Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

Herd immunity is here! Thanks be to the Most High!

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext

These numbers would imply about 15% seroprevalence as of today, given the delay from when the study was taken.

NY seems a bit high to me but maybe it is that high? I didn’t read the details of how they corrected to the general seroprevalence from their sample population. I also have a hard time believing the ~0% numbers in many states - I would guess many/most of those states are over 1-2%.

In general not too convinced by this study at all, but their overall answer may be correct (10%, now 15%).

View attachment 592445

These are dialysis patients. NY is going to be far higher than NJ simply because the poverty rate and therefore living/coping arrangement is dramatically different from one to the other. Impoverished people in urban areas on the other hand likely can't avoid constant(if moderate) viral contact. This might not cause infection and antibody production in healthy people, but it sure will for severe diabetics.

A dataset like this will probably show dramatic extremes as dialysis patients of average and above means(who aren't already dead) will be able to take the most extreme cautions. Similarly for poor dialysis patients in rural areas, they'll just isolate. The remainder of the population in those areas is FAR more likely to have antibodies than people who only leave the house for dialysis under strict protocol.

I think this supports my conclusion that NYC has(at least at one point) been completely saturated and the various other regions are somewhere between 10% and 50%. With the behavior I'm seeing in New Jersey and what we're reading about in Florida, knowing the ability of this virus to spread, it's hard for me to believe most areas aren't either completely saturated now or will be by Thanksgiving. ("total saturation" implying there's enough covid19 floating around to have a pretty good chance of infecting anyone susceptible to infection).

Harkening aaaaaaaaalllll the way back to the beginning of the thread, this pandemic is roughly following the reaction to Swine Flu. Suspected limited spread and very high lethality at first......8 months later we realize 20% of the globe has been infected. The only major difference being this is purely novel so tons and tons of older people are dying rather than limited numbers of young people with the Swine Flu pandemic of 2009.

I just don't see a scenario where we actually count 7M+ cases with our moronic testing system, and there aren't in reality at least 10x more cases/infections. Either way, 7M or 70M+ infections, I don't see how that doesn't equal nearly total saturation of most major metro areas. Doesn't seem physically possible for even 7M cases to be spread widely amongst 330M completely noncompliant humans and it not be everywhere.

Sorry for yet another rambling nonsensical pop-in post. The numbers are just starting to get weird.

Also, how are we not outrage to be relying on 3rd party dialysis tests for our data 8 months into a pandemic?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think this supports my conclusion that NYC has(at least at one point) been completely saturated and the various other regions are somewhere between 10% and 50%.

. ("total saturation" implying there's enough covid19 floating around to have a pretty good chance of infecting anyone susceptible to infection).

Not sure what this means. Most certainly NYC is not saturated by your definition. In fact it is probably one of the least saturated metro areas by your definition.

Suspected limited spread and very high lethality at first......8 months later we realize 20% of the globe has been infected.

Huh? We've been through these numbers before. It's not the same trajectory as swine flu at all. The expected IFR for C19 has been REMARKABLY stable - right around 0.7-1% were the initial expectations after a month or two of spread and analysis of results, and what was widely publicized! (Not to be confused with the CFR of 3.4% that the WHO discussed - not the same at all.)

I just don't see a scenario where we actually count 7M+ cases with our moronic testing system, and there aren't in reality at least 10x more cases/infections.

The CDC estimates about 30 million infections, but that's likely a dated estimate so 45 million appears to be the approximate consensus right now.

Also, how are we not outrage to be relying on 3rd party dialysis tests for our data 8 months into a pandemic?

Yeah it is pretty outrageous. But the CDC IS doing sampling. The problem is their nationwide sampling lags. It's almost certainly due to lack of funding and a lack of leadership focus on understanding the spread. Certain people in charge know what the answer likely is, they are saying differently than what they think (they're saying we're close to herd "mentality"), so they don't want to have the actual spread known or backed by actual data. So we have to guess. Which is outrageous.

Doesn't seem physically possible for even 7M cases to be spread widely amongst 330M completely noncompliant humans and it not be everywhere.

Many people are "compliant." By definition if you look at a place where there are a bunch of people being non-compliant, you will get a overestimate of the amount of non-compliance.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I just don't see a scenario where we actually count 7M+ cases with our moronic testing system, and there aren't in reality at least 10x more cases/infections. Either way, 7M or 70M+ infections, I don't see how that doesn't equal nearly total saturation of most major metro areas. Doesn't seem physically possible for even 7M cases to be spread widely amongst 330M completely noncompliant humans and it not be everywhere.

It really depends on where you are. San Diego County has had about 1400 cases/100k, Miami-Dade County has had 6260 cases/100k!
I doubt it's because people in San Diego aren't susceptible... Going to be a long road to herd immunity here.
Your track record on predictions is pretty bad BTW.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please, I had 136k when y'all were at 2M deaths. Not my fault we decided to kill off an extra 150k for no particular reason!

Still claiming final IFR prediction accuracy title with .18% when all is said and done.

Hard to read back through a the OT what's this looney thread's concesus guess on covid spread through the fall/winter? 300k total deaths or more?

 

[JRP3]

Please, I had 136k when y'all were at 2M deaths. Not my fault we decided to kill off an extra 150k for no particular reason!

"y'all" were never at 2M deaths, that's a fantasy you keep promoting. We all knew you were wrong and we all still know it.

 

[Norbert]

Please, I had 136k when y'all were at 2M deaths. Not my fault we decided to kill off an extra 150k for no particular reason!

