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On the ground China is a chaotic mess, but the Chinese Communist Party controls the media and they have legions of people who monitor social media for any mentions of anything that hints of news going around that is contrary to official news.
China sentences Zhan Zhang to 4 years for reporting on COVID in Wuhan
.... all the things that epidemiologists predicted would happen if we were incompetent have come to pass.
Competence is hard. Most successful countries stop it at the border. That ship (or plane) sailed for us in early February. Even if we'd quarantined inbound international passengers on day one we don't control out land borders, so it would have come in soon enough.
I think I need to take a break from this thread, tbh.
Yeah, I'm now getting ads like this!

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That ship (or plane) sailed for us in early February. Even if we'd quarantined inbound international passengers on day one we don't control out land borders, so it would have come in soon enough.

Yeah, but it's weird, because now that it's widespread, and because we have porous borders, it seems like the attitude is now "there's nothing we can do about it." It's very strange! Obviously, we can get rid of it, if we want to! It's very well established what is required. It just requires the will and authority to do so.

(And: we do, generally speaking, control our land borders! Sure, we do have hundreds of thousands of illegal border crossings, but that's not that difficult a problem to deal with at a public health level. You just have to have a plan to deal with that issue by making sure illegal immigrants can get tested without any fear of repercussions - that's clearly in the public interest.) Right now, our problem is obviously not illegal border crossings. Get a system in place for the border issue right now, and keep working down the pareto in the meantime. When we get to the point where the border issue is #1 in the pareto, then fix it!

Another thing we can do to crush the border problem is to crush the pandemic in Mexico. This would also not be that difficult to do; I'm sure they'd appreciate the help.

China continues to have cases inside the country (from border crossing, etc.), and they continue to crush it.

What seems clear to me at this point in the pandemic is that all countries that have the objective of nearly zero cases, have nearly zero cases. So clearly it can be controlled if desired.
 
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The NYT has a story today by Pam Belluck about several long-haul patients who still month after month later are requiring multiple hospitalizations for different aspects, really devasting to their normal life. The article also looks briefly at several studies of what hospitals have seen to date on these type of cases. Have to wonder what will happen to these people down the road. Will they be able to have coverage for medical care and will it ever get better for them? If the number of these cases grows what does that mean for hospitals? Hope you can read the article. I have a subscription but not sure the link will be viewable for you. Worth a read.

"...Now, studies reveal that a significant subset of patients are having to return to hospitals, sometimes repeatedly, with complications triggered by the disease or by the body’s efforts to defeat the virus.

Even as vaccines give hope for stopping the spread of the virus, the surge of new cases portends repeated hospitalizations for more patients, taxing medical resources and turning some people’s path to recovery into a Sisyphean odyssey that upends their lives."

He Was Hospitalized for Covid-19. Then Hospitalized Again. And Again.
 
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China continues to have cases inside the country (from border crossing, etc.), and they continue to crush it.
China is the only country to suppress a large outbreak, which they did by brute force. Not an option here. They also restrict internal movement via phone app permissions and track people''s movements at all times. Again, not gonna happen here. And good luck ordering all 10m people in a major US city to line up for mandatory nasal swab PCR testing. China also strictly controls their borders.
What seems clear to me at this point in the pandemic is that all countries that have the objective of nearly zero cases, have nearly zero cases.
You keep saying it's easy, but it's not. South Korea is the model for test and trace, but even they never fully contained their small initial outbreak. They now average 1000 cases/day and 20 deaths (3x their initial peak). This implies they only catch about 1 in 3 infections.

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At least S. Korea tried, of course, and delaying spread saved perhaps 50k lives there. All while (until now) avoiding large-scale lockdowns.

