread IMO was about Tesla saying FSD would be Level 5, and that they'd use FSD to complete a coast-to-coast drive. If that's not the case, then they've moved the goalposts. Just to put my cards on the table, I don't actually think we're going to get to a Level 5 car, maybe ever. I've paid for FSD in my car because I think Tesla will add further autonomous features as they're able to run larger networks on HW3.

 

[diplomat33]

Yeah, I think they released it because so many companies were using "self driving" to mean so many things. So they clarified the expectations.

And Elon is one of the biggest offenders when it comes to misusing "self-driving" terms. I can be a big Tesla fan and still admit that.

Anyway, the thread IMO was about Tesla saying FSD would be Level 5, and that they'd use FSD to complete a coast-to-coast drive. If that's not the case, then they've moved the goalposts. Just to put my cards on the table, I don't actually think we're going to get to a Level 5 car, maybe ever. I've paid for FSD in my car because I think Tesla will add further autonomous features as they're able to run larger networks on HW3.

I don't think Tesla is moving the goal posts. They've always had L5 as the goal because they've always set the goal of Tesla cars being able to drive everywhere and in all conditions without human intervention. The issue is that Tesla was never going to just suddenly release L5 as one software update. That's not how Tesla is developing FSD. Tesla is taking an incremental approach whereby they are adding new Autopilot features one by one, gradually making Autopilot more capable until it eventually becomes L5. But Tesla is also butchering the marketing for FSD. So folks who read the FSD page or listen to Elon and naturally think that Tesla is going to release L5 think the goal posts are being moved when Tesla then announces that they are releasing a new features that still requires driver attention which is not L5.

Yes, Tesla will certainly add more Autopilot features as time goes on. And with HW3, Tesla will certainly release better NN that allow for better and new features. With HW3, I think our cars will be able to handle a lot more driving situations without driver intervention that they can't do now. And depending on the conditions and the route, our current cars, once upgraded to HW3, will be able to self-drive from A to B without driver intervention. I have no doubt that by early next year, that Tesla will be able to do a coast to coast drive with no driver intervention. That's just one specific route so it is easier to just get the car good enough to handle that route in certain conditions like say a nice sunny day. And we already know what AP can do on the roads that we drive the most. Even now, Autopilot provides some practical usefulness to many drivers depending on the driving that they do. So if Tesla adds features where Autopilot can reliably self-drive say our daily commute then that has a real practical application for us. Tesla will achieve a certain amount of practical self-driving functionality before they get to L5. It is possible that Tesla will not get to L5. Heck even the self-driving leaders like Cruise may not get to L5 if they cannot get their systems to be reliable enough. But Tesla owners will still get a lot of benefits even if Tesla does not achieve L5. Therefore, I think it is beneficial to focus on features, rather than levels of autonomy.

 

[banned-66611]

Waymo's cars are not Level 5. They're Level 3. The fact that their latest press demo day had several unprotected left turns requiring intervention should make this clear.

SAE International Releases Updated Visual Chart for Its “Levels of Driving Automation” Standard for Self-Driving Vehicles

They are level 4. Fully autonomous capability in a limited area. They have been carrying paying passengers without a driver for a while now.