Coronavirus

[jerry33]

That's just plain dumb and irresponsible.

So are the anti-vaxers, but that doesn't stop them from harming the rest of us.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Some comments (similar to my prior comments) regarding what protesters should do after protesting:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1270109925557952512?s=20

As the thread says, in general all of these strategies are wise to employ any time you think you may have been exposed, protester or not. For example, anyone going to Vegas or going back to work in a place where there are any close contacts, or flying in a commercial airplane, should follow the same procedures, generally speaking.

Also worth emphasizing that a negative test result means fairly little due to sensitivity issues, so getting tested is a good strategy for confirming infection, but doesn't eliminate the need for continuing quarantining after potential exposure.

https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1270093309126438912

In other news there continues to be a lot of confusion about how common exactly is asymptomatic spread. One of these days they'll figure it out! Definitely there are many documented examples of spread prior to symptoms (not the same as asymptomatic), and it's likely a key driver of this pandemic so far, so I'm not sure how relevant the specifics are of the latest WHO "guidance" regarding asymptomatic spread. CNBC of course totally bungled the takeaway with a completely false headline which was apparently completely unrelated to what the WHO was talking about.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270105417838784512

 

[Causalien]

Why were you flying during a pandemic?

Context is important.

It was before it was declared a pandemic and before ppl knew how serious it is on Jan 28th. Before the 14 day quarantine order was even established (we only had a slight suspicion that there's a possibility of a 14 day asymptomatic transmission phase). Whilst nobody else have died beside the Chinese, nobody in asia trusted the Chinese, everyone wore protection. The route I was flying was considered clean because there were supposed to be no Chinese passengers. And the only Chinese passenger that we needed to watch out for were those from Wuhan. AND, the most important thing, the Virus was "NOT AIRBORNE" according to all the propaganda that was pushed out in full force by all the media.

Which speaks volumes about how much mistrust there is towards China in Asia to react such a way. Especially right after how they deliberately exported the swine flu to other asian countries (never proven, but there's a consistent effort discovered by numerous parties, just like you see videos of some bleeding heart CCP members in other countries spitting on groceries).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Exclusive: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies

 

[madodel]

To give an example of my point, Im reading comments by parents and some teachers online in my neighborhood and in other states wanting to open up schools again for in-person learning in the Fall. And, these parents and teachers believe having the requirements of wearing masks and keeping space between desks are too restrictive. So, they’re proposing to just let schools resume as normal and whoever doesn’t want to assume any risk can stay home and do distance learning.

How about giving every student a peanut butter sandwich as well? I take it these folks love to gamble.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Exclusive: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies

You'd think reporters would have figured this "science" thing out by now!

"A U.S. Navy investigation into the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier has found that about 60 percent of sailors tested had antibodies for the virus,"

"The Roosevelt has about 4,800 personnel on the ship."

"More than 1,100 aboard tested positive for the virus as of April, less than 25 percent of the crew."

Ok. In general I'd expect a higher percentage of asymptomatics in a young population (as has been outlined here previously). But more than half asymptomatic...not so sure about that. 2880 with 1100 symptomatic? So 62% asymptomatic...I'm not so sure.

"The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that about 400 volunteers participated in the serology tests, lower than the 1,000 volunteers that were sought, but enough to provide statistically relevant data about how the virus spread aboard one of world’s largest warships."

I suspect a selection bias here. You can't really ask for volunteers in a situation like this. And were none of the people tested previously identified as PCR positive? (I assume they didn't do antibody testing for people who were PCR positive - but maybe they did, just to make sure they developed antibodies?) If they did test people previously positive for PCR, what % of the people tested for antibodies were previously positive by PCR?

"The serology test results appear to track closely with data from the Roosevelt in early April, which showed that 60 percent of the sailors who were testing positive for the virus itself - not antibodies - were in fact symptom-free."