The US never even tried. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, etc. locked travel down one day one. 100% testing and 14 day quarantine. Heck, Beijing only realized Wuhan officials were lying last January because Thailand, Japan and Korea caught infected inbound travelers. In the US health professionals and Dems opposed travel restrictions as racist. Did any speak out against the summer protests, despite the obvious hypocrisy? US health professionals also opposed contact tracing phone apps and Michael Mina-style mass home testing over turf issues. Instead they preached masks, with CDC director Redfield insanely saying a surgical mask provides more protection than a vaccine! And that masking would eliminate the virus in 6 weeks.

And all that's before we even get into President Bleach's aggressive incompetence, right wing denialism and HCQ nuttiness. Or politicians who preach sacrifice and issue orders for the common folk then go on trips or throw big restaurant birthday parties. Fighting this means temporarily casting aside your internationalist idealogy, turf protection and/or big government hatred to make COVID the #1 priority. Very few US leaders actually did that.
 
Maybe in a few places with reported outbreaks (or in people who have been immunized). But in general, the virus never attained widespread community transmission in China, so I doubt there are many places where people have antibodies. They just crushed it, ruthlessly and effectively.

Have an outbreak in a city? Test everyone in the city in a couple days, lock everyone down for a couple days until you get results. Isolate positive cases and all of their close contacts for a week or two, and move on (continuing to use common sense precautions like masks in higher risk areas). That was (part of) their strategy.

Covid-19: China tests entire city of Kashgar in Xinjiang

It perpetually mystifies me why we are not doing this. We just have to do 50 million tests a day for a while. It would be so simple and easy. This is not a difficult task to execute. It's only 50 million tests a day!!! Think of how many breakfasts we make each day in this country!
We are 10 months into this pandemic in the US and we can't handle the testing that is being done now. Here anyway it is now taking 2-3 days to get a result back. 3 months ago results were back in less than 24 hours. I have no idea if this is the case in the rest of the country, but there is no way my county could test everyone in a couple days. And keeping people indoors for a couple days, good luck with that. These idiots here are whining about not being able to eat in an indoor restaurant for the 3 weeks our Governor said that all indoor dining had to close. The order for indoor dining is supposed to expire on January 4th and was just to tamp down the holiday traffic. Our county has no health department so it falls on the state health department. The local DA is an idiot and has told local police departments not to enforce any of the Governor's orders.

At least for the first time our state government is starting to hold the violators accountable.
55 More Defiant Pennsylvania Restaurants Ordered Closed -- Some Possibly For Good
 
You keep saying it's easy, but it's not. South Korea is the model for test and trace, but even they never fully contained their small initial outbreak. They now average 1000 cases/day and 20 deaths (3x their initial peak). This implies they only catch about 1 in 3 infections.

This would equate to about 6000 cases (18k infections) a day in the US. I think that would be generally regarded as a success.

I think we're on the same page: We're not even trying. It's "easy" to keep infections to a minimum if you actually make that the goal. We have much, much greater resources to bring to bear than even South Korea (an advanced nation, but they cannot secure the means of production for elimination of a pandemic that the United States can).

China is the only country to suppress a large outbreak, which they did by brute force. Not an option here. They also restrict internal movement via phone app permissions and track people''s movements at all times. Again, not gonna happen here. And good luck ordering all 10m people in a major US city to line up for mandatory nasal swab PCR testing. China also strictly controls their borders.

No, that is not an option, strictly doing what they are doing. The idea is to take their ideas and do even better! And we can definitely do 50 million non-mandatory, free, antigen based tests, with free orthogonal antigen and PCR tests also provided for any positive results. That's the beauty of it - it does not have to be mandatory. Nearly no one WANTS to be sick. Very few people WANT to spread the disease. Most people would love to have access to an N95 or P100 respirator. Most people would love to have free and easy access to testing no matter what the socioeconomic level.

There's no reason at this point that everyone who wants (especially the vulnerable) can't be walking around with P100 full-face respirators, or N95 masks, if they prefer, for free. And there's no reason you can't pick up a coronavirus test for free at every corner. And there's no reason every single student and teacher can't be tested every day. There's no reason the same can't be done at all critical businesses. There's literally no reason at all that this stuff can't happen in the United States. We have essentially unlimited resources for this endeavor.

