CPO MS: Planning for delayed delivery of M3

[omar10r1]

Variation on a topic that has been discussed here before (read: getting impatient):

Come mid-2017, any thoughts on pricing estimates for basic 2014 CPO S60's with AP? Conceivably we'll see some as leases run out, right?

I'm considering getting one next year with 20-25k down to hold me over until M3 delivery, especially if M3 production is delayed (reserved 8/6 so I'm probably in the back of the line and I'm not in a position to heavily option it to move up the queue significantly).

My thought: 20-25k + ~2 years of payments on MS probably ensures I won't have negative equity and can trade-in for a similar amount (20-25k?) on a nice, decent M3 come delivery in 2019-2020 (pessimistic estimate). Yes, it's ~2 more years of payments than if I just wait, but that gives me 2 more years of Tesla driving...possibly worth it!!

Is my shoddy neophyte estimate way off?

Related thought, do you still move up in the M3 queue if you buy a CPO? Even if I did, I might hold onto the S until I was sure I wasn't upside-down on it for trade-in. I'm a full-time drummer, so I'll appreciate the extra room anyway.

 

[jonnyg]

Might be safer to lease a new Model S for 2 years. At least you would know exactly all the financials, whereas buying CPO and selling it in a year or two, who knows what it will be worth?

Wouldn't think the AP v1 cars will drop as much as the non-AP cars did once AP came out, but once AP v2 is out then AP v1 cars certainly will take a hit.

 

[omar10r1]

Good point, my thought is on the heels of Elon's recent post about the depreciation value of Tesla's. I need to find it again....perhaps the depreciation of AP1 vs. AP2 is comparable to non-AP 2013's right now?

Two things also, the 2-year lease program ended this past Monday Also, you don't move up the M3 queue for leasing either right? Not that that's a huge factor for me if I'll be in an MS anyway I suppose...

 

[SageBrush]

When all is said and done, holding a new Model S two years costs about $20,000.
That is a lot of money to not plow into your eventual long-term Tesla, so unless you are hell bent on the Model 3 instead of the S (like me,) why not just buy the Model S ?

 

[EinSV]

Electrek posted an article with a nice graph of depreciation versus miles for Model S. I copied it below (Model S is the green line at the top)..

Tesla Model S retains its value better than gas-powered cars in its segment, losing only 28% after 50k miles

The chart may be useful in comparing depreciation from a new versus used Model S, and also guesstimating the price of a used Model S with the features you want. I had always believed that new cars depreciate faster than used cars but based on the chart that effect hasn't been very strong bordering on nonexistent with Model S, until you hit about 70K miles when depreciation starts tailing off.

To respond to your question, If the chart holds in the future it looks like if you drive 20K miles in two years on a new car, the price should depreciate about 12 percent or so. If you drive more than that the car will depreciate more obviously. If the same Model S depreciation rates continue to hold, you may actually end up with more equity in your car at the end of two years of payments than when you started.

Just one data point, but you may find it useful.

 

[SD Diver]

When all is said and done, holding a new Model S two years costs about $20,000.
That is a lot of money to not plow into your eventual long-term Tesla, so unless you are hell bent on the Model 3 instead of the S (like me,) why not just buy the Model S ?

Stood in line to reserve on day 1. Took delivery of a CPO Sept 2013 P85+ on 6/4, thinking that it would hold me over. I've it! So, now we'll get the M3 for my wife to replace Focus EV. Her build would be much closer to the base price than mine would have been. The P8+? I'll keep it until the doors fall off...

 

[Az_Rael]

I don't know how much I believe the depreciation article. They used list prices instead of sold prices according to their site.

Here is a chart for what 2014 Tesla CPO S85s have been doing since the CPO program opened. You can see that in May 2015, the cars were averaging ~$75K. In Sept 2016, they are averaging $59K. So that's $16K or 21% less over the 16 months.



And here is what 2014 S60 AP cars have been doing (only a few of those, tho)

 

[Garlan Garner]

When all is said and done, holding a new Model S two years costs about $20,000.
That is a lot of money to not plow into your eventual long-term Tesla, so unless you are hell bent on the Model 3 instead of the S (like me,) why not just buy the Model S ?

That is indeed a lot of money, however would you say that you will have had $20K worth of fun and learning by the time the M3 comes out?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Its a shame that the public status quo for Tesia are "delays" and being late.