Coronavirus

[ZeApelido]

Sweden did what was right for Swedes. What's right for America? The Predicted Coronavirus Catastrophe Hasn’t Arrived In Sweden. What’s Next?

Sweden has 3x-6x more deaths per capita compared to its geographical and cultural neighbors.

 

[dhanson865]

At my local supermarket, I noticed some of the clerks and baggers wearing masks on their chins... Not covering their mouth or nose at all. I wasn't sure if it was "I can't breath through this thing" or "If you are going to force me to wear a mask, I am going to mis-use it in protest."

I was counting those in the "not wearing a mask" group. So with that clarification:

I'm seeing 3 kinds of people locally
* wearing a mask that covers mouth and nose
* wearing a mask covering only the mouth or only the nose (more often the mouth is covered and the nose isn't, and the mask is plenty big enough to cover both, looks new, nothing wrong with it)
* not wearing a mask. (including those that have a mask hanging on them somewhere somehow that doesn't cover mouth or nose).

in that last category is where I'd put someone that takes the mask off to talk to someone within arms reach or so and then puts it back on when they walk away. (yes I saw a grocery store employee do that).

 

[AZRI11]

Sweden has 3x-6x more deaths per capita compared to its geographical and cultural neighbors.

Swedes are happy with their governments decision. Sweden's choice Pun Intended.

 

[ZeApelido]

More pondering about how things could possibly go well for Tesla in the short term.

So...most people who buy Teslas are pretty well off, and I would guess a majority of them are in the high risk category (40+). If it's not a majority, it's still a significant proportion.

Even if the factories do open up (which seems doubtful by May 4th?), I assume people who are new to Tesla will want test drives at some point? How will this happen? Will there be instant tests available for Tesla employees, so that they can accompany the test drives? Or will they be unaccompanied test drives (kind of like the touchless delivery)? How much baking in the sun is required to kill the virus given that windows block 95% of the UV?

Etc. Won't this introduce an impediment to economic activity?

I assume they're going to come up with more or less frictionless means of ensuring no transmission, but it's a mystery to me what these will be, exactly, and how long it will take to establish them. Any ideas?

Briefly hit over $800 after hours, but now we're headed back down. Perhaps more pessimistic minds have prevailed.

Search frequency for tesla cars has dropped over 50% in U.S and worldwide since February. One would think this would show up in reduced demand, but it would probably have to persist into Q3 to see the effect. Q2 is already going to be reduced due to lowered production, so any reduced demand may not be visible until production for a quarter is at full tilt.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Q2 is already going to be reduced due to lowered production,

For sure. I wonder how bad this production picture will actually get, though? It seems like Stay at Home orders are extended until the end of May, so how does Fremont open up? Seems like it should not (no surprises here - I would be shocked if it opened up on May 4th) unless very special measures are put in place (which seems totally possible, but at this point I would expect that it would have been publicly discussed).

Coupled with Elon's tweets from the weekend (which I presume were a byproduct of his frustration with state authorities telling him that no way in heck is anything going to open up May 4th - so...CONSPIRACY... ), I just think we're looking at a delay until mid-May.

I just think it's going to take time to establish reliable metrics for progress, and build up test capacity & other related containment/suppression infrastructure. I could see certain economic activities resuming with tight restrictions in mid-May, if development of all of that infrastructure goes well (for example, widespread availability of reliable (minimal false negatives!) instant testing, local housing at factory to reduce test load, etc.).

I think it's probably true that from the demand side Tesla will be somewhat protected, vs. other automakers. But it depends on how bad things get. I feel like there is no reason they need to get that bad if containment and suppression methods are executed on properly (at most it seems like it would cost $100 billion to have something decent in place, which seems like a no-brainer in terms of medical cost savings, not to mention economic output benefits). So hopeful that we're really talking about a short to medium term picture here, and by Q3/Q4 things will bear some resemblance to "normal" (with tons of containment infrastructure in place).