The problem, as you say, is that we didn't even try, and the incompetence leaked down (and continues to leak down) from the top. The stupidity about speaking the truth about travel restrictions (we should have shut down all travel until every traveler could be tested prior to boarding a plane, with a negative result) and their effectiveness (never mind that the ones we employed were useless). We should have told people who participated in protests to always wear a mask, and to impress upon them that they MUST adhere to a 14-day post protest strict quarantine after the gathering. The instant antigen test debacle is insane. The masking nonsense is insane. Masks work really really well. The hypocrisy of the politicians who dined out did irreparable harm to public compliance. It's just a disaster through and through.
 
now. Here anyway it is now taking 2-3 days to get a result back. 3 months ago results were back in less than 24 hours. I have no idea if this is the case in the rest of the country, but there is no way my county could test everyone in a couple days.

It's unclear to me whether when China does this mass testing that they are doing PCR (I think they might be - of course they can, since they have massive test coverage, for the minuscule number of cases they have, and can focus almost all tests in the country on one city at a time). But for the US what makes sense given the utter sh**show is fast antigen tests which cost less than $1 and take 15 minutes, and are self-administered. Positives can be followed up with an orthogonal antigen test, and PCR. And of course do these every day to make sure that false negatives are not missed.
 
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One of the arguments people had against masks and lock-downs was "we are just going to catch this eventually, so why prolong the inevitable?"

Little did they know that the vaccine(s) would be so effective... Now we are at a sad point where the vaccine(s) are tantalizingly close just as the floodgates open on the outbreak.
I wonder how many people who catch the virus in January just before they are offered vaccine will have wished that everyone had been more careful in 2020? ("Hindsight is 20/20...")
 
It's unclear to me whether when China does this mass testing that they are doing PCR (I think they might be - of course they can since they have massive test coverage, for the minuscule number of cases they have and can focus almost all tests in the country on one city at a time). But for the US what makes sense given the utter sh**show is fast antigen tests which cost less than $1 and take 15 minutes, and are self-administered. Positives can be followed up with an orthogonal antigen test, and PCR. And of course do these every day to make sure that false negatives are not missed.
Apparently they are doing those antigen quick tests in Germany. Before Christmas my daughter was volunteering in a nursing home and they did the quick test on anyone that came in the door so they could allow visits.
 
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Apparently they are doing those antigen quick tests in Germany. Before Christmas my daughter was volunteering in a nursing home and they did the quick test on anyone that came in the door so they could allow visits.

Yeah, due to "reasons" we can't do that in the United States. Hopefully the new administration has a plan here. I am concerned that they may rely on the vaccine to eliminate the pandemic. They should come in gunning for the virus -screw the vaccine (they should be focused on the vaccine as well, of course, obviously the ROI there is probably the best - maybe we can get to 5 million shots a day - his objective of 100 million in the first 100 days is far too low, so hopefully that's a "minimum" goal and not an aspirational one). Every single lever of federal government power should be employed to bring this to a screeching halt.

There have been rumblings about doing fast antigen testing to reopen schools so hopefully that happens.

My mid 80s father caught it in Los Angeles a couple weeks back, but he had a short hospital stay and is on the mend back at home now.

Does he know how he caught it?
 
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They should come in gunning for the virus -screw the vaccine (they should be focused on the vaccine as well, of course, obviously the ROI there is probably the best - maybe we can get to 5 million shots a day - his objective of 100 million in the first 100 days is far too low, so hopefully that's a "minimum" goal and not an aspirational one). Every single lever of federal government power should be employed to bring this to a screeching halt.

