Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

The point of the antibody test is to help uncover hidden infections... and as a secondary benefit uncover heard immunity.

The current PCR test uncovers hidden infections because it tests for the virus. Antibody tests test for antibodies which you only produce after you've been infected for some period of time (don't know how long).

 

[jhm]

Wow, Datagraver broke out New York metro. NYC has about 200 active cases per 100k, 0.2%. It looks like it has a few more weeks until it will hit a peak.

 

[Norbert]

Yes, very interesting. I'll need to study it carefully. I'm not quite clear about the distinction between infected cases and symptomatic cases. CV apparently has an untypically significant difference between the infected and the symptomatic case.

Sorry I was referring to the distinction between % of known infected cases (CFR), and % of known infected-and-symptomatic cases.

Which are the same if only symptomatic cases are tested, but different otherwise.

If only symptomatic cases are tested, the ratio of positive cases (currently 14% in US), and therefore likely also the mortality, is independent of the number of test cases.

But if there are more infected cases than symptomatic case, as is the case for COVID-19, and there is testing also of non-symptomatic cases (as when you test contact persons), then that ratio and also the mortality in that group will depend on how many non-symptomatic cases are tested, and on how random they are.

Sorry for thinking aloud, I am trying to get this straight. That's the part I am not clear about in that study.

 

[MC3OZ]

The current PCR test uncovers hidden infections because it tests for the virus. Antibody tests test for antibodies which you only produce after you've been infected for some period of time (don't know how long).

That is true there is a lag, I don't know exactly but my guess is 2-5 days...

However you can partially cover that by 2 tests days apart, regular temperature checks, and a whole lot of safety measures like masks, gloves, perspex screens, separation, hygiene standards, work practices etc.

For factory workers, my guess is many of them live around the same area and many of them socialise (or perhaps did).

So one positive has the potential to uncover a cluster... and ideally you find that cluster before any of them return to work. i.e. use the PCR test for known contacts..

The only other alternative is keep all the US factories closed 6-12 months...

Perhaps there is a trigger on say 1-5 cases which closes a factory for a week and starts the whole process over again....
I would do that for 5, not sure about 1 or 2, I would be more likely to stand down all known contacts...
The whole purpose of the safety protocols is factory workers interact with a small number of other workers and that interaction is minimised.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That is true there is a lag, I don't know exactly but my guess is 2-5 days...

However you can partially cover that by 2 tests days apart, regular temperature checks, and a whole lot of safety measures link masks, gloves, perspex screens, separation, hygiene standards, work practices etc.

For factory workers, my guess is many of them live around the same area and many of them socialise (or perhaps did).

So one positive has the potential to uncover a cluster... and ideally you find that cluster before any of them return to work. i.e. use the PCR test for known contacts..

The only other alternative is keep all the US factories closed 6-12 months...

Perhaps there is a trigger on say 1-5 cases which closes a factory for a week and starts the whole process over again....
I would do that for 5, not sure about 1 or 2, I would be more likely to stand down all known contacts...
The whole purpose of the safety protocols is factory workers interact with a small number of other workers and that interaction is minimised.

I could definitely see measures to reduce transmission at workplaces be part of the solution. Test and trace will need to be done for everyone if we ever get this under control.

 

[linux-works]

here's something I don't quite understand about the whole 'test and get back to work' concept.

say you are tested and come out ok. all that means is that, at the time(t) where you had the test, *that* is when you had that result. any time (t+delta) after that, all bets are off unless you are the boy-in-the-bubble.

and so, seems like a false sense of security to say that an employee was tested and passed, and is 'ok to go back to work'. how do I know who this or that employee, at my work, comes into contact with? I have ZERO control over their lifestyle, their safety habits, their concern or lack thereof about the whole thing.

a test result is a static snapshot in time. but life is dynamic. we can't continually test, but it would seem that any time the 'variables' change (ie, that person moves, contacts someone else, breathes near anyone, touches common things) - the test result is now 'stale' and not valid anymore.

so, tell me how 'testing' is going to keep our lives and workplaces safe? I agree we want testing; but all it takes is one person to get infected and all of us are now back to zero again, fully exposed and taking risks being there.

who is willing to take an oath that they'll only report in to work, only sit in their office or cube and maintain the test results as 'valid' by just keeping clean, so to speak. who is willing to do that? no one, really.

