Deer and autopilot

[Saghost]

I've considered this too, do you think it's possible they might find shortcomings in AP2 hardware and adjust before the Model 3 comes out?

Lots of things are possible. However, they've committed to always having new technology in the X/S first, and they won't really have much fleet experience before they have to lock the initial production run of 3 hardware - if they haven't already had to do that.

My bet is the 3 will have the same AP hardware the S/X have today for at least the first several months of production. I think the next generation of hardware is at least a year out, and quite possibly 2 or 3.

What I'm really not sure about is how the eAP/FSDC rollout is going to go, and whether they'll be able to do "it drives itself, but you have to pay attention and be ready to intercede and legally responsible" in a year or so with AP2 hardware while they try to convince regulators.

AP is already a figurative (and potentially literal) lifesaver on long road trips, but the idea of being able to relax and read or try to sleep while the car does everything is tempting (I'm not foolish enough to try that with an AP1 car even on empty freeways.)

 

[Reeler]

I've considered this too, do you think it's possible they might find shortcomings in AP2 hardware and adjust before the Model 3 comes out?

My prediction is that we will be at AP4.0 before the regulators allow full L5. Probably, 5-10 years out.

 

[Topher]

My prediction is that we will be at AP4.0 before the regulators allow full L5. Probably, 5-10 years out.

There is a large time gap (I suspect) between functional L5, and legally allowed to sit in the back seat L5. Until I become disabled, I don't care about that gap. I am content to sit in the driver's seat and pay attention (that's what I do as a passenger most of the time anyway).

Thank you kindly.

 

[JeffK]

My prediction is that we will be at AP4.0 before the regulators allow full L5. Probably, 5-10 years out.

Always love your optimism @Reeler
Here's the deal though, all the hardware exists today, they simply need to find the optimal combination which allows self driving at a reasonable cost.
Regulators will allow L5 faster than you think as they are also the same ones pushing the technology. It isn't simply gimmick feature being pushed by manufacturers. It's a concerted effort to save lives as quickly as possible. It's so important that regulators are changing the way things are normally done just to get it pushed through.

Future sensors might have improved range, sensitivity, processing power, allow for additional safety features ,etc, but for now, L5 should be capable without all those. Even if they totally ignore deer and just hit them anyway, it's still L5, even if it's less safe than desired. Now we know Tesla wants to show a good safety record, so they will likely address it at some point.

If there's an unforeseen shortcoming with AP2 hardware making it dangerous in some certain common scenario then they might adjust immediately and even consider a recall/retrofit if they deem it serious enough. If such a thing happens then I'm hoping it happens before the first Model 3s come off the line. The software is adjustable, I'm not worried about that.

There is a large time gap (I suspect) between functional L5, and legally allowed to sit in the back seat L5.

I also think this is the most realistic scenario. I believe features will be enabled over time similar to EAP with the same requirements that you have to touch the wheel every so often until approval is finally given.

 

[Drone Flyer]

does anyone know what a reasonable expectation is for deer avoidance? I know they are not going to guarantee this but what's a reasonable expectation? We had another deer strike today. It seems to be happening much more frequently and safety would be my main reason for stretching and buying a 3.

Hope the deer wasn't hurt.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Even if it detects deer some deer strikes are unavoidable. That said, you're less likely to get hurt in something built like a tank.

At the end of the day insurance can pay for your car but it can't bring you back to life.

Training AP2 to recognize large animals is trivial and it'll have the hardware it needs already. Make no mistake though... you can never make is deer proof.

As they say, nothing runs like a deer!

 

[JeffK]

As they say, nothing runs like a deer!

You know they created that slogan to advertise John Deere snowmobiles... You'd have to change it to nothing runs like Polaris?? haha.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Full autonomy is still years away I'm afraid.
What's wrong with actually driving these cars with a little help from driver assistance?
Why anyone would get a car like this and just sit in it is beyond me. These cars were meant to be driven.
I'm very happy with AP 1 as it is as a supplement to driving. It's all it really needs to be with these cars.

 

[Red Sage]

Since AP is not equipped to handle sign or stoplight controlled intersections...

Uhmmm... Signal light? This video shows a Model X handling at least 10 of those situations just fine. Left turns and right turns. Signal lights and stop signs. At least one construction area. Though perhaps not currently available to the public, I'm sure it will be... SOON. And maybe not bicycles, but the car was at one point very cautious about pedestrians walking alongside of the road where there was no curb or sidewalk.

 

[Red Sage]

This is still a variation of the trolley problem and is plagued by a human sense of morals and ethics making the question unanswerable.

Yes. Typically, you can only go so far with 'IF, WHEN, AND, OR, ELSE, WHILE' sets of decision making.

 

[JeffK]

Full autonomy is still years away I'm afraid.
What's wrong with actually driving these cars with a little help from driver assistance?
Why anyone would get a car like this and just sit in it is beyond me. These cars were meant to be driven.
I'm very happy with AP 1 as it is as a supplement to driving. It's all it really needs to be with these cars.

It probably depends a lot on age and where/how you get to work.