They are off to a slow start...
Bloomberg - U.S. Vaccinations at 200,000 a Day Run Far Short of ‘Warp Speed'
...The CDC’s latest tally, as of Monday, showed that despite the distribution of 11.45 million doses from Moderna Inc., and from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, just 2.13 million people had gotten shots. That represents about 20% of early allocations. Oregon has used only 15.3% of its supply, Ohio 14.3% and Maryland 10.9%...
 
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This is, of course, not surprising at all. This is what happens when you don't try and deliberately try to slow vaccination rates, through structural means (meaning, leaving it up to the states, and generally going "hands off" and ignoring any logistical issues). There is a true, dedicated commitment to failure right now. I am not sure why, but we can't argue that that's not what is happening, and this has been expected for quite a long time now.

To be clear, I think some of this vaccine deployment news may be overblown, due to reporting delays. But I don’t think there is any way to say that the deployment has gone well.

If we actually fixed this now (which could be done), the screwups so far would be of negligible impact. But I think we’ll be looking at another few weeks before things improve and that will cost many lives.
 
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Your understanding is flawed.

Memory B cells hold the information on how to quickly ramp up and make more B Cells to produce antibodies quickly.

Memory T cells hold the information on how to quickly ramp up and make more T Cells, which act primarily as Antigen Presenting cells for the B Cells and the innate immune system to engulf particles (virus + antibodies). But there are other APCs in the body, the infection can be mediated effectively without the Memory T cells.



T-cells are important, no one disputes that, but they are not the lynchpin to fighting SARS-CoV-2. B cells are.



Everyone keeps focusing on antibody levels, but that is also factually incorrect. The immune system is not designed to keep a high level of anitbodies floating around in our blood to every pathogen we have ever been exposed to. That would be insanely inefficient. Instead the body fights off infection, lets antibody levels wane, and keeps a handful of Memory B Cells around to rapidly divide and re-ramp Antibody production should there be re-exposure to a pathogen.

The only way you would see continued, persistent, high levels of antibody would be:
1) the body doesn't ever clear the infection
2) the body is constantly re-exposed to significant pathogen (not a passing glance, but persistent)

I have been talking all along about the body's memory about previous infections and looking for that. Other than what you say about memory B-cells here, everything I have read everywhere else describes the memory of past infections as residing in the T-cells. Such as this article from the Science Daily:
How the immune system remembers viruses: Immune response: memory T cells are formed earlier than previously thought

An excerpt:
To bring the infection under control and maximize the defenses against the virus, these few antigen-specific T cells start dividing rapidly and develop into effector T cells. These kill virus-infected host cells and then die off themselves once the infection is cleared. Some of these short-lived effector cells -- according to the generally accepted theory -- turn into memory T cells, which persist in the organism long term. In case the same pathogen enters the body again, memory T cells are already present and ready to fight the invader more swiftly and effectively than during the first encounter.

I am unfortunately famous for not remembering the terms for things very well (a side effect of dyslexia). Internally I don't care what things are called, only the concept for things is important. For testing possible long term immunity for COVID, we need to be testing for whatever is holding the memory for making the antigen. Most sources call them memory T-cells, you call them memory B-cells. They could be called fizzy widgets as far as I'm concerned, I'm most focused on the concept.

I was using the terminology I have seen in many articles such as the one linked above. As I understand it Adaptive Biotech's test claims to be looking for those memory cells. If you see a problem in their test, please enlighten me. You seem to be the only source saying anything negative about their test. If there is a problem with it, I want to know.

The NYT has a story today by Pam Belluck about several long-haul patients who still month after month later are requiring multiple hospitalizations for different aspects, really devasting to their normal life. The article also looks briefly at several studies of what hospitals have seen to date on these type of cases. Have to wonder what will happen to these people down the road. Will they be able to have coverage for medical care and will it ever get better for them? If the number of these cases grows what does that mean for hospitals? Hope you can read the article. I have a subscription but not sure the link will be viewable for you. Worth a read.

