Coronavirus

[KarenRei]

I don't want to say much in a public forum, but it is worse on the ground than this article implies. Expect more confirmed cases soon.

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In terms of threat to the broader community, there's a lot worse places that could be infected.

In terms of a threat to the people who contract it, though, it's hard to think of a worse place for spread than a nursing home, since the mortality rate is dramatically higher among the elderly and people with preexisting conditions. It could easily kill over 1 in 5 people at that nursing home.

Getting antivirals on the market is extremely important for people like these.

 

[Singer3000]

While # of people infected in Germany not surprisingly continue to increase it may be interesting to hear that in the TV news (not private but Government funded) the news about the Corona Virus comes in the meantime on rank # 8th.

On German websites its not a headline any more too its now just one news out of many.

That will of course change if new exciting developments appear but it does show that its not the #1 news any more.

People are calming down and I hope that to continue.

That is because people are suffering from normalcy bias and their brains are not able to cope with what might lie ahead. This includes journalists.

NHS plans to deploy ‘Dad’s Army’ of retired doctors if Covid-19 spreads
“If you have a coronavirus outbreak it will be a nightmare,” one said. “How will we create the extra capacity that we will need? All hospitals are already full. It will be really, really difficult if we get loads of people with this.”

The boss of another trust said: “About 17% of people who contract the virus need some sort of medical intervention. So if this properly catches hold you have a 17% increase in the number of people coming through the NHS’s door, and then everything falls over.”
​

Conclusion: we need to stop a generalised outbreak from happening more or less at any cost. This is what was realised in China.

But this was the economic consequence of that decision:

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

It might be possible to achieve the same result in arresting an outbreak in Europe and the Americas with a more modest economic impact. But it might not. And right now the government of the world’s largest economy seems hell bent on doing everything it can to ensure its response starts with a considerable handicap.

 

[SageBrush]

Here is an interesting interview with the fellow who tracks COVid-19 across the globe by viral point mutations. He estimates ~ one point mutation a month in a 30k base pair genome

Coronavirus’s Genetics Reveal Its Global Travels

As I mentioned before, none are consequential to the disease but they are great markers to follow the paths of infection.

 

[SageBrush]

Getting antivirals on the market is extremely important for people like these.

There are exceptions to the rule, but for the most part anti-virals are either toxic, horribly expensive, or minimally effective. Tamiflu (oseltamivir) for Influenza is a good example of the latter.

The likelihood that an anti-viral will come to the world's elderly population rescue is remote.

 

[KarenRei]

NHS plans to deploy ‘Dad’s Army’ of retired doctors if Covid-19 spreads​

The US has a medical draft as well. As a general rule, countries have plans for pandemics on how to increase medical capacity.

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

View attachment 516574

That's a bit misleading. China would have been "down" for two weeks regardless due to the Lunar New Year. They just extended it to three weeks.

China is by and large "back in business" and nearly fully operational. There's strict measures, but most people seem more than happy to do them. They've basically normalized the public use of masks, widespread handwashing and frequent sterilization of commonly-touched surfaces, regular temperature measurements at workplaces, etc. This can be done in other countries as well; it doesn't require an authoritarian country.

(For the record, I take my temperature twice daily (while brushing my teeth), even though there's no evidence of person-to-person spread in Iceland, and only one confirmed, quarantined case. It takes like 5 seconds, so why not? I have no concerns over my health, but I'd hate to be responsible for someone losing their grandmother or whatnot)

 

[eevee-fan]

In terms of threat to the broader community, there's a lot worse places that could be infected.

In terms of a threat to the people who contract it, though, it's hard to think of a worse place for spread than a nursing home, since the mortality rate is dramatically higher among the elderly and people with preexisting conditions. It could easily kill over 1 in 5 people at that nursing home.

Getting antivirals on the market is extremely important for people like these.

Sadly, it might have just happened.

Health officials: Dozens at Kirkland nursing facility reporting symptoms that might suggest coronavirus

 

[KarenRei]

There are exceptions to the rule, but for the most part anti-virals are either toxic, horribly expensive, or minimally effective. Tamiflu (oseltamivir) for Influenza is a good example of the latter.