For me, each day is a 40-70 minute drive into and out of the city, this often involved rush hour traffic and at times when I'm tired, having just woke up or after a long day of work. It's not a fun drive. AP1 would have worked fine on the freeway/interstate portion of my drive but half the drive is on winding two lane roads with traffic, deer, ice/snow, and the occasional bicyclist. AP2 full self driving would be the only thing capable of handling this properly. The first part of my drive is very similar to the video above that @Red Sage posted which is why I find that video incredibly promising.

Don't get me wrong, on the weekend with a twisty road and no traffic it'd be really enjoyable manually driving in a quick car.

 

[JeffK]

Yes. Typically, you can only go so far with 'IF, WHEN, AND, OR, ELSE, WHILE' sets of decision making.

I guess everything else is illogical

 

[Red Sage]

Always love your optimism @Reeler
Here's the deal though, all the hardware exists today, they simply need to find the optimal combination which allows self driving at a reasonable cost.
Regulators will allow L5 faster than you think as they are also the same ones pushing the technology. It isn't simply gimmick feature being pushed by manufacturers. It's a concerted effort to save lives as quickly as possible. It's so important that regulators are changing the way things are normally done just to get it pushed through.

Indeed. I think this interview covers the whole thing pretty well:

The US Secretary of Transportation on a driverless America | Verge 2021

I also believe that once insurance companies are convinced of improved safety, the Autonomous Driving systems will become as desirable and ubiquitous as SRS Airbags and Anti-lock Braking Systems.

 

[Reeler]

If there's an unforeseen shortcoming with AP2 hardware making it dangerous in some certain common scenario then they might adjust immediately and even consider a recall/retrofit if they deem it serious enough. If such a thing happens then I'm hoping it happens before the first Model 3s come off the line. The software is adjustable, I'm not worried about that.

I don't want to go too far off topic on this thread, but don't expect Tesla to recall/retrofit anything. Tesla has a way of implying/promising/marketing a feature and then quietly making it disappear if it cannot be done with software upgrades. Some examples include, backseat HVAC control with app, WiFi hotspot capability, traffic light detection, blind spot warning, etc.

I want to believe that AP 2.0 will do L5 and have M3s on order that will have the sensors, but I will not buy into Tesla's silicon snake oil on this one. That said, if they got it working with regulatory approval in Colorado, I would place an order for a new Model S within seconds of that happening.

 

[Saghost]

That said, if they got it working with regulatory approval in Colorado, I would place an order for a new Model S within seconds of that happening.

That's more or less my game plan at the moment - wait for FSDC to actually show up, and let Tesla keep improving the cars and adding new features. I'll re-evaluate as soon as they have it actually working/approved, and likely upgrade then (though I'm really happy with a bunch of discontinued aspects of my X that I'd hate to lose. Maybe they'll come up with something better.)

 

[JeffK]

Some examples include, backseat HVAC control with app, WiFi hotspot capability, traffic light detection, blind spot warning, etc.

Not sure what you're referring too. I can point to videos of working blind spot detection, I can point to an app that controls Tesla HVAC from the backseat or anywhere for that matter, the wifi hotspot hardware (Qualcomm Atheros QCA6234 ) was introduced a few months ago in the vehicles I've not read a single promise from Tesla about it besides their filing with the FCC.

I've not read any traffic light detection promises from Tesla regarding AP1, I don't normally find traffic lights on freeways (once on them). The AP 2 hardware from the self driving videos clearly is capable of traffic light detection.

 

[Drone Flyer]

My prediction is that we will be at AP4.0 before the regulators allow full L5. Probably, 5-10 years out.

I agree! I think those of us hoping to use full autonomy with AP 2 are dreaming!

 

[mspohr]

Why is the driver always more important ?

I certainly do not feel that way just because I am the driver.

This deer issue is actually the reason I am probably going to delay my M3 purchase. I want the AP to help me avoid deer collisions. EM has recently said that he thought a road-side animal the size of a moose would be avoided by AP but he had doubts about deer. Since I cannot know if Gen1 AP hardware will not require more sophistication for deer, I am in a holding pattern.

It's hard to avoid deer. If they're standing in the middle of the road, it's easy but the usual situation is that they panic and jump out in front of the car from far off the roadside. Humans have a hard time with this, I imagine the car would do worse.
Recently went to Pennsylvania and there were dead deer all over the roads.

 

[Saghost]

It's hard to avoid deer. If they're standing in the middle of the road, it's easy but the usual situation is that they panic and jump out in front of the car from far off the roadside. Humans have a hard time with this, I imagine the car would do worse.
Recently went to Pennsylvania and there were dead deer all over the roads.

With the right sensors, the car should be able to see the deer from further away and possibly anticipate their reactions. AP2 doesn't have the sensors to do that IMHO.

 

[S'toon]

It's hard to avoid deer. If they're standing in the middle of the road, it's easy but the usual situation is that they panic and jump out in front of the car from far off the roadside. Humans have a hard time with this, I imagine the car would do worse.
Recently went to Pennsylvania and there were dead deer all over the roads.

And then there's the moose licking salt off of cars up here.
Car-licking moose prompts warning in southern Alberta

Several years ago a deer scared the heck out of me as I was driving at night on the outskirts of Regina.