"...Now, studies reveal that a significant subset of patients are having to return to hospitals, sometimes repeatedly, with complications triggered by the disease or by the body’s efforts to defeat the virus.

Even as vaccines give hope for stopping the spread of the virus, the surge of new cases portends repeated hospitalizations for more patients, taxing medical resources and turning some people’s path to recovery into a Sisyphean odyssey that upends their lives."

He Was Hospitalized for Covid-19. Then Hospitalized Again. And Again.

I've been thinking for months that we should be thinking about COVID like polio, not the flu. It kills some people short term and it looks like that's around 0.5%, maybe as high as a little over 1%, but most people hear less than 1% chance of dying with most dying being older and they think it's an acceptable risk. However recent studies are showing that as much as 1/3 of people who had it are having some kind of long haul symptoms. Many of these are relatively minor such as more fatigue, but some percentage are left with permanent organ damage or permanent nervous system damage severe enough to ruin their lives.

I read many months ago that about 20% of cases required hospitalization and of those who recovered, about half had permanent organ damage. That's about 10% of infections. Even if it's really lower because of undetected cases it's still about 3-5%. On top of that most of the long haul survivors never had a case bad enough to need to go to the hospital. They just can't seem to get rid of all the symptoms. Some of these people are so fatigued all the time they sleep all night then have to nap several times during the day.

Even if it's just 10% who have life affecting problems that are permanent or very long term, that's a significant hit to the population and the economy. Many of these people will need ongoing medical help, quite a few will need to find new careers or won't be able to work at all, and we will probably see a fair number die prematurely over the next few years.

The stupid policy of going for herd immunity in the US means the US may end up with the largest percapita population of COVID disabled in the developed world.
 
Yeah, due to "reasons" we can't do that in the United States. Hopefully the new administration has a plan here. I am concerned that they may rely on the vaccine to eliminate the pandemic. They should come in gunning for the virus -screw the vaccine (they should be focused on the vaccine as well, of course, obviously the ROI there is probably the best - maybe we can get to 5 million shots a day - his objective of 100 million in the first 100 days is far too low, so hopefully that's a "minimum" goal and not an aspirational one). Every single lever of federal government power should be employed to bring this to a screeching halt.

There have been rumblings about doing fast antigen testing to reopen schools so hopefully that happens.

Everything I have seen from Biden indicates he's taking this as serious as a heart attack and plans to fight the virus with everything possible. He has said that it's going to be six months in a best case scenario before enough people are vaccinated to start creating herd immunity. And he's said it's vital to do everything we can to curb infection and support medical care until the vaccine does the job.

His virus task force is competent people who know what they are doing.

This is, of course, not surprising at all. This is what happens when you don't try and deliberately try to slow vaccination rates, through structural means (meaning, leaving it up to the states, and generally going "hands off" and ignoring any logistical issues). There is a true, dedicated commitment to failure right now. I am not sure why, but we can't argue that that's not what is happening, and this has been expected for quite a long time now.

A lot has been said about the US factories in WW II or some other factor winning the war, but the real secret weapon was logistics. In the 1940s the US military and civilian government became masters at logistics and ultimately that was what enabled the Allies to win the war. Logistics was critical to getting goods from the factories to the fronts, training the people to fight the war, delivering supplies to keep the pointy end of the spear sharp, and the nuts and bolts of every major operation of the war.

Logistics isn't sexy and people don't write best selling books about it, but it's the vital element that often makes the difference with any major project. The outgoing administration wouldn't know logistics if it bit them on the backside.
 
My mid 80s father caught it in Los Angeles a couple weeks back, but he had a short hospital stay and is on the mend back at home now.

Does he know how he caught it?

He isn't sure. He tried to be careful. He stayed at home mostly, but did make trips to the bank & grocery store in the weeks before he got sick.
He said he always wore his mask, but he said the streets around his neighborhood were filled with other people without masks, so his theory is he just caught it from someone walking past him on the sidewalk even though he was wearing a mask.