Coronavirus

[sixela]

"If they say a test is crap"

There are different levels of "crap". If you want to do random sampling of a population just to discover roughly how many people have been exposed to a virus in your population, then you need a less reliable test than when you want to determine who's guaranteed to have developed some immunity, when you want to determine whether someone should stay home or whether you want to do some contact tracing.

Even for one test determining the threshold for what is a "positive" result is often a balancing exercise between avoiding false positives (the test says you have property X but in fact you don't have it) and false negatives (the test says you don't have property X but in fact you have it). And getting that right may depend on what you want to use the test for.

 

[SageBrush]

I think that the article isn't saying that it's the silent hypoxia that kills. I think the article is saying that detecting silent hypoxia is a way to detect asymptomatic patients

Extremely unlikely.

The "silent hypoxia" click-bait is just a bit of physiology related to the deoxyhemoglobin saturation curve, and it is in no way peculiar to Covid-19.

 

[SageBrush]

And getting that right may depend on what you want to use the test for.

Quite so, but it also highly depends on the underlying prevalence.

An antibody test with 98.5% specificity used to estimate prevalence is OK if the prevalence is 15%+, but would be a crap test if the underlying prevalence is under 5%

 

[azaz]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

 

[SageBrush]

Mmm.

Those two photos are all one needs to know why the USA is failing to control Covid-19 while Japan still has a functioning economy.

So sad

 

[jbcarioca]

Those two photos are all one needs to know why the USA is failing to control Covid-19 while Japan still has a functioning economy.

So sad

Then there is this:

Matt Drudge seems to have had a new tune these last weeks.

 

[SageBrush]

This article
COVID-19 Strategy: The Japan Model

is a really good read of the Japan Model that has kept their economy open while containing Covid-19.
Japan has a population of ~ 125M, tests ~ 10k people a day, and to date has ~ 270 Covid related deaths.

Contrast and compare to the trump 'clorox and testing' model of economic collapse and 100x Covid-19 morbidity/mortality.

 

[dfwatt]

This article
COVID-19 Strategy: The Japan Model

is a really good read of the Japan Model that has kept their economy open while containing Covid-19.
Japan has a population of ~ 125M, tests ~ 10k people a day, and to date has ~ 270 Covid related deaths.

Contrast and compare to the 'trump' model of economic collapse and 100x Covid-19 morbidity/mortality.

Unfortunately that model may require a culturally more homogeneous, hygiene-compulsive, government-trusting and the Collective-is-more-important-than-the-individual psychology than we have here in Yahoo-land. But I agree it's very instructive on how you can contain this and still maintain at least some economic activity!

 

[dc_h]

Extremely unlikely.

The "silent hypoxia" click-bait is just a bit of physiology related to the deoxyhemoglobin saturation curve, and it is in no way peculiar to Covid-19.

I think silent hypoxia is real. Reports of low oxygen levels seem pretty common. I know some small business will use pulse oximeters at the door with remote temperature checks. It could be another thing we got wrong, but if right, look forward to seeing thermometer and oximeter built into smart watches by next year.

 

[SageBrush]

Unfortunately that model may require a culturally more homogeneous, hygiene-compulsive, government-trusting and the Collective-is-more-important-than-the-individual psychology than we have here in Yahoo-land

One does not have to be OCD to wash hands
A population does not have to be homogenous to not be stupid
Trust in trump would be moronic
Collective psychology is not required to understand that it is a bad idea to cough in each others faces.

The trumper tendency to discount the Covid-19 success in multiple Asian countries as a gross loss of freedom and liberty is conspiracy level poppycock

 

[dfwatt]

One does not have to be OCD to wash hands
A population does not have to be homogenous to not be stupid
Trust in trump would be moronic
Collective psychology is not required to understand that it is a bad idea to cough in each others faces.