 

[Daniel in SD]

here's something I don't quite understand about the whole 'test and get back to work' concept.

say you are tested and come out ok. all that means is that, at the time(t) where you had the test, *that* is when you had that result. any time (t+delta) after that, all bets are off unless you are the boy-in-the-bubble.

and so, seems like a false sense of security to say that an employee was tested and passed, and is 'ok to go back to work'. how do I know who this or that employee, at my work, comes into contact with? I have ZERO control over their lifestyle, their safety habits, their concern or lack thereof about the whole thing.

a test result is a static snapshot in time. but life is dynamic. we can't continually test, but it would seem that any time the 'variables' change (ie, that person moves, contacts someone else, breathes near anyone, touches common things) - the test result is now 'stale' and not valid anymore.

so, tell me how 'testing' is going to keep our lives and workplaces safe? I agree we want testing; but all it takes is one person to get infected and all of us are now back to zero again, fully exposed and taking risks being there.

who is willing to take an oath that they'll only report in to work, only sit in their office or cube and maintain the test results as 'valid' by just keeping clean, so to speak. who is willing to do that? no one, really.

It's about reducing the risk to an acceptable level, there's no such thing as zero risk because it's likely this virus will never be eliminated (we've only done that to a few viruses).
Right now in Korea people are going about their daily lives because there is only a very small number of people in the population that are infected (despite what @TheTalkingMule believes).

 

[MC3OZ]

here's something I don't quite understand about the whole 'test and get back to work' concept.

say you are tested and come out ok. all that means is that, at the time(t) where you had the test, *that* is when you had that result. any time (t+delta) after that, all bets are off unless you are the boy-in-the-bubble.

and so, seems like a false sense of security to say that an employee was tested and passed, and is 'ok to go back to work'. how do I know who this or that employee, at my work, comes into contact with? I have ZERO control over their lifestyle, their safety habits, their concern or lack thereof about the whole thing.

a test result is a static snapshot in time. but life is dynamic. we can't continually test, but it would seem that any time the 'variables' change (ie, that person moves, contacts someone else, breathes near anyone, touches common things) - the test result is now 'stale' and not valid anymore.

so, tell me how 'testing' is going to keep our lives and workplaces safe? I agree we want testing; but all it takes is one person to get infected and all of us are now back to zero again, fully exposed and taking risks being there.

who is willing to take an oath that they'll only report in to work, only sit in their office or cube and maintain the test results as 'valid' by just keeping clean, so to speak. who is willing to do that? no one, really.

Testing is one part of a whole suite of measures...

Temp checks are important... as are masks, gloves, separation at work etc...

The other reason testing is important is uncovering hidden infections in the community which are then followed up....

The lock-down is important at this stage, testing is part of the process to gradually unwind the lock-down at the right time, China now seems to have things under control, so it can be controlled...

We have already seen a lack of testing makes the problem much bigger.. we need an element of random mass screening to catch undetected cases otherwise the virus is always 5-14 days ahead... Catch one case early it helps catch other cases early straight away you maybe save another 20 cases which now don't happen.

Medical staff may need to be tested daily, especially in higher risk jobs.

 

[linux-works]

the latency ruins the whole thing, though!

you test - you take temperature - but its latent as hell.

again, I'm not against testing. far from it! but I'm wondering how this is really going to keep us safe. we want to isolate people who are testing positive, but unless we test extremely frequently and 100% of the people you are in contact with, this is a scalability problem.

and as we've seen in this thread, the 'money is the only thing that matters' folks will swoop in when they can and demand that testing frequency be reduced, percentage be reduced, etc. they are raring to go - and they could not care less about safety or health. they simply want their cash flow returning at any expense.

so, we can keep those vultures off our back for a while, but its like the anti-encryption idiots in all areas of the government; they want to break our privacy and they keep picking at it at every chance, trying to knock it down. we have to win 100% and they only have to win once. I don't like those odds.

