Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

600k sounds way too high. Even 300k sounds a little high

This is based on his 10x-20x multiplier (multiply daily cases in the US of ~30k by 10 or 20) that he has always stuck to (I think it's based on his modeling of the doubling time of the outbreak, when it started, etc.). Those numbers put the current outbreak size in the US at about 10 million to 20 million cases, from what I understand. (Would work out to be about a 0.5 to 1% IFR, when deaths are complete.)

I think 20x is on the high side, basically for the same reasons as you - I can't really conceive that we would miss quite that many cases.

But I think we'll likely be closer to 10x than 5x, when you average over the entire country. This average is dominated by large outbreak areas, and in those areas, we've missed a lot of cases.

Anyway, would be good to have a couple million tests per day. That's hopefully less than a factor of 5 increase from where we are at now, and would hopefully lead to positivity rates of about 5% (catching 2/3 of the cases worst case, initially, perhaps).

 

[SageBrush]

There were, however, “no clots”

Indeed.
All the clots were in the filter.

 

[dfwatt]

Thanks Doug. My local Walgreens is out of Clorox Chewables. In the interim where can I get moron spray?

Thanks for reaching out Carter. Always happy to help out a classmate!!

Yes, Moron Spray, the Yahoo Bunghole Steam Gun, and JHM's revolutionary Solabag (solar powered emema) are all on sale his week, to assist our CDC in the treament of the massive idiocy outbreak. Strangely, these outbreaks seem to occur ~ 10 minutes after the WH "press briefings?" Probably just a coincidence . . . .

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's hard to see trends in Sweden because their daily numbers bounce around so much, especially on weekends. But trailing 7 day numbers are encouraging, especially deaths which are 590 the past 7 days vs. 732 the 7 days before that.

The conspiracy theorist in me says that they are undercounting deaths. They're very clearly rationing care (not necessarily a bad thing, I'm pro death panel). This seems to explain why they're having no trouble with ICU capacity.
Here is the deaths by age (left) and ICU admissions by age (right). The Swedes do seem to be impressively resistant to the virus.

Experience
COVID-19 in Swedish intensive care
I would question their rationing of ICU beds between men and women, it doesn't really seem fair.

That said, I don't believe they are anywhere near herd immunity, even in Stockholm.

Yeah, I'm dying to know. I wonder if they actually botched the last survey by using convalescent plasma donations from people who had recovered from COVID-19.

People act as if Sweden did zero mitigation. But they implemented work from home, outlawed gatherings of 50+, closed bars and high school and college campuses. Their numbers are worse than Norway and Finland, but still manageable. When all is said and done their approach may prove to be superior.

Yeah, the differences are being a bit overblown.

 

[dfwatt]

This is based on his 10x-20x multiplier (multiply daily cases in the US of ~30k by 10 or 20) that he has always stuck to (I think it's based on his modeling of the doubling time of the outbreak, when it started, etc.). Those numbers put the current outbreak size in the US at about 10 million to 20 million cases, from what I understand. (Would work out to be about a 0.5 to 1% IFR, when deaths are complete.)

I think 20x is on the high side, basically for the same reasons as you - I can't really conceive that we would miss quite that many cases.

But I think we'll likely be closer to 10x than 5x, when you average over the entire country. This average is dominated by large outbreak areas, and in those areas, we've missed a lot of cases.

Anyway, would be good to have a couple million tests per day. That's hopefully less than a factor of 5 increase from where we are at now, and would hopefully lead to positivity rates of about 5% (catching 2/3 of the cases worst case, initially, perhaps).

Yes I think it's somewhere between 7 and 12 x but it may be higher in some areas lower in others. Don't ask me to defend that mathematically - that's definitely just throwing a dart at the wall so to speak

 

[SageBrush]

People act as if Sweden did zero mitigation. But they implemented work from home, outlawed gatherings of 50+, closed bars and high school and college campuses.

The more important question is this:

How does a Swede with a fever and a sore throat behave ?
Calls in sick and stays at home ?
Continues to go out, but with a mask ?
Or finds every bar in town to infect ?

I know how Merkins behave, but I would not presume that Swedes act the same.

 

[dfwatt]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that they are undercounting deaths. They're very clearly rationing care (not necessarily a bad thing, I'm pro death panel). This seems to explain why they're having no trouble with ICU capacity.
Here is the deaths by age (left) and ICU admissions by age (right). The Swedes do seem to be impressively resistant to the virus.
View attachment 536845View attachment 536846
Experience
COVID-19 in Swedish intensive care

Yeah, I'm dying to know. I wonder if they actually botched the last survey by using convalescent plasma donations from people who had recovered from COVID-19.

