Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sweden had 249 deaths in the past 7 days. That's the lowest since they ramped up at the start of April and down 2/3rds since their late-April peak. Makes a good case that you can get R below 1.0 via large gathering bans and high social compliance (e.g. self-isolating with symptoms).

Yep, we'll see how things go as they open back up. Looks like they've ramped up testing in preparation for more mobility. Sounds like they have some regrets.

Hopefully it goes better than it's going in AZ. (This is not just testing; PCR-only positivity has gone from 6%, to 9%, to 12% over the last three weeks.)

Seems like this is likely caused by the heat (and possibly reopening).

 

[FreshPrince]

You mean like the American Red Cross, who shows up at major disasters (like hurricanes) as well as things like single family home fires with food and housing assistance?

You mean that Red Cross:
Report: Red Cross Spent 25 Percent Of Haiti Donations On Internal Expenses

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is literally the least surprising thing that has happened so far in this pandemic. It was basically guaranteed. Hopefully their measures to prevent spread are robust, and everyone can stay well, and the cars can keep on moving out of the factory. Fortunately does not appear to be a large outbreak at this time. Guess we need to give it another week or so to see what happens to any sparks (sounds like there were perhaps none since these cases may have occurred prior to May 18th)...and of course there will eventually be continued introductions. Will be interesting to see how it evolves.

In Fremont, there would be about 0.6 workers per day entering the factory with a shiny new case of the 'rona.

If they were to open up next week, I would expect them to be able to go no more than about 2 weeks without having an outbreak (accounting for some risk reduction due to screening, etc.). Could relatively easily be less than a week.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/06/09/tesla-factory-coronavirus/

 

[jerry33]

You mean that Red Cross:
Report: Red Cross Spent 25 Percent Of Haiti Donations On Internal Expenses

I believe you are supposed to consider it a good result if the CEO or CFO didn't run off with all the funds as what has happened in several charities.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Exclusive: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies

You'd think reporters would have figured this "science" thing out by now!

Pleasantly surprised that this study was conducted by the CDC.

As expected, the reporting in the story was all screwed up (you have to read the story above to figure out how badly they got confused with the numbers - but you'll have to go to WayBack machine or something since they have rewritten the story in the last day - it said this yesterday: ""The serology test results appear to track closely with data from the Roosevelt in early April, which showed that 60 percent of the sailors who were testing positive for the virus itself - not antibodies - were in fact symptom-free." and now it says this instead (much more correct, does not confuse the 60% value) "The serology test results follow data from the Roosevelt in early April, which showed that 60 percent of the sailors who were testing positive for the virus itself - not antibodies - were in fact symptom-free."). The CDC report says "One fifth of infected participants reported no symptoms." This is a bit lower than I would have guessed, but also not surprising since they probably did a good job on expanding the list of possible symptoms for people to respond to (these surveys can be screwed up if the full list of possible symptoms is not presented to respondents, as the WHO said yesterday).

SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Serologic Responses from a Sample ...

Median age 30
382 participants spanning people previously infected, and not. Self-selecting sample.
61.5% (235) had previously tested positive
70% (267) provided a swab for testing.
62% (238) had swab indicate current or previous infection (PCR or ELISA Antibody positive)
59% (228) of participants had ELISA Antibodies (so 96% of the infected), and 60% (135) of those ELISA-positive individuals had neutralizing antibodies.
81.5% (194) of those infected had had symptoms. (284 participants total reported symptoms, so 90 of the participants had symptoms but no sign of virus.)

