Coronavirus

[nwdiver]

Actually within the first day or so they knew it came from the first US case from Wuhan - the phylogenetic results supported that with very high likelihood. That’s why they got serious about social distancing and work from home within days.

Well.... yeah.... I mean in terms of contact tracing. Knowing it's from Wuhan for containment is about as useful as a map telling you what continent you're on for navigation.

 

[EVNow]

By the time WA state had its first confirmed case they had no clue where that case had come from.

That particular info is not correct. This was a patient who had returned from Wuhan in Jan 19. His contacts were traced, he was quarantined and the virus sequenced.

1st U.S. Case Of Coronavirus Confirmed In Washington State

A resident of Washington state in the Seattle area is infected. The man had traveled to central China to the city of Wuhan, where the virus was first discovered. It has killed at least 17 people, and scientists now say humans can transmit the virus to one another.
​

17 killed in Wuhan. Such a far off world ...

 

[RobStark]

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually within the first day or so they knew it came from the first US case from Wuhan - the phylogenetic results supported that with very high likelihood. That’s why they got serious about social distancing and work from home within days.

In the press conference this morning, Trump was asked whether he would ask for all states to do a shelter in place or equivalent order. His answer was no, and his rationale was that “some states have just a few cases, so they are fine.” (Paraphrasing.) He’s leaving it up to the states to decide. This is a fatal mistake, and a repeat of his mistake from two and a half months ago, when he believed that “low numbers” were good. He (apparently?) simply cannot process what is going to happen next. The catastrophe in NYC will unfold, but as that starts to ramp down, 10-15 days later these other unchecked infections will explode in the states that are currently not shelter in place. It will be a rolling nightmare which will extend the nationwide lockdown.

I am sure Trump is receiving a lot of input from experts to call for a nationwide lockdown. He also probably has access to model output for all possible proposed scenarios, and they won’t be good!) But due to stubbornness (?), he’s not doing it. This decision (or lack of a decision) will likely cost over a trillion dollars of additional lost output...just estimating.

I expect we will get a nationwide lockdown within a week or so, but by then the damage will be more than twice as high as it is now.

Truly unfortunate, and quite predictable.

I don't disagree, but you should also be castigating the governors of those states.

 

[nwdiver]

That particular info is not correct. This was a patient who had returned from Wuhan in Jan 19. His contacts were traced, he was quarantined and the virus sequenced.

1st U.S. Case Of Coronavirus Confirmed In Washington State

A resident of Washington state in the Seattle area is infected. The man had traveled to central China to the city of Wuhan, where the virus was first discovered. It has killed at least 17 people, and scientists now say humans can transmit the virus to one another.
​

17 killed in Wuhan. Such a far off world ...

Ah... maybe it was the 2nd case then; IIRC they had a case they couldn't trace back outside the US very soon after and were forced to make the assumption it had been circulating undetected possibly for weeks.

 

[kbM3]

How I would deal with CV-19

The current “flatten the curve” strategy is a result of medical advisors constraining their options with a bad economic assumption and then governments not realising their medical advice contains an economic fallacy.
Flatten the Curve essentially means maintain enough social distancing to balance the health service on the edge of collapse until a vaccine is rolled out in 6-12 months. Due to the intensive care rate and the infectiousness of this virus, it looks like keeping the curve beneath health service capacity requires extreme economic shutdowns of leisure, travel, retail sectors etc.

Flatten the curve is a flu policy and makes sense if the total cost of flattening is lower than than cost of killing the curve, but due to the cost of flattening in this case, killing the curve is far cheaper because it can be done in far shorter period of time.

We know from Wuhan and common sense that 6 weeks full lockdown excluding non essential work, together with N95 masks for all essential workers and for shoppers, will more or less eradicate the virus from your area. We also know from China ex Wuhan and Korea that a thorough: Test, Trace, Isolate policy can keep secondary cases to an insignificant number while allowing the economy to get back running. (Most countries are too late to move straight to a Korea strategy because the virus is so widespread they no longer have capacity for contact tracing, so first they need lockdowns to get numbers under control).

But it is possible a more targeted strategy could allow shorter lockdowns. 2 weeks full lockdown excluding non essential work in-line with Wuhan/California/NY could be enough to buy time for a more targeted strategy.

After 2 weeks lockdown, households with no suspected cases should be tested. If clear they can go back to work (with N95 masks and improved hygiene policies). With tests again performed daily to catch longer incubation periods.

Households with suspected cases should be tested after 3-4 weeks to allow extra time to catch household chain infections. If clear, they too can go back to work.

After this, the country should only open easy borders to countries that have adopted a similar “kill the curve” policy. Most countries should do this before too long, but all borders can be opened in a year or so once everyone is vaccinated.

Adopting a 4-7 week "kill the curve" strategy should allow much more thorough support for industries to allow them to quickly re-hire and ramp back up afterwards. Currently the "flatten the curve" policy is open ended and governments need to maintain borrowing capacity and dry powder to allow them to support current measures for 6 months plus which means measures are not comprehensive enough to prevent long term economic damage. It is also much harder for debt and equity markets to have confidence to fund companies to avoid bankruptcy when these shutdown measures are open ended.

