-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Current Delivery Times
- Thread starter sloth
- Start date
bap1803691
Member
Ive been lurking for a while and I appreciate this thread to know everyone is in the same boat with September date! It has to imply some adjustments on their end which could mean good news for some people! I order 6/1 in WI. MY LR Black on black, 19in, 5 seat, no tow, standard autopilot. It said 8/2-8/22 for a week, then 8/1-8/21 last week (woohoo) and no September like everyone else! No rush for me but still on the edge of my seat!
Stephan Bogan
Member
One possibility (if it is not truly, all orders move into Q3) ...
In the manufacturing / supply chain world, there is the process of an ERP/MRP Regeneration. Regardless of the system (SAP, WarpDrive, Oracle MFG, whatever) under the hood will be a style of Manufacturing Resource Planning.
Basically the goal of these systems / logic is to align the supply of materials / parts / sub systems etc with output demand and scheduling of production. The goal is to maximize efficiency, maximize utilization and realization of labour / machining / production resources and well ... profits and delivery times.
Normally these plans are run at some repeating period (real time, nightly, weekly, monthly) in what's called a net change mode. Net change basically keeps revising the plan using previous inputs and any changes. This usually preserves a history of the plan.
Regen mode wipes the slate clean. Typical scenarios for a Regen are when errors in the data are piling up and affecting the production schedules, disruption of major critical supply chain(s) and major disruption to production capacities (say a critical process is down, such as a vital machine) or you run a style of production that is very one off (such as building very complex things) or very long lead time. Think airplanes, submarines, ships or nuclear plants etc
In a normal company, this mass move of dates for everyone would be a signal that a regen was done. But this is Tesla, so maybe someone spilled coffee in the data center or they are tacitly acknowledging everyone gets deliveries in Q3.
In the manufacturing / supply chain world, there is the process of an ERP/MRP Regeneration. Regardless of the system (SAP, WarpDrive, Oracle MFG, whatever) under the hood will be a style of Manufacturing Resource Planning.
Basically the goal of these systems / logic is to align the supply of materials / parts / sub systems etc with output demand and scheduling of production. The goal is to maximize efficiency, maximize utilization and realization of labour / machining / production resources and well ... profits and delivery times.
Normally these plans are run at some repeating period (real time, nightly, weekly, monthly) in what's called a net change mode. Net change basically keeps revising the plan using previous inputs and any changes. This usually preserves a history of the plan.
Regen mode wipes the slate clean. Typical scenarios for a Regen are when errors in the data are piling up and affecting the production schedules, disruption of major critical supply chain(s) and major disruption to production capacities (say a critical process is down, such as a vital machine) or you run a style of production that is very one off (such as building very complex things) or very long lead time. Think airplanes, submarines, ships or nuclear plants etc
In a normal company, this mass move of dates for everyone would be a signal that a regen was done. But this is Tesla, so maybe someone spilled coffee in the data center or they are tacitly acknowledging everyone gets deliveries in Q3.
Vosty3
Member
Can we take a moment of silence for the thousands of dollars worth of accessories stacked in our home’s collecting dust waiting to fulfill there purpose in life?
I think this is the most accurate way of analyzing the situations from outside. We all should definitely revisit the page for corrections over the weekend. Supply chain if issue...then basically people who order in June/July may not see their cars until end of the year and demand will be through the roof to a point where we will see the QC issues cropping up again
ajs847
Member
Feels like this would jinx my order.... I can wait to order stuff when i finally get it.
eclipsefire
Member
That would make sense. Especially since if you look in the code, the "Estimated delivery: September" bit is an override and doesn't follow their normal UI code. I'd imagine they do that as a place holder when their system can't actually produce a date.
I'm curious as to when the customer gets a delivery date relative to the car leaving the factory. I saw several car carriers full of Model 3s and Ys on the freeway yesterday. Do those customers already have delivery dates, or do they not get them until the cars arrive at the delivery centers?
Mine did too! It has been late July/early August forever with one week of June 24-30 thrown in to get me excited. Then back to July/August and now September!Darn. My 5/20 LR Mt. Kisco order just flipped to September this morning from late July/early August where it's been for the past couple weeks.
Stephan Bogan
Member
I'm just speculating, but having worked ages in manufacturing, logistics and supply chain world it does make some sense from what I can see. But again speculation.
One tendency in this world is to be overly optimistic about your scheduling and supply chains. You tend to want to preserve your master schedules and plans as long as possible and avoid a major input change to them, esp if you use some style of net change. You wait as long as possible to 'give in' and adjust. It's just natural human nature and tendency.
No mater what style you use, Classic MRP, Demand Flow, Single flow, whatever - major changes to inputs are an incredible amount of effort and disruption. I wish I had more visibility into how the planning engine and scheduling engine of Tesla in house ERP works so I can only guess at what they do. But production theory is production theory so ...
Vosty3
Member
True and who knows if we get delayed too much we might end up with the new interior/headlight refresh although I highly doubt that. Most of the accessories out shouldn’t be impacted.
gisseLdesire
Member
Joining the slipped to September crew. Tomorrow makes week 3 of waiting. hoping this is alll a fluke for all of us and we get that magical blue button soon. I keep telling myself these dates mean nothing, yet I still find myself freaking out when they change lol.
Similar threads