The trumper tendency to discount the Covid-19 success in multiple Asian countries as a gross loss of freedom and liberty is conspiracy level poppycock

Of course that's true but you might be under estimating how important some of the Japanese cultural norms are in creating a climate where sensible practices are instantiated universally with minimal resistance. Not that those practices would be impossible in this country but it certainly has got some built-in resistance that doesn't exist in Japanese Society, and those resistances undermine compliance. All it takes is a few Knuckleheads and you know what happens to the r subscript

 

[SageBrush]

Of course that's true but you might be under estimating how important some of the Japanese cultural norms are in creating a climate where sensible practices are instantiated universally with minimal resistance. Not that those practices would be impossible in this country but it certainly has got some built-in resistance that doesn't exist in Japanese Society, and those resistances undermine compliance. All it takes is a few Knuckleheads and you know what happens to the r subscript

Call me a hopeless optimist, but even the USA should be able to learn to wash hands after defecating, urinating, and before handling food; and non stop messaging from every public pulpit that universal mask usage protects us all by protecting each other is not that difficult to comprehend.

 

[dfwatt]

Call me a hopeless optimist, but even the USA should be able to learn to wash hands after defecating, urinating, and before handling food; and non stop messaging from every public pulpit that universal mask usage protects us all by protecting each other is not that difficult to comprehend.

Yes you clearly are a hopeless optimist!

 

[SageBrush]

I think silent hypoxia is real.

You would benefit from reading a little bit about the hemoglobin oxygen physiology.

The important "silent" part of early Covid-19 lung involvement is hypoxemia, and that is not identified by the oximeter.

 

[adiggs]

I decided this is a CV related item, rather than the main investor thread:
Tyson Foods Warns "Food Supply Chain Is Breaking"

The US (and I assume the rest of the world in a similar fashion) food chain is starting to show cracks.


One of the important links talks about a full page ad in the NYT taken out by Tyson Foods:
'The Food Supply Chain is Breaking.' Tyson Foods Warns of Meat Shortage Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

Article talks about the dichotomy of farmers with food they can't sell and food banks with overwhelming demand and no food to provide.

 

[Norbert]

Let's say half (840k) of those 20% are still PCR+ today and NYC ramps way up to 100k tests per day. 100k random tests find 10k cases per day, but even under lockdown those 840k infect another 20-50k per day (100k++ without lockdown). The testing helps, but doesn't solve the underlying problem.

Of course you would still preferably test those who have symptoms (but not as severe as those already tested), and with those who have a lot of required contact with other people, like health care workers, grocery and delivery, first responders, police, and so on. Continuing with those who need to use the subway, taxi/uber drivers, or travel, like truck drivers, airplane personnel, and so on.

It becomes even more important as contact tracing is added and the infection level has gone down, but it would be too late to start testing at that point. To deny the importance of testing is barking at the wrong tree.

 

[Norbert]

In New York City, mortality, deaths per population, today crossed the 0.2% mark:

COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
(11,708 + 5,228) / 8.4 million.

It was 0.13% not so long ago.

Since not everyone is infected (yet), true IFR in NYC must be a multiple of 0.2%, refuting any theory that claimed unknown infections are so high that we could reach herd immunity we less than 0.2% fatality. With hard evidence, not speculation or estimates.

 

[AZRI11]

Stay at home not working when grocery and liquor stores are open, and of course subways and buses and so on. The good news is the rate of death is far less than 1%. 1 in 4 in NYC May Have Been Infected, New Study Finds; Some Parts of State to ‘UNPause’ May 15

 

[FoverM]

You would benefit from reading a little bit about the hemoglobin oxygen physiology.

The important "silent" part of early Covid-19 lung involvement is hypoxemia, and that is not identified by the oximeter.

If this condition isn't detected by a pulse ox device then why did the doctor who wrote the piece specifically recommend getting one? Who is correct?

Also, if the virus attacks the surfactant-producing cells which then causes the air sacs to collapse leading to hypoxemia/hypoxia, why doesn't that also lead to a build up of CO2 in the body? I thought there was an exchange of gases going on in the lungs.

 

[N5329K]

CV-19, blood clots, "young, healthy patient" strokes and the common link of oxidative stress:

Robin