Yeah, the differences are being a bit overblown.

You don't have to be any version of a conspiracy theorist about the death count because everybody's admitting that they are undercounting. People found dead in their homes, significant escalation of deaths initially attributed to non covid-19 causes, Etc. I think it'll take us a while to see what the true death toll is. I'd like to believe that Swedish government has more Integrity than some other places but even the best CDCs are struggling to create an accurate record.

 

[dfwatt]

The more important question is this:

How does a Swede with a fever and a sore throat behave ?
Calls in sick and stays at home ?
Continues to go out, but with a mask ?
Or finds every bar in town to infect ?

I know how Merkins behave, but I would not presume that Swedes act the same.

It's spelled 'Muricans.

 

[SageBrush]

They're very clearly rationing care (not necessarily a bad thing, I'm pro death panel). This seems to explain why they're having no trouble with ICU capacity.

What fraction of hospitalizations include ICE level care ? I cannot tell from your graph and I'm too lazy to count.

Through 4/27 there are 2274 deaths. I'll make an educated guess that about 80% of US deaths in acute care hospitals get ICU level care sometime during their hospital stay unless rationing is in play.

I would however warn you against including advance directives of DNR/DNI leading to death outside the ICU as equivalent to ICU rationing. The former is a personal choice and the latter is not.

 

[linux-works]

I know how Merkins behave, but I would not presume that Swedes act the same.

I'll just leave that there:

Merkin - Wikipedia

(oops. phrasing, how does it work?)

 

[Daniel in SD]

What fraction of hospitalizations include ICE level care ? I cannot tell from your graph and I'm too lazy to count.

Through 4/27 there are 2274 deaths. I'll make an educated guess that about 80% of US deaths in acute care hospitals get ICU level care sometime during their hospital stay unless rationing is in play.

They've had 1324 patients receive ICU care (and I assume this includes the ~500 currently in ICUs).
If you're over 70 it looks like you probably won't get admitted to an ICU. Obviously I can't say whether this is patient choice or rationing.

 

[MABMAB]

I like what this guy says, seems to know science

his wiki

John Ioannidis - Wikipedia

 

[Daniel in SD]

I like what this guy says,

This is always the best way to evaluate science.

 

[dfwatt]

I'll just leave that there:

Merkin - Wikipedia

(oops. phrasing, how does it work?)

You'll have to ask sagebrush if that's what he really meant!

 

[Norbert]

I think the main problem with this calc is that it does not correct for the fraction of people infected during the period under study who have not yet, but will die from their Covid infection.

I do the following:
1. Take the cum deaths as of 8 - 10 days after the serology study
2. Add 20% of current hospitalizations

(1)+(2) divided into the seropositive population. This works out to ~ 1.1% IFR for NYC

His calc is a lower bound, as if the entire pop was already infected. The serology study is used to normalize the deaths to the entire population.

That's not a problem with the calculation, that's a problem with you not knowing the difference between mortality and IFR.

The mortality as calculated is a hard fact (for NYC). So far, adjusted IFR calculations including yours, and IFR calculations like those which talked about 0.2% or less, are estimates.

Hard facts are a much stronger refutation (counter-proof) than another estimate, even if it is a better estimate.

And as you should be aware, I made IFR estimates as well, of about 1.29% even without considering above-average deaths. The undercounting of deaths as indicated by above-average calculations would easily cover the distance between 1.1% and 1.29%. I also expect a long tail of deaths for the US as well as NYC, even if not as large as that of South Korea, so I stand by my estimate. I say that just in case your intention was to re-open that discussion.

 

[ZeApelido]

You don't have to be any version of a conspiracy theorist about the death count because everybody's admitting that they are undercounting. People found dead in their homes, significant escalation of deaths initially attributed to non covid-19 causes, Etc. I think it'll take us a while to see what the true death toll is. I'd like to believe that Swedish government has more Integrity than some other places but even the best CDCs are struggling to create an accurate record.

Elon and John McAfee think we're overcounting

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I like what this guy says, seems to know science

his wiki

John Ioannidis - Wikipedia

Living up to your avatar.

 

[dfwatt]

Elon and John McAfee think we're overcounting

That's because they're sharing the same bong in violation of social distancing . .

 

[MABMAB]

From mid March

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From mid March

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

Is today Groundhog Day?