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Conspiracy Theory
- Thread starter Zwalderon
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Breezy
Member
It's not an irrevocable offer. He said Tesla would not initiate litigation for "good faith" efforts to use the patents.
Drucifer
Active Member
Musk did it because he realized that Tesla was so far ahead on implementation that there was little threat of other car companies catching up AND he didn't want to spend money on attorneys/litigation defending the patents.
I seriously doubt he will have any regrets. Tesla got more from the PR value on this than it could ever cost.
physicsfita
Member
It's one thing to give open access to a patent, and another thing altogether to grant access to the know-how to implement the patent. I think Musk estimates that their real intellectual property is in the know-how they've developed.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Idea of not going with the new tech for fears of cannibalization is so old - no exec thinks along those lines now. Sounds like some kind of 70s strategy. Afterall better your products than someone else's.
The fact is - EVs (until recently atleast) have had terrible economics. You need to spend Billions to sell just a few thousand cars a year. Why bother ?
You literally have to go on a limb - stake all your hard earned reputation on what night or might not happen in the future. No wonder only Ghosn actually went full steam on this. Everyone else is hedging bets.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
Here's the future:
Tesla eventually becomes a shining star, embarrassing all other car companies day in and day out. That's not just fan boy talk, that's what I really think will happen. They have the vision, the balls, and the moxie, than none of the others have (this is at the core of the conspiracy, but it's not really a conspiracy; others just fail to understand what makes Tesla great). They won't be the biggest, but they will get big. Self-driving cars will be an occasional struggle, but they will keep pushing the boundaries with them because it's what so many people want. Tesla will not regret opening up their patents.
Toyota will fall off it's shiny pedestal they've been held up on for so long. They will fall for refusing to get in the EV game until way too late a date. They'll be around, but they won't be everyone's bread and butter anymore.
Google, like with many of their pet projects, will grow tired of their self driving car project and see not enough profit in it. Google will leave the game, possibly selling off their tech to someone else.
Apple will come up with some niche product that won't really have any extensive impact on the industry. Might not even be a whole car, accept in limited test mules, but more like an OS for a car.
Chevy will be in the game, but slowly losing ground to Ford who will be playing an effective game of catch up.
Chrysler will be dead, so lost in the past they might actually try to go backwards as a gimmick shortly before they die off for good, a destiny they richly deserve. But Jeep will survive in some form or another...though possibly still all powered by gas.
Honda will be kissing Toyota's coat tails as usual, despite having nicer cars than Toyota, again as usual.
Nissan will be cruising along somewhat nicely, but will fall deeper into a Star Trek movie pattern, where each great car is followed up with a goofy weird mobile, followed up by another great car, and so on and so forth.
Other companies just won't be able to get past their own pride and submit to Tesla's charging standard, despite Tesla's extreme lead and advantage in fast charging networks. As such, they will sloppily unite and start pushing some competing fast charging network. And we will all finally get the Beta-max / Blue-ray style format war we were all expecting.
Tesla will have the most awesome cars on the planet, with the exception of the sun visors, which will seem cheap and oddly out of place. An inside source will let slip that visors are were most of the summer interns and new engineers get their start. They will also have an entire team devoted to trying to figure out how to make the cruise control stalk function.
Elio will be advertising a 3-wheeled car that should be available in (current year + 2) years.
Someone will try to revive Fisker Karma again, this time powered by propane.
Every year or so, someone will call the police on a Tesla owner for putting children in the trunk.
Alright, much of this was just me entertaining myself, but not all of it. Some of it is true, or will be in the future.
Tesla eventually becomes a shining star, embarrassing all other car companies day in and day out. That's not just fan boy talk, that's what I really think will happen. They have the vision, the balls, and the moxie, than none of the others have (this is at the core of the conspiracy, but it's not really a conspiracy; others just fail to understand what makes Tesla great). They won't be the biggest, but they will get big. Self-driving cars will be an occasional struggle, but they will keep pushing the boundaries with them because it's what so many people want. Tesla will not regret opening up their patents.
Toyota will fall off it's shiny pedestal they've been held up on for so long. They will fall for refusing to get in the EV game until way too late a date. They'll be around, but they won't be everyone's bread and butter anymore.
Google, like with many of their pet projects, will grow tired of their self driving car project and see not enough profit in it. Google will leave the game, possibly selling off their tech to someone else.
Apple will come up with some niche product that won't really have any extensive impact on the industry. Might not even be a whole car, accept in limited test mules, but more like an OS for a car.
Chevy will be in the game, but slowly losing ground to Ford who will be playing an effective game of catch up.
