Coronavirus

[linux-works]

Great to see other folks getting into the 3D printing stuff too. We’ve been printing the same 3 piece mask for a bit, now just waiting on a MERV-16 air conditioning filter to hack up for the “N95-esque” filtering part. My wife already has the elastic band ready to go too.

I'm wondering if an inner disposable layer can be made. maybe tpu or some kind of insert. that would be the thing you throw away. I don't think PLA (what most people have) can deal with alcohol well. and these things take WAY too long to print to be one-time use only.

I am hoping UV sterilization can be employed, but it still feels like an inner part is still needed.

and, where it fits the face, its going to leave some nasty 'divets', so to speak. I'd decouple things a bit by having a wider brim, so that it distributes the load better. I don't want a sharp line around my face when I take this thing off (I've seen what the soft masks do to faces after 8 hours; imagine this rigid design and what IT would do. yikes.)

this is a good first start, but clearly not the end design, yet (imho).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In the places where it has been stamped down like China and South Korea there is almost certainly a low level of asymptomatic cases going around now.

Doesn't make any sense.

If we had militarized the medical supply system as the law Trump signed over a week ago allows for, the entire economic resources of the country could be focused on testing for active cases, making equipment necessary, and ramp up testing for the antibody.

Not soon enough. Needed to be in January, just as everyone recommended...

How many of those infected were asymptomatic and passed it to others who were then asymptomatic? Another huge chunk only have very mild symptoms that are barely noticeable. These groups likely pass it around to each other like crazy since they don't have any reason for concern.

Doesn't make any sense.

Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has issued an updated IFR estimate of 0.05%-0.14%, based on the testing data from Iceland. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

Seems a bit preliminary. But anyway, as others have mentioned, these IFR numbers in reality don't matter at all, because we know that if we don't do anything, at least 4% of the people seeking medical attention at the hospital will die. Note that according to your reference, in the early stages of China's crisis, 17% (!!!) of the patients died! "In China, CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17% for cases from 1 to 10 January)"

Doing nothing is obviously catastrophic. So if we're debating IFR because we're trying to use a low value to rationalize doing nothing, or doing a "phased" infection ramp, then we can stop that debate right now. If we're debating it for academic purposes, carry on.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That was one example. You go to the pool on a cruise, crowded. You go eat, crowded. People are always within that 6ft radius. It's a super spreader's paradise.

Which is why it went from 1 person to 696 in as little as two weeks (could be longer because we don't know how much it spread after the quarantine). If it was spreading that fast in the US it would have infected 163,322,567,294,976 people by now!

696^(10 weeks/2 weeks)

 

[Dr. J]

In looking for the report link I came across news that the original author was in front of Parliament yesterday revising his 500k death prediction for the UK down to "20k or perhaps much lower". I don't know what New Scientist is, but here's the link to the coverage.

Of course they're now characterizing his original thesis as a "worst case scenario" if the UK and US did absolutely nothing.

Again, this is the kind of thing global institutional investors are latching onto as rationale to jump back into the markets. Even though we're about to go through hell in the US.

That's very helpful, thanks. Highlights:

...expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

I'm pretty sure the original death toll estimates were based on letting the virus run wild, and this latest estimate is based (among possibly other things) on the measures they have put in place since changing their strategy.

The UK government is aiming to relax restrictions on people’s movements only when the country has the ability to test more people for the virus...

This sounds like the hopeful strategy just announced by the Trump administration, which appears to be heavily influenced by the Brits.

New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

A higher R0 will make it that much more difficult to loosen restrictions and keep a lid on the epidemic.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Doing nothing is obviously catastrophic. So if we're debating IFR because we're trying to use a low value to rationalize doing nothing, then we can stop that debate right now. If we're debating it for academic purposes, carry on.

I was going to make the same argument. There is really no alternative to what we're doing right now until we can build more hospital capacity.

 

[deonb]

If course Korea missed 86% of their cases, likely far far more. How many of those infected were asymptomatic and passed it to others who were then asymptomatic? Another huge chunk only have very mild symptoms that are barely noticeable. These groups likely pass it around to each other like crazy since they don't have any reason for concern. The older folks then get it from them, start coughing, are tested and isolated.

Koreans are very good about cooperating with an emergency plan like this, but certainly there are an additional 100k infected, asymptomatic, and "recovered" citizens not included in their denominator. They didn't have a nationwide outbreak of a brand new highly contagious virus and only end up with 9,000 infections.

So you say that older folks start coughing, are tested, and isolated and those are the only tested one. Got it.

But you also say that there are an additional 70000 people out (86%) that are wondering around that are infected but are asymptomatic.

So what happened 2 weeks ago that made it peak out? The virus got bored of infecting old people?

 

[EinSV]

. But anyway, as others have mentioned, these IFR numbers in reality don't matter at all, because we know that if we don't do anything, at least 4% of the people seeking medical attention at the hospital will die.

Yes and no.

I agree that in the early stages there is no meaningful difference because what matters is the absolute number of people who are hospitalized and die. If the IFR is on the lower end as CEBM suggests due to a large number of undiagnosed asymptomatic or mild cases then that must mean the virus is more infectious than many estimates, with the same net number of people ending up in the hospital in the short run. We would still want to have the same sorts of social distancing policies either way to avoid hospitals getting overrun and give the medical system time to develop and test treatments or possibly a vaccine, obtain equipment, gear, etc..

