Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

So, on average we can say 1 to 2 people in the Fremont workforce is infected.

I think it is insanity to think that safety precautions will be sufficient. Can you cite a single example where that has proven to be enough? There is no evidence to date that standard infection control procedures will stop this virus. With 10k workers at that factory, the only way you can open it up is if you can get the case load down to a point where it is unlikely anyone will have it - or you test every person every day. Or, you get the case load down, and then you have extensive contact tracing so you can identify outbreaks rapidly before they spread. (Cases tend to occur in clusters, they are not uniformly distributed - that's one reason why contact tracing can work.)

In three weeks, I would hope that the situation will be a lot more manageable and it will be reasonable to talk about this possibility. It would probably help to have reduced production/worker density, possibly workers who stay on-site rather than mixing with the community, etc.

It would be nice to have a factor of 10 or so improvement, where you do not have widespread community transmission. That may be possible with some upfront work now - in addition to having most people wait at home, there has to be a lot of work done NOW to chase down cases and remove them from the population ASAP.

 

[azaz]

His thinking is so stupid, doesn’t stand up to an ounce of intellectual questioning and yet he sees all this criticism and still thinks he’s right? Or is he just blocking everyone on Twitter that tries to educate him?

what an out touch hubristic clown

 

[EVNow]

I think it is insanity to think that safety precautions will be sufficient. Can you cite a single example where that has proven to be enough? There is no evidence to date that standard infection control procedures will stop this virus. With 10k workers at that factory, the only way you can open it up is if you can get the case load down to a point where it is unlikely anyone will have it - or you test every person every day. Or, you get the case load down, and then you have extensive contact tracing so you can identify outbreaks rapidly before they spread. (Cases tend to occur in clusters, they are not uniformly distributed - that's one reason why contact tracing can work.)

I think they can do tracing / testing if anyone in the workforce gets symptoms. That way they can prevent break-outs in the factory.

In three weeks, I would hope that the situation will be a lot more manageable and it will be reasonable to talk about this possibility. It would probably help to have reduced production/worker density, possibly workers who stay on-site rather than mixing with the community, etc.

It would be nice to have a factor of 10 or so improvement, where you do not have widespread community transmission. That may be possible with some upfront work now - in addition to having most people wait at home, there has to be a lot of work done NOW to chase down cases and remove them from the population ASAP.

I'm not hopeful in the community at large they ill be able to bring the cases down significantly in 2 weeks or even 2 months. There is no contact tracing that is going on AFAIK, nor realistic plans to start such a program (?).

In WA, Inslee has ordered new workers to be hired / moved to do contact tracing (1,500). So, I guess they can trace about that many cases per day. How many will CA need … and are they hiring as many ?

ps : In CA plan - Manufacturing is to be opened next. So, whenever the stage 2 starts, Fremont will open.

 

[EVNow]

I got a note from my physician that they can arrange for IgG antibody testing for anyone now. Quest is doing one for $55. I see you can also order one on Quest website. But no information on the exact test and its specificity etc.

Covid-19 Antibody : Antibody

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A lot of that hardwork will be undone if they need to renegotiate terms because of missing volume etc.

Its not really about "complete failure" - its about going back to lower margins and losses. Profit in Q2 will put Tesla in S&P 500, which will be great for TSLA.

Well, hopefully they'll be able to renegotiate things if need be. Profit in Q2 seems very doubtful, but presumably there may be exceptions made to the rules for inclusion in S&P 500.

So, I guess they can trace about that many cases per day. How many will CA need … and are they hiring as many ?

There is ALWAYS contact tracing going on. It's a standard part of county health authorities toolbox when dealing with infectious disease.

They need 12k to 36k contact tracers, and Newsom has initial plans to hire 10k (announced last week), and integrate them into existing contact tracing programs in each of the counties. I imagine they are rushing this. In parallel they're trying to get to something like 60-80k tests per day in the state (that seems like a decent level given current outbreak size; it would give below 5% positivity, but they need to hurry).

Obviously, time is of the essence, but the good news is that this is probably the primary focus right now - since the only way the lockdown can end is if the case numbers are way down. There's no way to end it otherwise (it would have been just a waste of time and money).