Chrysler will be dead, so lost in the past they might actually try to go backwards as a gimmick shortly before they die off for good, a destiny they richly deserve. But Jeep will survive in some form or another...though possibly still all powered by gas.
Honda will be kissing Toyota's coat tails as usual, despite having nicer cars than Toyota, again as usual.
Nissan will be cruising along somewhat nicely, but will fall deeper into a Star Trek movie pattern, where each great car is followed up with a goofy weird mobile, followed up by another great car, and so on and so forth.
Other companies just won't be able to get past their own pride and submit to Tesla's charging standard, despite Tesla's extreme lead and advantage in fast charging networks. As such, they will sloppily unite and start pushing some competing fast charging network. And we will all finally get the Beta-max / Blue-ray style format war we were all expecting.
Tesla will have the most awesome cars on the planet, with the exception of the sun visors, which will seem cheap and oddly out of place. An inside source will let slip that visors are were most of the summer interns and new engineers get their start. They will also have an entire team devoted to trying to figure out how to make the cruise control stalk function.
Elio will be advertising a 3-wheeled car that should be available in (current year + 2) years.
Someone will try to revive Fisker Karma again, this time powered by propane.
Every year or so, someone will call the police on a Tesla owner for putting children in the trunk.
Alright, much of this was just me entertaining myself, but not all of it. Some of it is true, or will be in the future.
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure about that! I mean it's possible but definitely not how you think. I don't know how other car makers perform nowadays, but BMW's still growing beside Tesla. Here's BMW's sales numbers:
2010 : 1,461,166 cars
2011 : 1,668,982 cars
2012 : 1,845,186 cars (when Model S was launched)
2013 : 1,963,798 cars (increasing beside Tesla)
2014 : 2,117,965 cars (still increasing...)
The 2015 report's not done yet, but in the Q1-Q3 they have reported 6.9-8.1% increase in each quarter. (So it will be ~2.3M) And BMW isn't a big company in the light of sales numbers (since it's a premium brand).
Tesla's big master plan is to reach 500,000 sales by 2020. If it can reach this number it means it steals (let's say) 50,000 cars per brand (rough average). These big car makers sell millions of cars yearly. The biggest ones, like VW or GM, sell tens of millions! Do you think Tesla's half million matters on a market where 800-900 million (!!!) vehicles are sold cumulatively worldwide? (Trucks, buses, etc. are included, but cars are still hundreds of millions.) And don't forget, the others won't let themselves. I've always said Tesla's marching to glory is not gonna be as easy as many people think here.
And the everlasting topic:
When will they build their own charging network? The answer is very simple: NEVER! And not because they can't, they just simply don't want to bother with that. (If they had ever wanted it was done by now.) Why? Because by when the EV market runs up, the fast charging network will already be built up by other 3rd party companies (at least in the EU). It's not gonna be free, but the electricity is cheap so it won't matter that much. The SC network was a smart idea from Tesla since it's the frontier of this technology, and the free charging is a very good selling point at the beginning. But this isn't gonna be crucial in the future. Yet, if the others want to offer a free charging for their cars, they can still sign a contract with any charging network(s). Even with Tesla.
As a last thought, let me quote myself:
I believe Tesla will grow in the future, but don't even think it's gonna be a fairy tale! This is a bumpy road through a minefield and there's even a marginal possibility of fail.
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I think given the stupid EU laws governing chargers and requiring CCS which is out there after 2017 - Tesla will invest heavily in supercharger installations in EU up to the cutoff date for the law. At which point they will cease building new superchargers except in non-EU countries.
Which is great for the rest of us who will get more supercharger love.
There are some significant lacking routes that they have little choice of finishing before the launch of M3...
This is exactly my fear too... (Living within the EU/EAA marked) They did expect that the law would be in place in Germany from 1/1 this year, so they did accelerate the build-out in Germany last year, and by that signalling that this is what may be happening.
That was my thought.
So if that's happening then all the EU law is doing is guaranteeing that where the law applies will see no more free to use superchargers.
But at least the EU car manufacturers will be happy, which is really the aim of the law. It's got nothing to do with improving public charging.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
90% of the network is fine... even with the Model 3 I don't think you're going get lines in Gallup NM... 4 bays is probably enough. There are only a handful of SCs that need more capacity. Also filling in gaps and more destination charging will help A LOT.
"Tesla has offered open access to their patents. Why in the hell would they do that? Frankly I have no idea."
I was actually one of the few on my part of Internet and Twitter to advocate for doing this - years before others even considered it.
2 really simple answers. 1 Tesla wants electric vehicles to become norm - they have stated this since beginning. If open sourcing some of their intellectual property will advance that cause - they have shown they are willing to do so. 2nd - look at success of Android - Google has competed with closed source giant many of you love to mention here - Apple - how? With open source technology.
