And this woman has not traveled to Italy or other known endemic countries which probably means she acquired it in the Netherlands.So there must be more. The good news is that they are not dying by numbers (yet).
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Almost 70 of the 74 cases in Nordrhine Wesfalia could be tracked back to one person who was infected with the virus and bought it in.
If you take that into consideration and that all people along the chain of infections are isolated and need to stay at home including schools where one of those was been are closed, you probably understand why I am saying if you dive deeper in the numbers and cases the situation looks not as grim as many try to paint it.
An example, people panic now that the infections in Germany have been grown 100% over the weekend and spreading all of Germany. Truth is we have single cases in many countries but the bulk is in in Nordrhine Westfalia as explained above and Bavaria where the vast amount comes from one person in one company who infected +20.
So, will we see more infections? Absolutely
Is that out of control? Absolutely not!
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The important missing detail is whether other people in the chain of contacts were infectious prior to isolation. I remain of the opinion that contacts without symptoms are non-infectious.
As an aside, how is Germany handling household members of an isolated contact ?
Like every flue. Stay at home treat yourself if even required with the normal measure like every year. If it get bad call the doc. make sure you have a room of your own and exchange the air often... its a longer list but nothing unexpected
Don't go out and separate from the rest of the family, keep distance, avoid visitors,. organize food supply, drink a lot ...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Seems to me this might be dependent on the individual. The person needs to have enough viruses in the body to spread it - and the easiest way to spread would be by coughing/sneezing. But are coughing & sneezing symptoms ?
But most people would consider only high fever along with coughing/sneezing as symptoms. So, someone not developing all the symptoms can still spread the virus. Esp. true of kids. They don't seem to get sick - just normal cold - and easily spread the disease. Kids also tend to touch everything (including face/nose).
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I think you answered a different question. Let me give an example to clarify my question:
A comes back from China and has close, prolonged contact with B
B is contacted, and is asymptomatic.
B is instructed to stay at home and to report symptoms, possibly to undergo serial testing
What instructions are given to the people in B's household ?
Yes, people can panic over everything
Which does not say anything about a situation.But you might start to wonder, if one person transmits a disease to 80 persons and another persons transmits to 20 persons, if closing schools, besides isolating confirmed cases and monitoring their contacts should be the only measure.
Isolation and monitoring do have good effects, if those 80 persons were each able to transmit to 80 others. Well, you probably get the math.
But maybe it would be wise at some point that society does take the possibility into account that a virus might be me present among it's members and takes some basic measures to make society as a whole more robust to the spreading of said virus. It might help others in case you didn't visit the doctor with Corona test kit before your first sneeze during rush hour while using some form of mass transit.
I think most or all who studied it in depth do, so that's most likely true.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In that case I agree. The chances of infection spreading from non-symptomatic people is low.
I believe the Kirkland Nursing Home, although small in number, with a very clear denominator both for residents and staff, will help understand not only mortality, but add to our knowledge of R0.
Rogue Synapse
Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
In the elderly, unable to live outside a Nursing home. Just do not try to extrapolate those figures to the population at large, the young population, the population without co-morbidities ...
Great video on how deadly this virus is using data gather as of 2 weeks ago.
TLDR
When virus was first discovered in China, new infection cases were at a growth rate of 50%. If this virus was not contained, total infected as of 2 weeks ago would be 5 million in China. Infection rate is usually logarithmic if unchecked, but more of an S curve then drops off from there if contained. Conclusion, virus in China is actually well contained, not where near black plague numbers.
TLDR
When virus was first discovered in China, new infection cases were at a growth rate of 50%. If this virus was not contained, total infected as of 2 weeks ago would be 5 million in China. Infection rate is usually logarithmic if unchecked, but more of an S curve then drops off from there if contained. Conclusion, virus in China is actually well contained, not where near black plague numbers.
The ones I described before to you.
You can read them here. Its the Robert Koch Institute where I have been BTW a customer for many weeks decades ago. That Institute is the highest authority in terms of infections in Germany and globally recognized as leading.
RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Hinweise zum ambulanten Management von COVID-19-Verdachtsfällen
It never occurred to me that anyone would interpret it as anything other than frustration. These are really old emoticons, going all the way back to BBS days, and I've used them unchanged since then. But maybe usage is changing thanks to emojis? If I type : followed by P I get the following happy-looking emoji:
That's definitely not how that emoticon was used back in the early text days.
It never occurred to me that anyone would interpret it as anything other than frustration. These are really old emoticons, going all the way back to BBS days, and I've used them unchanged since then. But maybe usage is changing thanks to emojis? If I type : followed by P I get the following happy-looking emoji:
I've always used it to give the same meaning as a child sticking their tongue out. A cheeky gesture, like blowing a raspberry. I always reserved
and similar for frustration. I guess the emoticons (or emoji as they're now called) will signify different things in different cultures.
Given that Belgium hasn’t been able to even start to make talks about a new government almost a year after the elections, I doubt that the current interim government is able to do anything at all to prevent panic.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Right now, the best dataset available is from the Princess cruise ship. My understanding is that everyone has been tested, more than one time for some, and we have a clear number of total infected and total number of deaths. That dataset trends nicely with the 0.7% mortality rate.
Confounding factors / biases, however would include:
1) age not representative of the general population (IIRC these were older individuals, on average, than the general population)
2) semi-quarantine conditions (yes, we all know it was a far from perfect scenario)
3) small, confined location
4) reporting bias (I would assume that the smallest little sniffle would get someone tested)
The Kirkland nursing home will provide data as well, however there will be similar confounding factors that make the data obtained not completely applicable to the general population. However, even these flawed datasets are better than nothing.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The CDC reports that there is not enough data to say definitively if there is asymptomatic viral shedding or not:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Q: When is someone infectious?
A: The onset and duration of viral shedding and period of infectiousness for COVID-19 are not yet known. It is possible that SARS-CoV-2 RNA may be detectable in the upper or lower respiratory tract for weeks after illness onset, similar to infection with MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. However, detection of viral RNA does not necessarily mean that infectious virus is present. Asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been reported, but it is not yet known what role asymptomatic infection plays in transmission. Similarly, the role of pre-symptomatic transmission (infection detection during the incubation period prior to illness onset) is unknown. Existing literature regarding SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) suggest that the incubation period may range from 2–14 days.
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