 

[Norbert]

How often are you planning to test these people ?

As often as they are thankful for it.

Why is nobody talking about N100 masks? Are they a marketing gimmick?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Why is nobody talking about N100 masks? Are they a marketing gimmick?

No, the P100 are not. (P vs. N has something to do with oil resistance.) But they often tend to be one way (they don't protect anyone but the wearer). They work well. I should wear mine around combined with a surgical mask or something.

I guess it depends on the mask. But anyway presumably N100 are more costly. We really just need everyone wearing masks. Long term, I'd prefer real masks rather than cloth masks, so I guess I'd take 2x N95 vs. 1x N100.

Regarding costs of suppression/containment, here's a nice thread about the costs to do a really bad job of suppression:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter


Regarding number of positive test results...

Seems possible that tomorrow we will see an all-time high on positive results. Depends on the test volume. Positivity is down a tiny amount vs. a week ago. But if we have 300k tests tomorrow I'd expect to see something like 40k new positive results.

Note Trevor thinks we're generating about 300k-600k new cases daily in the United States. So presumably that means we need at least that many tests per day, for starters.... Ideally something like 1-2 million per day.

 

[TEG]

I assume they're going to come up with more or less frictionless means of ensuring no transmission, but it's a mystery to me what these will be, exactly, and how long it will take to establish them. Any ideas?

Yeah, need that "car drives itself to the customer" feature they keep talking about...

Then if you don't like it after a test drive, then the car would just drive itself back to the store.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yeah, need that "car drives itself to the customer" feature they keep talking about...

Then if you don't like it after a test drive, then the car would just drive itself back to the store.

Based on that recent stop light and stop sign recognition release, this feature is obviously coming in about 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.

In other news, my car recently identified a suspicious cone in my garage. Robotaxis are coming.

 

[Norbert]

Stay at home not working when grocery and liquor stores are open, and of course subways and buses and so on. The good news is the rate of death is far less than 1%. 1 in 4 in NYC May Have Been Infected, New Study Finds; Some Parts of State to ‘UNPause’ May 15

The new number of 24.7% infected vs last weeks number of 21.2% infected does not change the fatality rates, compared to what we calculated last week.
(If it does, likely someone isn't making the right calculation.)

More infected just means correspondingly more deaths down the road. You would have to know the deaths in advance, to know if that new number of infected changes the rate.

 

[TEG]

...
* not wearing a mask. (including those that have a mask hanging on them somewhere somehow that doesn't cover mouth or nose).

in that last category is where I'd put someone that takes the mask off to talk to someone within arms reach or so and then puts it back on when they walk away. (yes I saw a grocery store employee do that).

Sheesh. The mask is there mainly for those times you are talking (or coughing, laughing, sneezing, ...)
If you remove it to talk you really have missed the point completely.

 

[powertoold]

Sweden has 3x-6x more deaths per capita compared to its geographical and cultural neighbors.

Currently.

Anyway, the fact is, it's slowing down worldwide, even in countries that haven't locked down. There haven't been any double peaks that I'm aware of. Most people just need to follow precautions, and the cases will stay at an acceptable level.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Most people just need to follow precautions, and the cases will stay at an acceptable level.

I think that understates the effect of the MASSIVE efforts of the public health authorities in the places where things are under control. For sure, people need to follow precautions and wear masks pretty much everywhere, but the public health infrastructure is really important to keep things contained.

 

[powertoold]

I think that understates the effect of the MASSIVE efforts of the public health authorities in the places where things are under control. For sure, people need to follow precautions and wear masks pretty much everywhere, but the public health infrastructure is really important to keep things contained.

Much of the directives and "lockdown" instructions are preaching to the choir. Despite the many people who aren't following the directives (and some countries with no strict directives at all), we're still seeing a drop in cases.

I'm in the camp that people need to take this seriously, and people need to be vigilant and take precautions, but we shouldn't be closing all / hard-earned businesses that were built on years of sweat and tears.