The likelihood that an anti-viral will come to the world's elderly population rescue is remote.

Remdesivir looks very promising for COVID-19. And it's not the only one going into trials.

Not only has it been in use in laboratory trials, Remdesivir has already been used in the US in a "compassionate use" exemption for a severely ill patient in Washington (he survived, although obviously that's not enough to establish a statistical basis). The drug is already in human trials in China, with results expected in April, while it'll be going into human trials in the US shortly.

Some other drugs are already on the market approved for other purposes which have shown some efficacy against COVID-19; this will make them much quicker to bring out than new drugs. An example of the latter would be chloroquine.

A vaccine is expected to be quite a ways away, but drugs to treat the disease that can dramatically improve outcomes if given early enough are expected to be on the market within a couple months.

 

[Eugene Ash]

One thing that's interesting that I saw in the news here in Iceland was about how home quarantine is done. A lot of people may be hesitant to call in a possible COVID-19 case out of fear about being stuck in their bedroom for weeks, like it's a prison sentence. But at least here in Iceland:

• You can go outside - just not near people.
• You can go for a drive - just so long as nobody shares the same car at the same time or within a given length of time of you using it
• You can go for walks - with restrictions in populated areas, but with no restrictions in the countryside. Main rule just being to avoid close proximity to others.

It's important that people know these sort of things so that they don't fear quarantine. If you feel bad, take your temperature. If it's high, call a doctor. Don't be afraid of being quarantined.

I thought all of Iceland is like you just described

 

[KarenRei]

I thought all of Iceland is like you just described

99% of it

 

[SageBrush]

The boss of another trust said: “About 17% of people who contract the virus need some sort of medical intervention. So if this properly catches hold you have a 17% increase in the number of people coming through the NHS’s door, and then everything falls over.”

A lot more than 17%, but an outbreak will not be handled that way so the thought experiment is a waste of time.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW, as an example of the difference in the state of medicine in the early 20th century vs. the present... I once gave a friend an early 20th century (1902, I think) medical encyclopedia called "Medicology" as a gift. It was an amazing insight into early 20th century medicine, and while 16 years before Spanish Flu, is still far closer in time to that than the present.

They had a discussion on viruses. Or more accurately, the controversy over whether they even exist Experiments had shown that there were some diseases which, if you ran a fluid contaminated with them through a filter fine enough to strain out bacteria, still yielded toxic results when injected into healthy individuals. But an alternative theory at the time suggested that the fluids contained a potent toxin that had been produced by bacteria that was causing the symptoms. Evidence was leaning toward the existence of some sort of incredibly small infectious agent, but it hadn't been proven.

The book had a long section on medicines. Specifically, how to make them. It even had a plant identification guide so you'd know what plants to make your tinctures from. Of inorganic medications, the most common cure-all was mercury. Which to be fair, actually *is* quite effective at treating a number of diseases; how toxic it is to patients as well however wasn't fully realized at the time.

We live in a radically different world today.

 

[SageBrush]

They had a discussion on viruses. Or more accurately, the controversy over whether they even exist Experiments had shown that there were some diseases which, if you ran a fluid contaminated with them through a filter fine enough to strain out bacteria, still yielded toxic results when injected into healthy individuals. But an alternative theory at the time suggested that the fluids contained a potent toxin that had been produced by bacteria that was causing the symptoms.

Interesting !

I'm surprised they were flummoxed since toxins do not multiply. Serial dilution experiments should have cleared up the question. By the way, so far as I know the major objection to the existence of viruses was the argument that they would be too small to be able to multiply.. We now know that the argument was correct but the conclusion was wrong: viridae co-opt the host cell machinery. There is an important lesson in that bit of history.

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting !

I'm surprised they were flummoxed since toxins do not multiply. Serial dilution experiments should have cleared up the question.

These sort of experiments eventually did, but there was a lot of confusion early on (for example, some early tests were done with trying to cultivate the infectious agent on agar or dead tissue on a petri dish, and got negative results).

Another early theory was that viruses were indeed an infectious agent, but that they were an infectious liquid.

It took a good while to understand that they're incredibly tiny obligate parasites.