Umm...that's not the same thing at all. Just because both numbers are 60% does not mean that there is any relationship! One number indicates (in a literal reading assuming a random sample) that 60% of the crew got the virus. The other number indicates that 60% of those who got the virus were asymptomatic. The 62% number does align roughly with the 60% number though...but it's hard to know what to make of the numbers without knowing whether they tested people who were previously positive by PCR.

I guess we'll find out more in the full release which may come tomorrow. This seems pretty jumbled and confusing about what was actually done - might make more sense in a full presentation.

That being said, as I said, I do expect a pretty high percentage of asymptomatics in a young population. (Would be really interesting if they did CT scans of those sailors as well, like they did on the Diamond Princess, to see how many of them had lung abnormalities - was a very high % on the Diamond Princess).

 

[renim]

Context is important.

It was before it was declared a pandemic and before ppl knew how serious it is on Jan 28th. Before the 14 day quarantine order was even established (we only had a slight suspicion that there's a possibility of a 14 day asymptomatic transmission phase).....Which speaks volumes about how much mistrust there is towards China in Asia to react such a way....

Jan 27th China travel ban to last for months

I'm linked to a small town in Qld that derives perhaps 90% of its private income from Chinese tour groups. (Its a single business tourist town) while that is an extreme example, the message was loud and clear to the australian tourism sector, the sugar already hit the fan.

From 31 January, foreign nationals returning from China were required to have spent a fortnight in a third country before being allowed into Australia.

This started some media frenzy, one of the options was an offshore quarantine dentention centre with parallels to guantanamo bay.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It will settle at 1.5 - 2k per week until October.

That's optimistic. We currently have ~1.5k deaths per week in states with flat or rising death rates and another ~1k/week in states that saw sudden dips recently which may or may not represent an actual trend.

The remarkable decline in national deaths is mostly from the hard-hit NYC metro area with help from the rest of the Philly-Boston corridor and a few hotspots like Detroit and New Orleans. Those areas will decline a bit more, but not to zero. Hospitalizations are a good indicator, but reporting varies widely from state to state.

Unclear picture (they mix antibody and PCR positive test results apparently?), but might be ok due to no hospitalization issues yet: TX

TX reports PCR and antibody tests separately.

Most impressive thing I heard today was NY positivity at 1.2%. NYC positivity declined from 59% in April to 2% now.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Schools should be absolutely fine to reopen with no mitigation efforts, even with a moderate 2nd wave. No one over 65 allowed. No one with even remotely compromised health, students included.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

TX reports PCR and antibody tests separately.

Yes. The Tableau I was looking at I thought had a little note about mixing in TX, but I went back and looked and I don't see it anymore. So perhaps I mixed it up with another state.

In any case, the hospitalization trend isn't what you'd like to see in Texas, ideally. Certainly trending upwards. We'll see.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Schools should be absolutely fine to reopen with no mitigation efforts, even with a moderate 2nd wave. No one over 65 allowed. No one with even remotely compromised health, students included.

I'm not sure how you think that's going to work? This has been discussed before. What about the student's parents? What about students with vulnerable family members who live in the home?

I prefer the strategy of eliminating the virus by fall. Eminently doable of course.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wash your hands. Test, trace, isolate. Same as we should have done in February. Kids don't seem to be able to transmit, even on the rare occasion they're infected.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Kids don't seem to be able to transmit, even on the rare occasion they're infected.

Source? My understanding is that it is uncommon, but not unheard of, based on a study previously posted here. I'd be concerned about transmission in a home setting, as compared to a school setting.

Seems easier and safer for everyone to get rid of the virus like any sane country would do - will make it much safer. Fortunately it appears possible that we're on that glide path, but it may be a rough approach.

 

[Dr. J]

TX reports PCR and antibody tests separately.

I remember Gov. Abbott saying the rising case numbers were due to increased testing. I haven't heard him say that lately.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I remember Gov. Abbott saying the rising case numbers were due to increased testing. I haven't heard him say that lately.