 

[powertoold]

It's very likely that with precautions and vigilance in place (without a lockdown), this will have a lower impact than the seasonal flu.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Much of the directives and "lockdown" instructions are preaching to the choir.

I'm not talking about the directives. I'm talking about the actual actions of the public health authorities in countries where this epidemic is contained.

I'm in the camp that people need to take this seriously, and people need to be vigilant and take precautions, but we shouldn't be closing all / hard-earned businesses that were built on years of sweat and tears.

Sure. Unfortunately we need firm data to proceed. Lots of aid should be provided to such businesses to help compensate for the ~2 months of shutdown while the government gathers the appropriate data and implements appropriate containment strategies going forward. And of course, education of the public should continue.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's very likely that with precautions and vigilance in place (without a lockdown), this will have a lower impact than the seasonal flu.

Whaaa...? It's had a larger impact than seasonal flu WITH all the precautions, vigilance, and with a lockdown. Obviously the precautions could have been in place before it started spreading, and then maybe you would be correct, though I have serious doubts unless compliance were 100% - and I'm not even sure in that case. We need more data! What we do know is that we'll lose 55k citizens in a month (roughly equivalent to a flu season of 200k-250k deaths or so, but with lockdown in place).

In other news, here's a flight from today:

Looks like we will have ongoing data to process.

 

[powertoold]

Whaaa...? It's had a larger impact than seasonal flu WITH all the precautions, vigilance, and with a lockdown. Obviously the precautions could have been in place before it started spreading, and then maybe you would be correct, though I have serious doubts unless compliance were 100%

From this point on, if most people follow precautions and are vigilant, we separate people as much as possible, reopen all businesses, do you think it'll have more impact than the flu? I don't.

As for compliance, it currently isn't 100%, likely around 80-90%, and I estimate around 5-10% of any USA lockdown area are going out to buy stuff or food on any given day (i.e. encountering a lot of possible carriers).

 

[Norbert]

No, the P100 are not. (P vs. N has something to do with oil resistance.) But they often tend to be one way (they don't protect anyone but the wearer). They work well. I should wear mine around combined with a surgical mask or something.

I guess it depends on the mask. But anyway presumably N100 are more costly. We really just need everyone wearing masks. Long term, I'd prefer real masks rather than cloth masks, so I guess I'd take 2x N95 vs. 1x N100.

In packs of 20, I've seen a price of $10 each N100 mask. Doesn't sound that expensive, I guess it depends on how long they last.
Just wondering, I don't know if it would make sense to use N100 masks. Out of stock anyway.

Regarding costs of suppression/containment, here's a nice thread about the costs to do a really bad job of suppression:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Trevor is worthwhile reading. For me it is difficult to imagine testing wouldn't be worth the expense.

Regarding number of positive test results...

Seems possible that tomorrow we will see an all-time high on positive results. Depends on the test volume. Positivity is down a tiny amount vs. a week ago. But if we have 300k tests tomorrow I'd expect to see something like 40k new positive results.

Note Trevor thinks we're generating about 300k-600k new cases daily in the United States. So presumably that means we need at least that many tests per day, for starters.... Ideally something like 1-2 million per day.

It would be great if there was a statistician who we could trust who is able to translate those numbers (testing rate, positivity, etc) into an estimate of actual cases, as they develop over time...

EDIT: To a large degree, we keep having to go by death rate, which is like driving looking into the rear view mirror.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From this point on, if most people follow precautions and are vigilant, we separate people as much as possible, reopen all businesses, do you think it'll have more impact than the flu? I don't.

Yes, I do think it will have far higher impact going forward, in the absence of robust public health measures (test, trace, isolate/quarantine) and government intervention to provide appropriate PPE & put forward regulatory actions, even if people are doing their best. Just need to spend, spend, spend. I'd guess $100 billion or so on those specific public health infrastructure improvements (as mentioned above, a no-brainer).

However, I do believe there's no reason it has to have more impact than the flu, going forward.