 

[Daniel in SD]

the latency ruins the whole thing, though!

you test - you take temperature - but its latent as hell.

again, I'm not against testing. far from it! but I'm wondering how this is really going to keep us safe. we want to isolate people who are testing positive, but unless we test extremely frequently and 100% of the people you are in contact with, this is a scalability problem.

and as we've seen in this thread, the 'money is the only thing that matters' folks will swoop in when they can and demand that testing frequency be reduced, percentage be reduced, etc. they are raring to go - and they could not care less about safety or health. they simply want their cash flow returning at any expense.

so, we can keep those vultures off our back for a while, but its like the anti-encryption idiots in all areas of the government; they want to break our privacy and they keep picking at it at every chance, trying to knock it down. we have to win 100% and they only have to win once. I don't like those odds.

You solve the latency problem through contact tracing. You test everyone that person has been in contact with. You don't have to be 100% successful, you only have to make sure that each case results in less than one new case and the virus will die out. Is it possible? It seems to be working in Korea. Combine it with social distancing and other measures and maybe it will work here.
The first phase of a vaccine trial has started so there is hope.

 

[linux-works]

the tree keeps going. and all the nodes/leaves keep 'changing'. as you travel down one branch, others just changed in major ways. its a 'moving maze'.

its like a database problem. by the time you've walked a table, the top of that table has data that just changed. you can never keep in sync.

this is exponential. I don't see how we can have any quality in mass test results. we're too dynamic of a society and we don't exhibit good safe behavior, as a rule.

 

[MC3OZ]

the latency ruins the whole thing, though!

you test - you take temperature - but its latent as hell.

again, I'm not against testing. far from it! but I'm wondering how this is really going to keep us safe. we want to isolate people who are testing positive, but unless we test extremely frequently and 100% of the people you are in contact with, this is a scalability problem.

and as we've seen in this thread, the 'money is the only thing that matters' folks will swoop in when they can and demand that testing frequency be reduced, percentage be reduced, etc. they are raring to go - and they could not care less about safety or health. they simply want their cash flow returning at any expense.

so, we can keep those vultures off our back for a while, but its like the anti-encryption idiots in all areas of the government; they want to break our privacy and they keep picking at it at every chance, trying to knock it down. we have to win 100% and they only have to win once. I don't like those odds.

I guess it is risk minimisation as far as possible, dig deeper a lot of life is like that.. like FSD it is a march of 9s... and there is always a judgement on how safe is safe enough..

The other argument for the antibody test as a wide screen test is there is a outside chance it will show a much higher infection rate, hence higher herd immunity and lower mortality, I would not hang our hat on that, the probability is probably less than 30%, but anything that improves our data-set also helps.

I agree health is more important than money, but I just can't see how factories closed 6-12 months is going to work. If people are return to work we want best practice and risk minimisation.

To be clear I think Trump's timetable of by Easter is way too soon and not thought out... for starters they need to define good protocols and targets ... i.e we want that march of 9s in the right ballpark.. it is a long way away at present.

 

[MC3OZ]

the tree keeps going. and all the nodes/leaves keep 'changing'. as you travel down one branch, others just changed in major ways. its a 'moving maze'.

its like a database problem. by the time you've walked a table, the top of that table has data that just changed. you can never keep in sync.

this is exponential. I don't see how we can have any quality in mass test results. we're too dynamic of a society and we don't exhibit good safe behavior, as a rule.

I think Asian societies and Germany are possibly getting better results because they have more community spirit, less division and more discipline.

America needs to have place community and following the rules above individual freedom here, it is a challenge.

 

[linux-works]

I'm still thinking about what daily life is going to be like. hopefully, I can have some space around my desk, people will respect the 'space distance' stuff and if I have to go from any distance (hallways) to another, its 'mask on' time. that re-usable 3d printed mask will last for a while and maybe it won't be the worst thing in the world to use, when 'walking' in the office.

how good are the hvac systems? some employers are good about that, but most really don't take it seriously enough. and cultural things in companies - are companies willing to adapt make the appropriate changes?

buffet self-serve is probably gone for a long long time, at this point. sitting next to each other at the lunchroom, when we are 6' apart, how can we even hear each other? (as an older guy, my hearing dynamic range is getting limited and if we're too far apart, its going to make it even harder to keep a conversation going).

are we willing to make lots of changes? or is it 'ok, all over, now back to work' and that's that? that's what I'm worried about the most. going fully back to the old ways before its time.