1) Antibodies are promising for at least short term immunity (60% of those with positive ELISA had good neutralizing antibodies at this snapshot in time).
2) Masks and other measures help!
3) Sampling detail: "During this time, approximately 1,000 service members were determined to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The United States Navy and CDC investigated this ongoing outbreak during April 20–24; 382 service members voluntarily completed questionnaires and provided serum specimens (a convenience sample comprising 27% of 1,417 service members staying at the base on Guam or on the ship). The 1,417 included persons who were previously infected, currently infected, or never infected."
4) Lack of taste and smell is a very important symptom - it is very predictive if you have that symptom. Fever, not as much. "Approximately one third of participants reported fever, myalgia, and chills and had higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection than did persons who reported cough and shortness of breath. Participants reporting anosmia (loss of sense of smell) or ageusia (loss of sense of taste) had 10 times the odds of having infection, compared with those who did not."
5) The 62% positive by PCR/AB should not be used to determine what % of the crew has coronavirus or coronavirus antibodies, due to selection bias.

Regarding transmission in the young: "A study of adolescents and young adults with mild COVID-19 illness in China found rapid propagation of chains of transmission by asymptomatic persons (6)"

@TheTalkingMule , perhaps you should consider this datapoint?

Huang L, Zhang X, Zhang X, et al. Rapid asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 during the incubation period demonstrating strong infectivity in a cluster of youngsters aged 16–23 years outside Wuhan and characteristics of young patients with COVID-19: a prospective contact-tracing study. J Infect 2020;80:e1–13. Rapid asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 during the incubation period demonstrating strong infectivity in a cluster of youngsters aged 16-23 years outside Wuhan and characteristics of young patients with COVID-19: A prospective contact-tracing study

 

[Causalien]

Sweden had 249 deaths in the past 7 days. That's the lowest since they ramped up at the start of April and down 2/3rds since their late-April peak. Makes a good case that you can get R below 1.0 via large gathering bans and high social compliance (e.g. self-isolating with symptoms).

The US isn't known for compliance, however, and has enthusiastically embraced large gatherings. So our experience may differ.

It wasn't getting passed around in the US in late January. At least that's what the CDC was saying. And back then we still generally believed them.

Now in hindsight, we are getting many evidence now that this thing started spreading in October. Which corroborated with my source's october claim.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Now in hindsight, we are getting many evidence now that this thing started spreading in October.

There is no such evidence so far. Source? I know there was a very poorly done imaging study reported today.

Spread that early doesn't really line up with the facts. Late November is the imputed start date based on epidemiological parameters. Of course the virus has been around in an animal for a very long time, so of course it's possible the jump to humans was slightly earlier and it simply didn't spread with R greater than 1 - but the index case would have been in November, most likely, from what I understand.

 

[Causalien]

There is no such evidence so far. Source? I know there was a very poorly done imaging study reported today.

Spread that early doesn't really line up with the facts. Late November is the imputed start date based on epidemiological parameters. Of course the virus has been around in an animal for a very long time, so of course it's possible the jump to humans was slightly earlier and it simply didn't spread with R greater than 1 - but the index case would have been in November, most likely, from what I understand.

Still not concrete. It was the satellite image on hospital parking lot utilization in China. At this point we can only say it is a really bad flu. And since China destroyed all evidences, not much we can do but speculate. I tend to perk up when coincidences appear. When and if a third coincidence shows up and say october. I will start considering it as fact.

My own criteria is just my own though. If you go by official methods, nothing will ever get proven and the origin of this virus is that it appears out of the thin air because we cannot give 100% confidence to any theory.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It was the satellite image on hospital parking lot utilization in China.

While OSINT is trendy, it isn't actually all that easy.

'"This is an illustrated guide on how not to do open source analysis," Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, who analyzed the MACE report for The Daily Beast, was quoted as saying.

"It is filled with apples-to-oranges comparisons, motivated reasoning, and a complete refusal to consider mundane explanations or place the data in any sort of context," he added.'

I'd be careful about adding this to your list of coincidences. Just because someone can make something up doesn't mean it's true.

If you go by official methods, nothing will ever get proven and the origin of this virus is that it appears out of the thin air because we cannot give 100% confidence to any theory.

That's just not true. I think there's a decent chance that eventually they'll figure out the likely animal reservoir for this virus and how it infected humans.

 

[rxlawdude]

At this point we can only say it is a really bad flu.

Are you kidding? I hope so.

 

[renim]

Are you kidding? I hope so.

A really bad flu means different things to different people.

