Coronavirus

[N5329K]

Is COVID-19 not just a respiratory disease, but also (or mainly) an endothelial disease?
Robin

 

[FoverM]

This anecdote is not unique. Most of my friends are environmentally conscience and relatively affluent but don’t suffer fools. Musk seems to most of them as as “unhinged”, “an egotist”, “intensely dislikable” and most cuttingly of all: “more Thanos than Captain Planet”. These are people that thought of him as a hero not so long ago.

Are these people so desperate for meaning in their lives that they behave like "church ladies" searching for transgressions in the thoughts and statements of others? Or maybe Musk has been possessed by Satan (the last word should be spoken slowly with a rising/questioning pitch).

 

[azaz]

also Musk blocking journalists he doesn't like is one thing, but blocking random doctors just because he disagrees with them is something else. when did he become so arrogant and thin skinned?

Esther “STAY HOME” Choo, MD MPH on Twitter

 

[Singer3000]

Are these people so desperate for meaning in their lives that they behave like "church ladies" searching for transgressions in the thoughts and statements of others? Or maybe Musk has been possessed by Satan (the last word should be spoken slowly with a rising/questioning pitch).

I don’t know anyone that goes to church or believes in Satan? Most just think he’s started to behave like an arrogant child and are not minded to drop £40k on his product when the advertising tells them there are alternatives “coming soon”, when “soon” might be a time they’re less worried for their health and their jobs.

If you don’t believe me, see how many Model 3s are available on the UK site, bearing in mind it’s now quite a while since they manufactured any right hand drive models. After Hours price off the back of that joke of an earnings report gave me a chuckle I must say.

 

[uujjj]

My guess: Alameda County health officials made Tesla delay the factory restart by a few weeks, and Elon is pissed.

Hey, I get it. I HATE HATE HATE this social distancing too.

The known case fatality rate is around 5%, about 10X too high to just let the virus run wild. Now, there's a few *very preliminary* antibody studies suggesting the real fatality rate is much lower than 5%, but if those studies are wrong the death toll will be in the millions. Also, the New York City antibody data suggests the real fatality rate is just a hair under 1%, still too high. The precautionary principle means we need much stronger evidence that the fatality rate really is well under 0.5% before we allow the virus to spread wild.

We have a plan in place to keep social distancing in effect until the case count is small enough to track and contact trace every single positive. That'll take about another month in California, and it varies elsewhere. This is the lowest risk strategy. Unless there is overwhelming evidence that it is safe to short circuit the strategy, the strategy stays. Sorry, Elon.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We have a plan in place to keep social distancing in effect until the case count is small enough to track and contact trace every single positive. That'll take about another month in California, and it varies elsewhere. This is the lowest risk strategy. Unless there is overwhelming evidence that it is safe to short circuit the strategy, the strategy stays. Sorry, Elon.

Very sensible. I don't understand the resistance to this simple strategy - it's obvious that it works. If only people would stop trying to sabotage it then we could really make some progress.

After Hours price off the back of that joke of an earnings report gave me a chuckle I must say.

$880 I guess makes sense. Definitely I am regretting selling a bunch at $800, but that's ok. They "made" some money, making & shipping 3s in China (no sign that will slow), are working on making Y in China, and can just take a few more weeks off in California before starting things up again. It also helps that "guidance is on hold" for them. Tesla not having to provide guidance is likely a good thing!

I'm not sure what Elon was freaking out about. Is it really the end of the world to have the plant sit idle for a few more weeks? It's not like they're losing their edge against other manufacturers right now. Everyone just needs to chill, so that others may live.

Overall, the future looks bright for Tesla! They have compelling products, looks like they'll have Democrats in power in Senate, House, and Presidency in 2021, and are on the right side of things for the climate crisis (and don't forget air pollution, which kills tons of people - long tailpipes are good!)

 

[Norbert]

And you think the majority of those participating in the economy have these issues? Ok....

As with everything else, common sense must be used. People who are young and fit should be allowed to get back to work to help support the economy and in turn support those who cannot work. I don’t see how anyone can disagree with that.

Age is by far the single biggest risk factor. Half the deaths come from people over 80, and ~80% for people over 65 (ie people generally already retired).