 

[linux-works]

I think Asian societies and Germany are possibly getting better results because they have more community spirit, less division and more discipline.

America needs to have place community and following the rules above individual freedom here, it is a challenge.

agreed! we can either REGROW our sense of shared community or suffer due to lack of it.

a famous man once said, 'brothers, we either hang together or we hang separately'.

wonder if we can, as a people. look how divided we are now! never been more polarized in the history of this nation (at least living memory). fearless leader loves to fan the flames; he's more of a divider than a uniter. we're not going to get a unified 'we are all one' feeling from that assclown.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm still thinking about what daily life is going to be like. hopefully, I can have some space around my desk, people will respect the 'space distance' stuff and if I have to go from any distance (hallways) to another, its 'mask on' time. that re-usable 3d printed mask will last for a while and maybe it won't be the worst thing in the world to use, when 'walking' in the office.

how good are the hvac systems? some employers are good about that, but most really don't take it seriously enough. and cultural things in companies - are companies willing to adapt make the appropriate changes?

buffet self-serve is probably gone for a long long time, at this point. sitting next to each other at the lunchroom, when we are 6' apart, how can we even hear each other? (as an older guy, my hearing dynamic range is getting limited and if we're too far apart, its going to make it even harder to keep a conversation going).

are we willing to make lots of changes? or is it 'ok, all over, now back to work' and that's that? that's what I'm worried about the most. going fully back to the old ways before its time.

I don't think we are going back to the good old ways anytime soon.

IMO this current era was always going to be an era of rapid change, the virus has kick-started that.. but i bet a lot of what happens over the next decade was going to happen anyway

Companies will not want to expose themselves to lawsuits by exposing employees to unnecessary risk...

Outside of work, socialising is at your own risk.... that is an individual decision...

In 12-18 months we probably have a vaccine and things start returning to normal, but my bet is the following changes linger on in a permanent fashion:-

• temp checks at all borders and possibly at airlines before boarding flights.
• fewer meetings more video conferencing
• more working from home..
• more emphasis on hygiene and distancing at work..
• many fewer cruise trips..
• fewer work lunches, balls, parties.

In simple terms companies may consider socialising is a risky activity which is best done when they are not legally responsible.

 

[renim]

Aussie first 1000 cases report

As at 21 March there are 19 countries that have reported more than 1000 confirmed cases. The graph below compares 6 countries on the day they reported more than 1000 confirmed cases.

...

Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) coronavirus (COVID-19) statement on 22 March 2020

green is days between 100 cases to 1000 cases, this seems to be inversely related to housing density, and population (obvious exception China)

blue is days from case 1 to 1000 cases, similar to green, this seems to be inversely related to housing density and population (obvious exception China)

orange is deaths, first thousand cases, USA is reaching for the sky, presumably due to NYC? Australia seems to be trending a little better than South Korea, presumably due to healthier lungs and forewarning/preparedness.

about the only real takeaway, is that China is really dodgy with their reporting, total disconnect between deaths and case count durations

 

[Daniel in SD]

about the only real takeaway, is that China is really dodgy with their reporting, total disconnect between deaths and case count durations

it's a novel virus, people had to start dying before they noticed anything was wrong.

 

[Daniel in SD]

• temp checks at all borders and possibly at airlines before boarding flights.

Temp checks don't work for COVID-19 because there are so many asymptomatic carriers. That's the reason SARS was so much easier to stop, people got a fever before they were contagious.

 

[MC3OZ]

Temp checks don't work for COVID-19 because there are so many asymptomatic carriers. That's the reason SARS was so much easier to stop, people got a fever before they were contagious.

They will do something, whenever there is a serious disease outbreak in a particular country, relevant health checks and or quarantine will be enforced.. And it isn't enough to just quarantine visitors from that country..

Just today Australia announced mandatory supervised quarantine of all new arrivals in hotels for 2 weeks. Where we are currently at this is a great policy, best work by our politicians to date.

When the whole world is relatively disease free people might be more relaxed, but COVID-19 will be written up in history books..