Australia's result was because their public servants and government are sugar scared of a 'really bad flu'. Including 2019 case scenario trial runs of what to do if a really bad flu occurs.

Other countries presumably were not sugar scared of a really bad flu.

Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw06dlU8I3k4v8ctZWk3uVW0

 

[Causalien]

Are you kidding? I hope so.

LOL. oops.
I meant the evidence of something in October 2019. Could be Coronavirus, or just another bad flu that has nothing to do with Coronavirus because we have no concrete evidence.

 

[SVMike]

You mean that Red Cross:
Report: Red Cross Spent 25 Percent Of Haiti Donations On Internal Expenses

I'm not giving the Red Cross a pass on any bad behavior.
But to their credit most workers are unpaid volunteers

25% is probably less overhead than government, especially since most workers get zero pay, just a few dollars a day to cover some expenses.

 

[Sanny]

You mean that Red Cross:
Report: Red Cross Spent 25 Percent Of Haiti Donations On Internal Expenses

Just read tax forms of random non-profits and you will be surprised on how little actually goes for the cause. I read a couple and they all look like Carol Baskin to me now.

 

[FoverM]

Still not concrete. It was the satellite image on hospital parking lot utilization in China. At this point we can only say it is a really bad flu. And since China destroyed all evidences, not much we can do but speculate. I tend to perk up when coincidences appear. When and if a third coincidence shows up and say october. I will start considering it as fact.

My own criteria is just my own though. If you go by official methods, nothing will ever get proven and the origin of this virus is that it appears out of the thin air because we cannot give 100% confidence to any theory.

While I agree with the Chinese coverup argument ... I'd like to see a comparison with previous years of hospital parking lot usage before saying this is a smoking gun.

 

[FreshPrince]

While I agree with the Chinese coverup argument ... I'd like to see a comparison with previous years of hospital parking lot usage before saying this is a smoking gun.

I do not think it really matters as US actively tried not to know what is going on in Wuhan:

Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak

 

[FreshPrince]

I do not think it really matters as US actively tried not to know what is going on in Wuhan:

Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
Exclusive: U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak

Also, it was not hard to predict that COVID-19 will spread after Chinese New Year but US government pretended everything is ok and public officials I talked to (in February) were trying to assure me that I should worry about flu more. At that time CDC had not yet released guidelines for SARS-2-CoV protection for health-care workers.

 

[alloverx]

If there were enough masks, the CDC would have recommended masks from Day 1.

In an ideal world, there should be free N95 respirators given to those at risk (with usability instructions), starting with folks over 70 in bad health for whenever out in public or when someone visits them. Naturally nursing homes workers would be next in line.

Prediction: The WHO will keep changing the score on asymptomatic spread for months to come. Sometimes for science reasons, sometimes for politics.

 

[Causalien]

I have a very wild theory about WHO's flip flopping. That seemed too weird.

If you assume that they are just a paid mouth piece for CCP to parrot exactly what ccp said, nothing more nothing less then it makes sense.

CCP have no experience in propaganda to affect a free western world. They never had to change public opinion in a democracy before and till now. Always just paid for lobbyists.

They've always had their way with the Chinese populqtion. Whatever they decide to be the truth end up being the truth. Ppl were afraid of getting disappeared. CCP themselves had never known any other way.

Till the tried to change the history of covid19 in the western world. The flip flop you see are them trying to change history by outright saying the truth is something else. A classic ccp signature. It's not china flu, it's covid 19. It's not from a lab, but a market. It originated in usa not China. And the most recent one. There's little to no asymptomatic spread.

In china, ppl had to pretend to be dumb and that facts doesn't exist. What ccp said previously becomes something never that was never said the moment the new order contradicts it.

Until they meet the rest of the world. Where ppl get insulted by such blatant manipulation that is so outrageous it borderlines on insane. And tgese ppl actually remembers what you said before and calls your bullshit.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Sweden - no lockdown: 467 deaths per million
Australian & New Zealand - lockdown: 4 deaths per million