The high percentage among the higher age groups distracts from the fact that the age group 45-64 still has almost the average risk.

In other words: The average numbers being discussed do apply to the 45-64 age group (almost).

I think it would be enormously difficult to separate even the above 80 group, but you might disagree.
For the above 45 age group, that's definitely impossible.

COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

 

[ZachF]

Not entirely true. Older people are dying at a higher rate because they have a higher likelyhood of having one or more co-morbidities.

CDC sez:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
"...older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19."

"Conditions and Other Risk Factors
Asthma
Chronic lung disease
Diabetes
Serious heart conditions
Chronic kidney disease being treated with dialysis
Severe obesity
People aged 65 years and older
People in nursing homes or long-term care facilities
Immunocompromised
Liver disease"

How Many Adults Are at Risk of Serious Illness If Infected with Coronavirus? Updated Data

"Key Findings

• About four in ten adults (37.6%) ages 18 and older in the U.S. (92.6 million people) have a higher risk of developing serious illness if they become infected with coronavirus, due to their older age (65 and older) or health condition (Figure 1; Table 1).
• Just over half of those at higher risk of developing a serious illness are ages 65 and older (55.2% or 51.1 million adults); however, the remaining 41.4 million adults ages 18-64 are at risk due to an underlying medical condition.
• The share of adults ages 18 and older who have a higher risk of developing a more serious illness varies across the country, ranging from 49.3 percent (West Virginia) to 30 percent (Utah).
• In some of the states with the highest number of reported coronavirus cases thus far, the share of adults at high risk of serious illness if infected is relatively high: Louisiana and Florida (at 42.1 percent, each) and Michigan (41.2 percent).
• An estimated 5.1 million adults who are at higher risk of getting a serious illness if they become infected with coronavirus are uninsured."

The high percentage among the higher age groups distracts from the fact that the age group 45-64 still has almost the average risk.

In other words: The average numbers being discussed do apply to the 45-64 age group (almost).

I think it would be enormously difficult to separate even the above 80 group, but you might disagree.
For the above 45 age group, that's definitely impossible.

COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

The 45-54 group is almost 2.3x lower than the 54-64 group.

If you just take this table and convert the population fatality rate compared to the average overall rate, it looks like this:

0.0001 0-14yo
0.0076 15-24yo
0.0576 25-34yo
0.1613 35-44yo
0.4300 45-54yo
1.0000 AVERAGE
1.0143 55-64yo
2.3843 65-74yo
5.8953 75-84yo
14.2416 85yo+

Death rate increases by about 12% for every year older you are. I don't know how anyone can look at this and say age isn't the largest risk factor. The 85+ population is only 2% of the overall US population but they are almost 30% of COVID deaths.

 

[feigen66]

COVID-19 & Pneumonia is probably the actual death caused by COVID-19. The rest can be a lot of factors which is not directly contributed by COVID-19.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I don't know how anyone can look at this and say age isn't the largest risk factor

It certainly is, but it doesn't make me feel much better at age 43 and extremely fit.

If you just take this table

Just note that 1) This is not the latest table and 2) even in the latest table, in NYC alone, 2743 people have died of COVID-19 between the ages of 45-64. So this table is lagging a bit. (It shows 3201 deaths from COVID nationwide, and the latest table shows 5290 nationwide.)

If we conservatively (it is very likely very conservative based on NYC numbers) say that about 10k 45-64 year olds have died of COVID in the US so far, with about 3% incidence nationwide (assuming uniform incidence across age groups which may not be valid but that's fine - won't be a huge error for this age group), that works out to be 10k/(0.03*41.6e6) = 0.8% IFR for that age group.

I believe that confirms what @Norbert is saying; that that age group has about the same risk as the overall population.

EDIT: Corrected my numbers above as I forgot to add the two age groups together, but the lagging comments still stand.

 

[Norbert]

The 45-54 group is almost 2.3x lower than the 54-64 group.

If you just take this table and convert the population fatality rate compared to the average overall rate, it looks like this:

0.0001 0-14yo
0.0076 15-24yo
0.0576 25-34yo
0.1613 35-44yo
0.4300 45-54yo
1.0000 AVERAGE
1.0143 55-64yo
2.3843 65-74yo
5.8953 75-84yo
14.2416 85yo+

Death rate increases by about 12% for every year older you are. I don't know how anyone can look at this and say age isn't the largest risk factor

And I don't know how anyone can look at the current data and say the above 80 years old are the only real risk group.

