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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
MXLRplus
Active Member
We thought polio was gone too.
from April 2nd: "South Korea allowed just under 10,000 schools to act as daycare centers to watch children." That would be 64,000 schools in the US left open or nearly 1/2 the US schools. We didn't do that. SK never shut down to US levels.
Something else is in play in SK that is not present in the US. Perhaps they didn't abandon their nursing homes? Or have fewer of them?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
As far as I can tell, no country with community spread has been able to keep the virus out of nursing homes.
Coronavirus: nursing home clusters emerge in South Korea
Norbert
TSLA will win
Below is the CBS This Morning News (Gayle King) interview with Dr. Richard Levitan who discusses the silent hypoxia symptom (very low ogygen) in some Covid 19 patients before they realize they have a breathing (lung) issue. The transcript of the video is the CBS Morning News article below. (Dr. Levitan's opinion piece in the NYTimes was previously linked to here on this TMC thread. He has been teaching intubation techniques for years and you can find youtube videos of some of his talks online.)
Device that checks oxygen levels could be early warning system for coronavirus, doctor says
In the above video/news segment article Dr. Levitan discusses what they were observing in patients in the hospital, shows Gayle how simple the device is to use (like a thermometer almost) and discussed how in Germany doctors go to each patient's house each day and take an oxygen reading as well as other vital signs so they can catch the need for oxygen sooner.
Not sure if anyone posted the video of the interview yet and don't have the time to check back through the dozen or so pages since Dr. Levitan's NYTimes article came out to look for it right now. Sorry if this is already been posted.
Device that checks oxygen levels could be early warning system for coronavirus, doctor says
In the above video/news segment article Dr. Levitan discusses what they were observing in patients in the hospital, shows Gayle how simple the device is to use (like a thermometer almost) and discussed how in Germany doctors go to each patient's house each day and take an oxygen reading as well as other vital signs so they can catch the need for oxygen sooner.
Not sure if anyone posted the video of the interview yet and don't have the time to check back through the dozen or so pages since Dr. Levitan's NYTimes article came out to look for it right now. Sorry if this is already been posted.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Covid related hospital admissions occur in ~ the same time frame as seroconversion
About 1/5 admission are fatal.
I think this is about the best armchair epidemioloticians can due in estimating IFR for each locale
About 1/5 admission are fatal.
I think this is about the best armchair epidemioloticians can due in estimating IFR for each locale
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ZachF
Active Member
This has turned into the hypochondriac thread...
Almost all of the antibody tests now seem to suggest a much lower IFR than previously thought, but you seem to ignore them all... It almost seems like you want the disease to be more deadly than it is.
Almost all of the antibody tests now seem to suggest a much lower IFR than previously thought, but you seem to ignore them all... It almost seems like you want the disease to be more deadly than it is.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance
Read the things that Taiwan and South Korea did. It takes dedication, hard work and excellent governance. None of which he US governments (federal and state) can be accused of.
If your test turns positive, you are sent into isolation in a government shelter where you get basic medical support and observation or a hospital, or at home, depending on symptoms.
If you are negative, if you recover, or if you are just potentially exposed, you are quarantined at home. You must download another app that tells the police if you go outside. This service is assisted by a local monitoring team that calls twice daily to make sure you stay put and to ask about your symptoms. The fine for leaving is $8,000 and as much as a year in jail.
If you are negative, if you recover, or if you are just potentially exposed, you are quarantined at home. You must download another app that tells the police if you go outside. This service is assisted by a local monitoring team that calls twice daily to make sure you stay put and to ask about your symptoms. The fine for leaving is $8,000 and as much as a year in jail.
MXLRplus
Active Member
We live in a country where you can steal up to $950(?) and it's not really considered a crime. Certain foreign nationals are exempt from arrest for non-violent crimes. We emptied most schools and many prisons at the same time. I doubt a year in jail for leaving your house fits into our current culture.
So the SK plan is a non-starter it appears. Our political system isn't set up for that. Nor has it been since WWII.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Huh? It seems like they are saying IFR is 0.5% to 1.5%, which is exactly in the range of what has ALWAYS been thought, by pretty much everyone.
Who on earth thought it was higher? The WHO reported a CFR of 3.4% officially after the China outbreak, but obviously they didn't think that was the IFR!!!