BUT, in the long run if the IFR is in the range CEBM estimates the virus will be much less deadly and will run its course much faster. This is extremely important for public health and for the prospects for getting the economy back on track.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think it's #1. I started coming down with it mid-February. I had a mild case with no complications, but there were only a few cases in Oregon (south of us) and the Puget Sound cases (north of us) were a much smaller outbreak than now.

I know two people in the Portland area that had the symptoms, and were able to get tested. They both tested negative for the flu and COVID-19. So either the specimen taking/handling was crap, the tests are crap, or there is something else going around with exactly the same symptoms. (I think one of them is on week ~4 and is pretty much back to normal. The other is on week ~2 and is recovering.)

My gut feeling is that they both have/had COVID-19 and that something went wrong with the testing. Which puts them back in the pool to have infected more people. (The first thing one of them did when they got the negative result was to head out to the grocery store and a restaurant.)

So yeah, I think we have no idea how many people have actually been infected.

 

[linux-works]

So what happened 2 weeks ago that made it peak out? The virus got bored of infecting old people?

come on, you know how old people are. they start a story, it goes to an arc, then tangents off somewhere else - eventually - they finish, but it may take a while.

even a virus can't deal with that for very long.

"by the way, did I ever tell you how I got these scars?"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

They both tested negative for the flu and COVID-19.

Illnesses of unknown cause are quite common. Actual doctors here could comment on whether that is a correct assertion.

---------
Back on the other topic:

Regarding the Dr. Birx comments today, here's an unrolled Twitter thread explaining the background on what she was talking about, from one of the owners of the models under discussion. It's worth a read, as it discusses some of the most prominent topics being debated here:

Thread by @mlipsitch: Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (…

 

[dhanson865]

Many companies don't allow banking comp time or vacation time anymore (they might actually have to let the employees take it). Comp time has to be taken the same week, and vacation time the year it was earned, or it's lost.

you seem to be using the phrase comp time differently than I would.

we have no vacation time, we have no sick time, we have only comp time. I'm not even sure what you are comping for if it's "same week": same week as what? Every week is a week.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please find that because everything I see says there's a 10% fatality rate for SARS.
How could testing possibly work if you only catch 16% of cases? There's a reason this virus is so hard to stop, because there are asymptomatic cases! You have to catch them or they'll keep spreading it and create more ASYMPTOMATIC CASES. Your theory that you can stop it by only quarantining symptomatic cases makes no sense.
Also we know from the cruise ship data THAT ONLY ABOUT 60% OF CASES ARE ASYMPTOMATIC. You think that people in Korea, knowing that there's a deadly viral outbreak going on in their community, wouldn't get themselves tested? They've tested 340k people!

They've tested 395k people, in a country of 51M+. Yes, I believe there are plenty of untested asymptomatic cases both recovered and active in Korea.

 

[linux-works]

after 9 hours of printing - still at 67% done, but you can see it taking shape.

(white specs are likely dust on my digicam sensor, lol)

 

[eevee-fan]

after 9 hours of printing - still at 67% done, but you can see it taking shape.

View attachment 526308

(white specs are likely dust on my digicam sensor, lol)

Make a Vader helmet with slot for a N95 filter!

 

[linux-works]

you seem to be using the phrase comp time differently than I would.

we have no vacation time, we have no sick time, we have only comp time. I'm not even sure what you are comping for if it's "same week": same week as what?

same here. they took away our 2 paid weeks of vacation (that you can take with you if you leave the company). now they give us 'unlimited' sick and holiday, but that's never really the case, lol. and if you don't take any time off at all, you still get no extra comp when you leave the company. its truly a win for the company much more than the individual, which is WHY THEY DO IT (duh).

Every week is a week.

well, for small values of week, sure...

 

[linux-works]

Make a Vader helmet with slot for a N95 filter!

while WFH, our group is having daily 'stand-ups' (ugh, hate that term) and I'm thinking of wearing that on one of the on-camera days. "Luke, I am your father" will be a part of it, I'm pretty sure. don't want to disappoint.

 

[Sanny]

Your customers will be seeing the money, so when we get out of this they can purchase your products again rather than sitting on a street corner. That's the theory anyway. This will only be practice if everything is meticulously well executed... which... it's not.

That's a long way to say "I don't care"

 

[Daniel in SD]

They've tested 395k people, in a country of 51M+. Yes, I believe there are plenty of untested asymptomatic cases both recovered and active in Korea.

Still waiting for that SARS number! Surely you must have had time to google it by now. You don't want to be spreading false information that you misremembered do you?
So at this point in time how many asymptomatic COVID-19 positive people are in South Korea?

 

[Dr. J]

Dr. Birx comment from the Hill article:

Birx, an HIV/AIDS expert from the State Department who was brought on to coordinate the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, noted that 19 of the 50 U.S. states are showing a persistently low level of coronavirus cases despite reporting early infections. These 19 states each have fewer than 200 cases, Birx said, and are still working to actively contain the virus rather than mitigate its spread.

“That’s almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing,” Birx said.

Does she really think that 19 of the 50 U.S. states represents nearly 40 of the country? I'm guessing those states in question are the mountain and midwestern states with relatively low populations. She believes this?

 

[bkp_duke]

after 9 hours of printing - still at 67% done, but you can see it taking shape.

View attachment 526308

(white specs are likely dust on my digicam sensor, lol)

My first print is at 77%, but I don't think it will be useful for anyone but our kids. My printer is on the smaller side and the only way I could get the mask to fit into the printable space was to shrink it to 80% of normal. I guess I could try a vertical print, but that seems unstable and prone to failure.