 

[Singer3000]

A lot more than 17%, but an outbreak will not be handled that way so the thought experiment is a waste of time.

I agree. The experience in Asia is that you are able to prevent a public health disaster. But it comes at a cost.

 

[Singer3000]

The US has a medical draft as well. As a general rule, countries have plans for pandemics on how to increase medical capacity.



That's a bit misleading. China would have been "down" for two weeks regardless due to the Lunar New Year. They just extended it to three weeks.

China is by and large "back in business" and nearly fully operational. There's strict measures, but most people seem more than happy to do them. They've basically normalized the public use of masks, widespread handwashing and frequent sterilization of commonly-touched surfaces, regular temperature measurements at workplaces, etc. This can be done in other countries as well; it doesn't require an authoritarian country.

(For the record, I take my temperature twice daily (while brushing my teeth), even though there's no evidence of person-to-person spread in Iceland, and only one confirmed, quarantined case. It takes like 5 seconds, so why not? I have no concerns over my health, but I'd hate to be responsible for someone losing their grandmother or whatnot)

“While the Lunar New Year may have played a role in the recent dropoff, researchers believe the decrease is more than a holiday effect or weather-related variation. In a preliminary analysis, NASA researchers compared NO2 values detected by OMI in 2020 with the average amounts detected at this time of year from 2005-2019. In 2020, NO2 values in eastern and central China were significantly lower (from 10 to 30 percent lower) than what is normally observed for this time period.”

That’s probably a reasonable proxy for GDP impact. I am also far less bullish than you are that China production is back to normal. Sorry to say but that’s wishful thinking. For example to take one micro example, almost all lead and a good portion of silver in China is smelted and refined in Henan and Hunan, which border Hubei. On top of this, the sole SOE producer aside, these guys have been squeezed by cashflow problems for a year or two now. The situation is far more miserable than you claim but I don’t blame you for trying to see the optimistic side.

 

[Navin]

“While the Lunar New Year may have played a role in the recent dropoff, researchers believe the decrease is more than a holiday effect or weather-related variation. In a preliminary analysis, NASA researchers compared NO2 values detected by OMI in 2020 with the average amounts detected at this time of year from 2005-2019. In 2020, NO2 values in eastern and central China were significantly lower (from 10 to 30 percent lower) than what is normally observed for this time period.”

That’s probably a reasonable proxy for GDP impact. I am also far less bullish than you are that China production is back to normal. Sorry to say but that’s wishful thinking. For example to take one micro example, almost all lead and a good portion of silver in China is smelted and refined in Henan and Hunan, which border Hubei. On top of this, the sole SOE producer aside, these guys have been squeezed by cashflow problems for a year or two now. The situation is far more miserable than you claim but I don’t blame you for trying to see the optimistic side.

maybe -- maybe not - what makes your conjecture more valid than his.. truth is - no one really knows what's going on outside those who are inside Tesla..

 

[Singer3000]

maybe -- maybe not - what makes your conjecture more valid than his.. truth is - no one really knows what's going on outside those who are inside Tesla..

What a bizarre comment. Why would people that work in Tesla have a monopoly on information of underlying macro drivers in China? I begin to feel I am wasting my time on this site.

 

[SageBrush]

But this was the economic consequence of that decision:

Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China

Interesting photo to be sure but you should not take that number as an equivalent to drop in industrial activity. For example,
What fraction of Nox is from industrial activity as opposed to e.g cars ?Since the 10-30% drop is presumed human related but cannot all be industrial, there is an unknown correction factor here that would inflate the calculated drop in industrial activity.

An opposing effect would be less car use by people not going to work.

 

[Singer3000]

Interesting photo to be sure but you should not take that number as an equivalent to drop in industrial activity. For example,
What fraction of Nox is from industrial activity as opposed to e.g cars ?Since the 10-30% drop is presumed human related but cannot all be industrial, there is an unknown correction factor here that would inflate the calculated drop in industrial activity.

An opposing effect would be less car use by people not going to work.

To be honest it could just as easily understate the impact, because it’s not recording impact on services industries. How many reunion dinners were cancelled in Golden Week for example?

 

[SageBrush]

To be honest it could just as easily understate the impact,

That was my point -- too many confounding variables