We Asked All 50 States About Their Contact Tracing Capacity. Here's What We Learned

 

[deonb]

Am I interpreting the remdesivir study data correctly?

Mortality rate of 8.0 vs 11.6 on the placebo.

So if this all pans out it has the potential to reduce IFR from 1.0 to 0.7 ?

 

[Dr. J]

His thinking is so stupid, doesn’t stand up to an ounce of intellectual questioning and yet he sees all this criticism and still thinks he’s right? Or is he just blocking everyone on Twitter that tries to educate him?

what an out touch hubristic clown

These are also the characteristics of people with great influence on history. Imagine if his talents were harnessed to evil instead of good. He's an idiot, but by god he's our idiot.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This relatively large difference suggests that tomorrow could be a larger day for COVID Tracking than today - but not surprisingly, it depends on the numbers tomorrow morning. The lag from the weekend can be pretty long.

Not surprisingly, an all-time high for deaths today at 2700 for COVID Tracking. Looks like the rest of the country is picking up New York's slack.

This is not surprising at all, since we were bumping along at a massive 25-35k (probably 250-350k total daily infections) daily cases 1-2 weeks ago. We should expect big numbers for a while, though hopefully will start to taper off very soon, since today's 25-30k numbers are less weighty (hopefully they mean more like 150k-200k total daily infections) than the same 25-30k numbers a couple weeks ago, due to increased testing.

Testing was up to about 230k today, which is good, but still needs to go much higher. 27.5k positives, 12% positive, which is good. Hopefully we can scale testing up and get those daily positives above 50k or even 75k!

So if this all pans out it has the potential to reduce IFR from 1.0 to 0.7 ?

That's what I've interpreted it as. It seems pretty good, for sure! Hopefully it holds up when used more broadly. Every little bit helps. Too bad it's not a 10x reduction.

 

[deonb]

I got a note from my physician that they can arrange for IgG antibody testing for anyone now. Quest is doing one for $55. I see you can also order one on Quest website. But no information on the exact test and its specificity etc.

Covid-19 Antibody : Antibody

Looks like they need a 1ml specimen, so this isn't a finger prick test I take it?

 

[azaz]

These are also the characteristics of people with great influence on history. Imagine if his talents were harnessed to evil instead of good. He's an idiot, but by god he's our idiot.

true, I have defended him so many times over the years by pointing out what he is doing is a net good for humanity but man this *sugar* is disappointing

 

[Daniel in SD]

I got a note from my physician that they can arrange for IgG antibody testing for anyone now. Quest is doing one for $55. I see you can also order one on Quest website. But no information on the exact test and its specificity etc.

Covid-19 Antibody : Antibody

Technically it's only for people who have had known exposure.

IgG antibody testing may be performed on healthcare workers and patients who currently have few to no symptoms but have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the past.

If a serology test delivers a positive result for the IgG antibody, that means the individual was previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and may have developed some level of immunity to the virus.

Note: The SARS-CoV-2 antibody test has not been validated for purposes of diagnosis of infection or disease (COVID-19) and cannot be used to rule in or rule out infection of COVID-19. Quest offers the molecular test (test code 39448) for diagnosing an active COVID-19 infection.

There are a couple people here who think they've had it, were you one of them?

 

[deonb]

Not surprisingly, an all-time high for deaths today at 2700 for COVID Tracking. Looks like the rest of the country is picking up New York's slack.

What source are you using? That number is significantly higher than worldometers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What source are you using? That number is significantly higher than worldometers.

The COVID Tracking Project. Yesterday they were lower than Worldometer, so it evens out. They use different accumulation intervals (COVID's ends around 1PM or so) so this makes sense. It was a big afternoon yesterday for Worldometer, and a big morning this morning. That means big numbers for COVID Tracking.

 

[ZachF]

Am I interpreting the remdesivir study data correctly?

Mortality rate of 8.0 vs 11.6 on the placebo.

So if this all pans out it has the potential to reduce IFR from 1.0 to 0.7 ?

Not a magic bullet, but many tens of thousands of lives if it pans out

 

[deonb]

Technically it's only for people who have had known exposure.

So it excludes the astronauts on the ISS?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think they can do tracing / testing if anyone in the workforce gets symptoms. That way they can prevent break-outs in the factory.

This won't work.