1% is really, really bad. (And by the way, I think 1.5% is potentially still in play, unfortunately - it is just really hard to say with the prolonged deaths.)
With an attack rate of about 80% vs. 10% for the flu (partially due to vaccinations, partly for other susceptibility/R0 differences), an unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic will be 80x worse than a typical flu season with a 0.1% IFR!
That's really bad. I definitely don't want it to be worse.
"It's just 80x the flu, bro"
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/23/factory-masks-coronavirus-ppe/
Great story about workers living in a factory for an entire month to produce 40 million pounds of polypropylene (used in masks and other PPE).
Great story about workers living in a factory for an entire month to produce 40 million pounds of polypropylene (used in masks and other PPE).
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, seems like the only way to do it. If Teslas were equally as important as PPE, I would say Fremont should do the same. Maybe they can make PPE and testing equipment and supplies on the side? Probably no need to do ventilators.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Specificity of 93% to 100%.
I reserve my judgement, until we can see the actual study.
http://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/all/DOH_COVID19_AntibodyTestingFactSheet_041420.pdf
This Professor at the Department of Microbiology Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai is not convinced.
Florian Krammer on Twitter
Sorry, Governor, but that is BS. Which test is this based on?
I think this is too high. It is possible. But a 20% plus infection rate seems too high for NYC due to a number of reasons. I would think 6-8%, maybe 10% are closer to the truth. It would be nice to know more about the test, its sensitivity and specificity and the test population.
I think this is too high. It is possible. But a 20% plus infection rate seems too high for NYC due to a number of reasons. I would think 6-8%, maybe 10% are closer to the truth. It would be nice to know more about the test, its sensitivity and specificity and the test population.
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in. We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties. Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.
That is for the entire world though, right?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
If I understand correctly, all of this can be done in the US currently, without any federal law changes. Government quarantine authority is very broad, based on Supreme Court precedent. IANAL.
Yes, very wide confidence interval still. They'll keep gathering data and hopefully be transparent about making it available to the public for analysis. They really need to do more calibrating of their antibody test!
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Point is, perth like adelaide etc has a natural advantage.
Its comparatively an elongated city straddling the coast with a good sea breeze, (Fremantle doctor).
Being outside in a sea breeze fresh from ocean is a difficult way for covid19 to transmit. You can the wind ruffling the guy's clothes.
It not immunity, but outside culture sure helps.
Its comparatively an elongated city straddling the coast with a good sea breeze, (Fremantle doctor).
Being outside in a sea breeze fresh from ocean is a difficult way for covid19 to transmit. You can the wind ruffling the guy's clothes.
It not immunity, but outside culture sure helps.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Speaking of ventilators: Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes ...jamanetwork.com › journals › jama › fullarticle
A new clinical study from NYC of 5700 patients.
Headline on this one is that 88% of people put on a ventilator die. Half of patients were still on ventilators at the end of the study. It's unclear if they would have a higher or a lower survival rate.
Apparently there's something called the Charlson Comorbidity index. It takes into account age, which by itself is a comorbidity (Just being 60-69 gets you a 2 on the index), and other conditions. Patients admitted to the hospital had a median of 4 on the index which corresponds to a 53% estimated 10 year survival. Median age of those admitted to the hospital was 63, what is the normal 10 year survival for that age? They don't give the index for those who survived versus those who died.
I wonder if the survival rate on ventilators has gone down? It sounds like doctors have figured out some things that keep patients off of ventilators (prone position?) so maybe even more severe cases are ending up on ventilators.
Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) - MDCalc
My annoyance with the way comorbidities are analyzed with respect to COVID-19 continues. For example 40% of hospitalizations in this study are obese but 40% of the US population is also obese! Obesity rates in NYC are much lower than 40% but what are they in the infected population?
Another note: 84.4% were never smokers. This is probably very upsetting to the anti-smoking zealots.
The French are experimenting with nicotine patches (French researchers plan to give nicotine patches to coronavirus patients and frontline workers | Daily Mail Online)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why do you keep bringing politics into this ?
May I also note we kill kids who are playing with plastic guns ? Police can do no wrong. We can go to another country and kill a million people with impunity ? A homeless mother gets a jail term of 6 years for lying about the address and a rapist gets probation ?
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