BTW, how about using the data from April 29, instead of from April 21?

In New York City, the first link I posted, the risk among 45-64 combined is higher:
133.36 per 100k vs 146.3 per 100K, which is 91% of the average risk.

The CDC data from April 29 shows
for 45-64 added together: (1,721 + 4,199) / (41,631,699 + 42,272,636) = 7.1 per 100K.
average overall: = (33,513 / 327,167,434) = 10.2 per 100K.
So nation wide it is 69% of the average.

This suggests that as you come closer to herd immunity, or over time, the 45-64 years old group is affected increasingly. My guess is the percentage will increase above 91% in NYC over the next few weeks.

EDIT: Plus, as I hear, even if you don't die, it can be a horrible experience. (And surely affect your health afterwards.)

 

[NicoV]

Belgium’s new cases count has been fairly high the last few weeks. The reason is a government effort to test every resident and all personnel in the nursing homes. By the end of this weekend, that effort will be completed. We see the results now that deaths from nursing homes are 80% confirmed cases currently while a couple of weeks ago most nursing home deaths where suspected to be covid victims.
I would expect to see our new case count down next week because of end of this systematic testing effort. Next week also a first set of restrictions is relaxed, and Belgium will start contact tracing again, together with even more testing (of anybody with covid-like syntoms, and identified contacts)

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'm not sure what Elon was freaking out about.

He's had the Q1 numbers for a month, the source of his current angst is more recent. Assuming net 60 terms they're paying almost 500m/week of AP. Another 100m/week or so in salaries, rent, etc. They presumably offset part of that by collecting most of the 1.2b AR, though it's not clear to me why AR was that high in the first place since they didn't deliver that many cars in the final week or two.

The bigger issue may be purchase commitments, though. The Panasonic deal is basically take-or-pay. Maybe they can force majeure out of it or something, otherwise they'll may need to re-negotiate from a position of weakness. They may have also made firm volume commits with other suppliers to get better pricing. Musk likes to push the envelope -- e.g. going naked on D&O. With a personal guarantee no less!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

He's had the Q1 numbers for a month, the source of his current angst is more recent. Assuming net 60 terms they're paying almost 500m/week of AP. Another 100m/week or so in salaries, rent, etc. They presumably offset part of that by collecting most of the 1.2b AR, though it's not clear to me why AR was that high in the first place since they didn't deliver that many cars in the final week or two.

The bigger issue may be purchase commitments, though. The Panasonic deal is basically take-or-pay. Maybe they can force majeure out of it or something, otherwise they'll may need to re-negotiate from a position of weakness. They may have also made firm volume commits with other suppliers to get better pricing. Musk likes to push the envelope -- e.g. going naked on D&O. With a personal guarantee no less!

Seems like something a businessman like him might have been able to work out.

Looks like he's gonna get his grant at 1.69million @ $350 per share, so he'll probably survive somehow. I understand he lives hand to mouth, so this was probably important to him.

Still, it seems weird that an extra 3 weeks of not producing cars (which, I might add, has been 100% obvious since early March would be the minimum start date just using past curves) makes the difference between complete failure and a car company taking over the world.

 

[EVNow]

He's had the Q1 numbers for a month, the source of his current angst is more recent. Assuming net 60 terms they're paying almost 500m/week of AP. Another 100m/week or so in salaries, rent, etc. They presumably offset part of that by collecting most of the 1.2b AR, though it's not clear to me why AR was that high in the first place since they didn't deliver that many cars in the final week or two.

The bigger issue may be purchase commitments, though. The Panasonic deal is basically take-or-pay. Maybe they can force majeure out of it or something, otherwise they'll may need to re-negotiate from a position of weakness. They may have also made firm volume commits with other suppliers to get better pricing. Musk likes to push the envelope -- e.g. going naked on D&O. With a personal guarantee no less!

I personally think, opening Fremont with safety precautions like in GF3 is in order. I think it is lower risk now than in March.