 

[renim]

This won't work.

Depends on how well it is done, and how sufficient the physical distancing is.

If 2 shift workforce, start back on 1 shift, using members whose age/gender/dexa scan demonstrate the highest survivability, lowest transmissibility odds.

Thermal scan, resting heart rate trend

And lots of air flow. Outside preferably.

Space, test, trace, isolate.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Depends on how well it is done, and how sufficient the physical distancing is.

If 2 shift workforce, start back on 1 shift, using members whose age/gender/dexa scan demonstrate the highest survivability, lowest transmissibility odds.

Thermal scan, resting heart rate trend

And lots of air flow. Outside preferably.

Space, test, trace, isolate.

You're from Australia! Your entire pandemic infected 0.026% (measured cases) of your population. (And your case pickup rate was likely better than ours due to massive early testing, so probably your actual number of infections was less than 0.1% of the population.) And a huge proportion of your cases were travel-related (like nearly half I think), not community transmission.

The cumulative identified cases in Alameda County alone are at 0.1% of the population, and they're probably only 60% of the way through! And the case pickup rate is likely much worse, so the actual incidence is probably 0.5-1%. Basically all of this is through community transmission.

So it's like a 10x worse situation than down under. (For more context, it is about 500-1000x worse in NYC than in Australia.)

Different strokes for different folks. Pretty sure the authorities in California have a handle on what's gonna fly.

Australia did a really good job and crushed the virus early by massively testing and actually responding in a rational and timely way to the prospect of an economy-crushing pandemic. And perhaps there was some luck involved, too (I don't know). It's so important to act early, though.

By the same token, it's very important to not open up too early otherwise it's totally pointless.

 

[Norbert]

You're from Australia! Your entire pandemic infected 0.026% (measured cases) of your population. (And your case pickup rate was likely better than ours due to massive early testing, so probably your actual number of infections was less than 0.1% of the population.) And a huge proportion of your cases were travel-related (like nearly half I think), not community transmission.

The cumulative identified cases in Alameda County alone are at 0.1% of the population, and they're probably only 60% of the way through! And the case pickup rate is likely much worse, so the actual incidence is probably 0.5-1%. Basically all of this is through community transmission.

So it's like a 10x worse situation than down under. (For more context, it is about 500-1000x worse in NYC than in Australia.)

Different strokes for different folks. Pretty sure the authorities in California have a handle on what's gonna fly.

Australia did a really good job and crushed the virus early by massively testing and actually responding in a rational and timely way to the prospect of an economy-crushing pandemic. And perhaps there was some luck involved, too (I don't know). It's so important to act early, though.

By the same token, it's very important to not open up too early otherwise it's totally pointless.

It all points to an outbreak being much easier to handle at a low level.

 

[Papafox]

Hawaii Report:

Bad news: the number of new cases doubled from Monday to Tuesday and doubled again on Wednesday!

Good news: number of new cases in Hawaii climbed from 1 on Monday to 2 on Tuesday and 4 on Wednesday

Bad news: one reason the numbers are so low is that testing is still restricted. I have a 45ish year old friend who has come down with symptoms that suggest coronavirus, especially respiratory issues. When she checked in with a doctor via phone yesterday, she was told to self-isolate for 14 days (but not offered a chance at a COIVID-19 test). I told her that since she is experiencing some shortness of breath to contact another health provider and specifically mention the shortness of breath issue, specifically ask for a test, and mention her asthma, which is an underlying health issue. My conclusion: the official numbers we're seeing are artificially low because of situations like this where someone who may have the virus and really needs to know is not being tested. Hopefully we change that situation with this individual today.

Bad news: Because the published numbers are so low, and because the governor has decided to shelter in place for yet another month, residents are losing sight of need to socially distance and believe gornment is out of touch with reality at the moment. Lots of neighbor interactions now taking place on streets without masks

Good news: Rule in Honolulu requiring all business transactions be between seller and buyer who are both wearing masks has been well accepted and 100% of patrons in grocery and general merchandise stores now wearing masks and not much pushback on this rule

Bad news: Only a third of unemployment claims from early March have been handled by the state yet. This means the majority of those filing for unemployment during the crisis have yet to receive their first check. Further, with an inability to work, they are in poor position for weathering this storm.