Still claiming final IFR prediction accuracy title with .18% when all is said and done.

Hard to read back through a the OT what's this looney thread's concesus guess on covid spread through the fall/winter? 300k total deaths or more?

It doesn't depend on the dynamics of COVID-19 itself anymore. (Besides your IFR number is way off.)

It depends on what we will do. 2M deaths is still possible if we keep Rt at or above 1.0, which it seems we currently do.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Please, I had 136k when y'all were at 2M deaths. Not my fault we decided to kill off an extra 150k for no particular reason!

Yes. Long term, best case, I’d expect about 3000 dead.

I mean, I suppose I could use this as an argument for why my prediction of 3000 dead (March 22nd) turned out to be wrong. Or I could just say: I was really wrong.

I made the mistake of assuming:
1) There was less virus in the country than there already was at that point
2) We'd actually do something about it. (Your argument.)

There was no way my prediction was EVER going to be right at that time. We had probably 40k deaths baked in at that point. At least I said best case (but it was still impossible at the time of that prediction).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"y'all" were never at 2M deaths, that's a fantasy you keep promoting. We all knew you were wrong and we all still know it.

2x the US deaths from flu season 2018 was a top caliber guess(prior to St Paddys Day!) and would've been right on the nose with literally any other human being in the WH. I've been hosed.

 

[bkp_duke]

2x the US deaths from flu season 2018 was a top caliber guess(prior to St Paddys Day!) and would've been right on the nose with literally any other human being in the WH. I've been hosed.

It would not have made an appreciable difference.

Look at the general level of STUPID in this country, it doesn't stop at the WH. This is also not the first time Americans have been STRONGLY anti-mask (look at the Anti-Mask League from 1918/19).

Someone else could have navigated it better, but to be perfectly objective, we are a stubborn group that would have done what the hell we want even if there was a hard-core lockdown order in place.

Case in point: Elon Musk.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It would not have made an appreciable difference.

That certainly appears likely to be true. I'm just grasping at logic to keep me in the running for the correct prediction prize.

 

[bkp_duke]

That certainly appears likely to be true. I'm just grasping at logic to keep me in the running for the correct prediction prize.

There's a prize? Damn, missed that.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There's a prize? Damn, missed that.

There was a poll but I don't think any prize is offered.
TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool
I guessed 0.05%-0.07% and we're at .063%! Unfortunately it's not the end of 2020 yet so I think I've lost.
Interesting that the most popular selection, 0.1%-0.2%, is very likely to be right! Wisdom of crowds.

 

[Norbert]

There was a poll but I don't think any prize is offered.
TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool
I guessed 0.05%-0.07% and we're at .063%! Unfortunately it's not the end of 2020 yet so I think I've lost.
Interesting that the most popular selection, 0.1%-0.2%, is very likely to be right! Wisdom of crowds.

So what do you think will happen when we reach 0.2% ? What will make it stop there, and not earlier or later?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Just our monthly report from north of the border in British Columbia. We are a population of 5.4 million people. Unfortunately we have seen a huge jump in new daily cases in the last month. Literally about 800 percent increase. We are in the second wave. Our health ministry now reports a daily average of 89 new cases per day. Still only an average of 1 death per day but that is on a 3 week lag so wait for it.

As doctor Bonny our health officer reminds us every day on our 3 o’clock provincial briefing.

Be kind.
Be calm
Be safe.

 

[Daniel in SD]

So what do you think will happen when we reach 0.2% ? What will make it stop there, and not earlier or later?

We will reach herd immunity (with a vaccine!) before we reach 0.2%.

 

[Norbert]

We will reach herd immunity (with a vaccine!) before we reach 0.2%.

So that point in time is defined by the appearance of a vaccine, not by the percentage being a limit?

 

[Daniel in SD]

So that point in time is defined by the appearance of a vaccine, not by the percentage being a limit?

Well, I think there will be vaccines but I think even without them total deaths will be below 0.2% of the population. Widespread use of rapid tests may reduce R0 and help protect vulnerable populations. Treatments will probably improve further.

 

[bkp_duke]

Well, I think there will be vaccines but I think even without them total deaths will be below 0.2% of the population. Widespread use of rapid tests may reduce R0 and help protect vulnerable populations. Treatments will probably improve further.

I thought we were talking IFR, not % of population dead. Very different calculations.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I thought we were talking IFR, not % of population dead. Very different calculations.

Yeah, I think IFR is probably about 0.5% (and was about 1% before doctors learned how to treat it better).
As far as I can tell @TheTalkingMule calculates IFR with the denominator being the entire population (he's always talking about the whole population being "exposed").
Figuring out how many people will get it (really how many older people will get it) is obviously just a guess. Things aren't looking good for this fall and winter though. Very thankful that I live in San Diego with our one season!

 

[Norbert]

Well, I think there will be vaccines but I think even without them total deaths will be below 0.2% of the population. Widespread use of rapid tests may reduce R0 and help protect vulnerable populations. Treatments will probably improve further.

Testing will certainly help, however it needs to be part of a larger approach. If the response will be immediate further "re-opening"s, dropping mask use and other measures, then the benefit will not be converted into success and it will not bring Rt below 1.

So I think it still depends on what we do. We may be saved by the bell (vaccine) this time, then what about the next virus? I remember the South Korean expert talking about the observation that there is an increase in new viruses. Have we learned how to handle a pandemic?