The only question is - will the working folks at Fremont be as obedient and follow necessary precautions like the workers at GF3 do ? The last thing Tesla needs is to reopen the factory and in a couple weeks have a Covid break-out or worse a superspreading event happen in the factory. That will force a shutdown for weeks again ...

Still, it seems weird that an extra 3 weeks of not producing cars (which, I might add, has been 100% obvious since early March would be the minimum start date just using past curves) makes the difference between complete failure and a car company taking over the world.

After the difficult '19 Q1 & Q2, Tesla has done a lot of work to optimize margins. A lot of that hardwork will be undone if they need to renegotiate terms because of missing volume etc.

Its not really about "complete failure" - its about going back to lower margins and losses. Profit in Q2 will put Tesla in S&P 500, which will be great for TSLA.​

 

[renim]

Term 2 schooling arrangements - Department of Education

Western australia schools have returned to face to face class.

The spacious states (WA, SA, NT, Qld ex SE) have gotten off very lightly from Covid19 and are on trajectories back to new normal.

On a nationwide basis, new cases are now less than 1/ million capita.

CovidSafe app (aussie version of singapore trace tracker) downloaded 3 million times.

10,000,000 tests secured, more than 1 per household!

500,000 tests already performed.

There was no hammer, but instead 6 month sustainable measures.

Now to see if there is a dance or not.

(In short, its over in Oz now, still have a slow and deliberate wind down to occur, but the health battle is won.)
(Don't expect borders to open any time soon)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I personally think, opening Fremont with safety precautions like in GF3 is in order. I think it is lower risk now than in March.

Disagree. Alameda County alone is producing about 130-260 new cases each day (26 of which they are catching). This is basically the same level they were at in late March! In all of Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, they maxed out at about 20 local community transmission cases per day! And the factory is way down south on the coast, miles from the city center.

ArcGIS Dashboards

They need to wait an additional couple weeks at least to get the cases down to the point where they can contact trace.

It's very high likelihood with the number of workers in the factory that there would be an outbreak there with cases at the current level. There's no way to screen people for the virus (short of RNA testing, which they should consider of course).

I think they should plan for a three-week delay, delaying to mid-May as expected, and in the meantime work on a plan to keep people at the factory in a safe way and in coordination with the governor. There must be extensive testing and contact tracing in place to make sure infection does not hit the factory. There are many lives at stake here...

All I've heard from people who are receiving unemployment (admittedly it is a small sample and some people will be in worse situations) is that they're pretty happy with their unemployment income and the federal checks for the time being; it is quite workable. Seems like we spent hundreds of billions of dollars so that people would NOT work - so that we could get the case numbers down. Seems like insanity to just give up on the plan at this point, before we've actually accomplished that goal.

 

[azaz]

Musk has been reading a ton of mcafee/Ellison/thiel. Pretty clear from his answer

 

[deonb]

It's the end of April and new cases do seem to be slowing dramatically.

A month and a half ago this thread was flipping out that at a minimum 1M Americans were about to die and that doubled if we don't execute well. I would call that over-hyped.

I haven't been following Elon's tweets, but I haven't seen much of him latching onto the "freedoms" bandwagon. Yesterday he said Silicon...

This is where I stopped and checked Elon's Twitter feed.............Yikes. Not a good look the past 24hrs. Other than that, his general stance had been generally correct.

 

[EVNow]

Disagree. Alameda County alone is producing about 130-260 new cases each day (26 of which they are catching). This is basically the same level they were at in late March! In all of Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, they maxed out at about 20 local community transmission cases per day! And the factory is way down south on the coast miles from the city center.

ArcGIS Dashboards

They need to wait an additional couple weeks at least to get the cases down to the point where they can contact trace.

It's very high likelihood with the number of workers in the factory that there would be an outbreak there with cases at the current level. There's no way to screen people for the virus (short of RNA testing, which they should consider of course).

I think they should plan for a three-week delay, delaying to mid-May as expected, and in the meantime work on a plan to keep people at the factory in a safe way and in coordination with the governor.

1.7 Million population and 25 confirmed cases. So, even with assumed 250 infected, we are looking at 0.015% or 1.5 infected per 10,000.

So, on average we can say 1 to 2 people in the Fremont workforce are infected. With safety precautions, multiple shifts, I think that is low risk. Now, if the infections raise in the community it gets complicated.