I agree with your approach. It’s basically the same as detailed in the Hammer and the Dance (someone else already posted, but I’m reposting for convenience):
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don't disagree, but you should also be castigating the governors of those states.

For example, Louisiana does not have a state wide lockdown, while New Orleans just instituted one last night.

New Orleans Mayor issues 'stay home' order to slow the spread of coronavirus

 

[EVNow]

After 2 weeks lockdown, households with no suspected cases should be tested. If clear they can go back to work (with N95 masks and improved hygiene policies). With tests again performed daily to catch longer incubation periods.

LOl. This is like saying - from next Monday everyone should be given an EV and switch over to address climate change.

 

[Jetex Jim]

People struggle to get their heads around exponential growth curves. The 22,000 cases that the USA has might not seem too unremarkable. Italy has almost 54,000detected cases and the USA has a much larger population. But where on the growth curve is the USA?

Currently the 'doubling' interval for the USA is 2.2 days. (The time it takes for the number of infected cases to double). Following measures the doubling time in Italy has been stretched to 4.8 days. The doubling time for the UK is about 2.9 days.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Well.... yeah.... I mean in terms of contact tracing. Knowing it's from Wuhan for containment is about as useful as a map telling you what continent you're on for navigation.

Yeah not ideal, but it did inform their decision to lock down early. As described, it was a containment escape.

 

[Etna]

If you are looking for a good global tracking site, I find this one pretty good with fast updates (generally less than an hour) and links to sources. The US is also broken down by States.

Coronavirus Update (Live)

 

[30seconds]

For example, Louisiana does not have a state wide lockdown, while New Orleans just instituted one last night.

New Orleans Mayor issues 'stay home' order to slow the spread of coronavirus

Governors are not uniformly doing what they should be. The virus doesn't recognize state borders. This is why we have a federal government.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I don't disagree, but you should also be castigating the governors of those states.

I’m interested in fixing this problem as soon as possible, not placing blame. There is only one person who has absolute authority in this country. I’m trying to point out the mistakes in real time, with the consequences. Of course governors could take action, but all have to take action simultaneously for it to be worth it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, what’s been the response from Democratic leaders on this? I haven’t really heard Biden or Bernie about specific recommendations?

 

[EVNow]

Ah... maybe it was the 2nd case then; IIRC they had a case they couldn't trace back outside the US very soon after and were forced to make the assumption it had been circulating undetected possibly for weeks.

Yes - its the second case that they could trace and found out only because of the Seattle Flu study.

Its possible many other states had fatalities in Feb that were never attributed to Covid19. Even recently King county has been testing Feb deaths from LifeCenter and finding Covid19.

 

[EVNow]

Btw, what’s been the response from Democratic leaders on this? I haven’t really heard Biden or Bernie about specific recommendations?

Biden mostly absent - Bernie has been putting out a lot of proposals, had virtual town halls/round tables etc. Ofcourse you won't hear about it because Bernie is not covered by media.

 

[tinm]

Geez...they picked up an AP story who btw: is not a spokesperson/nor fan of Trump.

Please stop the irrational political hate during this time of international crisis.

btw: the right wing zealots who were irrational during President Obama's Administration were absolutely wrong but the irrational hate/sputum coming from the left wing during President Trump'a Administration is no question worse, particularly at this time of crisis.

Nope, no green light on both-sides-isms here. It's a false equivalence. A lot of the crisis right now is because of the current potus's incompetence, malignant narcissism, firing experts (!!!), and spewing of misinformation and ignorance--all acts deserving of concern, derision, and sputum imho. That is not what a leader does during a crisis. A leader leads but we have none right now, we have an authoritarian who is slowly setting things up for an authoritarian state. The current potus has amplified the Coronavirus crisis a hundred fold.

A nation of 329 million, tons of huge corporations with infinite facilities and resources, and we can't even get masks or ventilators? I'm reminded of the scene in the movie Patton where the general comes across a traffic jam of tanks and military transports and he jumps out and takes charge directing traffic, getting things moving again. That's what we need right now for the Coronavirus.

 

[eevee-fan]

More peanuts than I can get my hands on right now through multiple medical supply wholesalers who have absolutely zero masks of any type.

Except Halloween masks. Those are still available.

A Vader or Storm Trooper mask with N95 filter would come in handy right about now.

 

[eevee-fan]

For all the libertarian chicken littles out there claiming that the government cutting everyone a check to stay home is going to cause hyper-inflation or unsustainable debt or moral hazard think of this. 80 years ago the US went into substantial debt to pay >20% of the US population to do something that had no intrinsic economic value. Fight in WW2. The 20 years after WW2 were some of the most prosperous years the country had ever seen.

How would paying people to fight Nazis on Xbox for 3 months be any different than paying people to fight real Nazis 80 years ago (in strict economic terms)?

Money is Fake but Lives are Real.

People will spend it on TP. TP will normalize at $5 a roll.

 

[EVNow]

For example, Louisiana does not have a state wide lockdown, while New Orleans just instituted one last night.

New Orleans Mayor issues 'stay home' order to slow the spread of coronavirus

It seems to me - large cities/towns should be under lock down. Rural areas probably can still do isolation/contract tracing. County executives / mayors should do the needful if the governors don't. It would be best for governors to institute the right type of lockdown by county.