View attachment 549435

Yeah it's not looking ideal. Oh well. No going back now!

I should have included VA on my list above. They're not looking that great, either. Just in terms of positivity. Their trends aren't terrible (hospitalizations are generally going downwards).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Source? My understanding is that it is uncommon, but not unheard of, based on a study previously posted here. I'd be concerned about transmission in a home setting, as compared to a school setting.

Seems easier and safer for everyone to get rid of the virus like any sane country would do - will make it much safer. Fortunately it appears possible that we're on that glide path, but it may be a rough approach.

How? You shut down in the fall and there will be literally blood in the streets. We are forced to lean on the resilience of youth and the lessons we learned in wave 1.

If there's a vaccine ready that just needs manufacture and distribution.....go ahead and delay opening a bit. Other than that I see no real choice or much incremental danger.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How? You shut down in the fall and there will be literally blood in the streets. We are forced to lean on the resilience of youth and the lessons we learned in wave 1.

If there's a vaccine ready that just needs manufacture and distribution.....go ahead and delay opening a bit. Other than that I see no real choice or much incremental danger.

No, I'm saying eliminate the virus (effectively), and carry on as normal. Seems fine. Plenty of time to do it. If we need to do 3 million (or more) tests a day to make it happen, so be it.

We're not forced to lean on anything any more than we are forced to accept continued large numbers of fatalities until a vaccine is developed.

It's not like we can't effectively eliminate the virus without a vaccine, right?

Obviously the kids need to go back to school, but that will happen with minimal risk. There won't be any disease circulating, assuming things are done properly in June, July, and August.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We are incapable of tying our shoes right now, let alone properly eliminating a coronavirus.

 

[Causalien]

Jan 27th China travel ban to last for months

I'm linked to a small town in Qld that derives perhaps 90% of its private income from Chinese tour groups. (Its a single business tourist town) while that is an extreme example, the message was loud and clear to the australian tourism sector, the sugar already hit the fan.

From 31 January, foreign nationals returning from China were required to have spent a fortnight in a third country before being allowed into Australia.

This started some media frenzy, one of the options was an offshore quarantine dentention centre with parallels to guantanamo bay.

Yep, it was a very weird time. On the other hand, you get official sources say that it's not a pandemic and not airborn. Then ppl saying it's racist and to hug a Chinese.

I think a lot of traveller were thinking about ok china must've locked down the airport already since they locked down wuhan. Cause that's the logical thing to do right? Since doctors were saying it is just a flu and nobody else outside China have died. (at least the news haven't travelled all over yet) ppl were saying that they were dying in China because they are chain smokers and their air pollution is bad. Only old ppl died. And if you are flying from a country with no cases then it should be fine. It's just a bad case of pulmonia. Forgot the best one. It only targets the Chinese, it'll never happen in our country, our genes are superior. The fact that asymptomatic spread was possible was strongly denied by all world leaders and scientists. It was kind of like a rumour and a conspiracy theory as well. So proper temperature screening as well as denying boarding from people with flu like symptoms should be enough.

Hindsight is beautiful. We now know it's been spreading since much earlier and by January, the Italians and germans were already seeding other countries with cases and the korean cultists has been spreading it all over as well. And Trump's ban on Chinese flight were seen more as a political move than a real medical one. It was a time where every week, the situation changed completely.

Anyway these are the reason I've heard that ppl use from different side to justify their action of travelling and not wearing masks.

Yet asia, full mask, non asia, no mask.

 

[alloverx]

Asymptomatic spread rate is 6% max, very low.

"Although health officials in countries including Britain, the U.S. and elsewhere have warned that COVID-19 is spreading from people without symptoms, WHO has maintained that this type of spread is not a driver of the pandemic and is probably accounts for about 6% of spread, at most. Numerous studies have suggested that the virus is spreading from people without symptoms, but many of those are either anecdotal reports or based on modeling."