Granted maybe do to cost or other factors - GM wasn't smart enough to consider using those open sourced patents to make BOLT Supercharger capable. So far traditional players haven't take advantage of this gift. Either I've missed something along the line or they are just to set in their ways to be enlightened by a new way of thinking / operating.
Lutz doing his thing with extended range trucks - we shall see how well that turns out.
Wired article might be considered fluff piece - but GM CEO Mary Barra sure doesn't seem like an EV hater.
How GM Beat Tesla to the First True Mass-Market Electric Car - not a truth as of yet
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mary-barra/
"I wonder will there be the day that Musk regrets he ever offered open access to Tesla's patents?"
He shouldn't = it's a new way of thinking - others are still stuck in old school mindset. Many companies run on open source technology that isn't closed patents. Having courage to be open is courage to innovate.
I was actually one of the few on my part of Internet and Twitter to advocate for doing this - years before others even considered it.
2 really simple answers. 1 Tesla wants electric vehicles to become norm - they have stated this since beginning. If open sourcing some of their intellectual property will advance that cause - they have shown they are willing to do so. 2nd - look at success of Android - Google has competed with closed source giant many of you love to mention here - Apple - how? With open source technology.
Granted maybe do to cost or other factors - GM wasn't smart enough to consider using those open sourced patents to make BOLT Supercharger capable. So far traditional players haven't take advantage of this gift. Either I've missed something along the line or they are just to set in their ways to be enlightened by a new way of thinking / operating.
Lutz doing his thing with extended range trucks - we shall see how well that turns out.
Wired article might be considered fluff piece - but GM CEO Mary Barra sure doesn't seem like an EV hater.
How GM Beat Tesla to the First True Mass-Market Electric Car - not a truth as of yet
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mary-barra/
"I wonder will there be the day that Musk regrets he ever offered open access to Tesla's patents?"
He shouldn't = it's a new way of thinking - others are still stuck in old school mindset. Many companies run on open source technology that isn't closed patents. Having courage to be open is courage to innovate.
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Well, I don't think they will stop the build out "for ever", but it is a real danger that they pause the build out a few years. Just long enough that the others manufactures have to get their own network to sell their cars, or see all the customers that need long distances travelling will just buy Teslas. But on the other hand, the latest quotes from Musk may indicate that they indeed will open their network for everybody, so we will just have to wait and see...
Agree... :/
I'm not 100% sure, but in my interpretation Tesla will still be able to offer free charging, but it has to make the new chargers available for everybody "for a reasonable price". Problem with that is these charging stalls will be occupied by somebody all the time, and it makes difficult for Tesla's customers to use these chargers.
Yes, 90% is done... for the current market. But half of Europe (the Eastern and Southern countries) is still uncovered. These areas are not a big EV markets nowadays (Tesla is not even present officially in these countries) but the demand will increase in the next few years and this silly, new EU law makes it difficult for Tesla to expand its SC network to these countries later. And even in the Western countries the SC network should be expanded as the demand increases. And from the next year, if Tesla builds a charger, it builds it for everybody, not just for Tesla customers. This is the main problem.
The industry was there to produce enough iPhones to meet demand and sub-$1000 electronics are usually pretty easy to mass produce. A car is a complex piece of machinery which practically defines heavy industry. About the only thing more complex than a car that is mass produced are aircraft (and there the production rate in the aircraft industry is tiny compared to cars, Airbus and Boeing's combined production for 2015 was less than 10% Tesla's production).
The bottom line is there industrial infrastructure to mass produce electric cars isn't there and won't be there for at least a decade, probably closer to two. Global car and light truck production is around 100 million vehicles a year and Tesla is talking about 1 Gigafactory to enable production of 500,000 cars a year. To completely switch over to electric cars would require 200 Gigafactories. Someday those factories will be built, but that level of investment isn't being done by anyone right now because everyone knows battery chemistry is going to improve over the next decade. Nobody knows how much or how different production techniques will be, but everyone knows it will change. Everyone is scared about going all in on one technology and then find they are on the wrong side of history. Solyndra is out of business because they went with one solar panel technology and others went with a newer and cheaper technology.
While I think there is a certain amount of foot dragging in the car business because they don't like electric cars and it's too much of a paradigm shift, but there is also the less cynical reason that everyone except Tesla and some other start ups are only dipping toes in the water until they know how battery technology is going to sort out.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Coverage needs to be improved... I meant that 90% of the network has sufficient capacity for >1M EVs... there are 6 bays in Santa Rosa NM... I don't expect to see lines there for a long time...
There are only 5 or 6 SCs that need more bays to accommodate increased Model 3 traffic.
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