Let me put it this way: if delaying initial deliveries to address early quality issues -- of a new car design from a new factory -- results in a shareholder lawsuit, it will simply prove how utterly irrational the market seems to have become. If you are a shareholder, you should care that the cars are delivered at highest quality, both for first impression in the marketplace, and to reduce ongoing expenses to fix issues. If my delivery slips to December or January, but the result is a materially better car, so be it. (I know some folks have tax planning problems if the car slips out of this year, but that doesn't affect my personal situation.)
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Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
I'm not trying to be alarmist. Zythryn's communication with Tesla would indicate a Sig Special (180) getting his car October 15. That would mean a Tesla would not get all it's Sigs done until November (there are over 800 to do after his). Unless the factory can produce insane numbers of cars in December, this makes 5000 cars near impossible. Plus, you have Tesla allegedly knowing that everyone's pre-MVPA is off by probably two months, not one, and yet they're contacting no one to tell them this? And why would Sig Special 183 (Nigel) have gotten September on his pre-MVPA and SS 180 get August 15th? Would he really have gotten such a specific date two weeks before the guy three cars behind him?
The whole thing sounds weird. A quiet period doesn't require the company not to inform customers of a two month delay in delivery as per their paperwork. I'm not saying that the stock will take a big fall and lawsuits will results but that it's just cpvery basic corporate practice that if they're that far behind the schedule that they've already told over 1000 customers per their paperwork, they should have contacted them to tell them.
My guess is the Zytheryn got some very bad information or is massively confused (best case scenario) or is trying to sow seeds of discontent for reasons beyond my comprehension. Either way, I don't think that Sig Special 180 is scheduled on October 15th for delivery, and I think, until I hear otherwise, everyone's pre-MVPA date is valid until we hear otherwise, and Tesla will let everyone know if the month changes as soon as they are certain of the delay.
The whole thing sounds weird. A quiet period doesn't require the company not to inform customers of a two month delay in delivery as per their paperwork. I'm not saying that the stock will take a big fall and lawsuits will results but that it's just cpvery basic corporate practice that if they're that far behind the schedule that they've already told over 1000 customers per their paperwork, they should have contacted them to tell them.
My guess is the Zytheryn got some very bad information or is massively confused (best case scenario) or is trying to sow seeds of discontent for reasons beyond my comprehension. Either way, I don't think that Sig Special 180 is scheduled on October 15th for delivery, and I think, until I hear otherwise, everyone's pre-MVPA date is valid until we hear otherwise, and Tesla will let everyone know if the month changes as soon as they are certain of the delay.
dflye
S Sig Perf 414, VIN 814
Being the laggard that I am (and also wanting to see the exterior / interior colors in person before finalizing my order) I pushed the 30 day window to the limit.
After emailing Tesla regarding whether I'd slipped my position in line (as I was given an October delivery estimate, while many other Sig reservation holders with higher numbers were indicating they had a September delivery estimate)
Which implies the ramp-up curve isn't exactly well-defined at this point it time; the only known factor is the endpoint of ~5k at the end of the year.
After emailing Tesla regarding whether I'd slipped my position in line (as I was given an October delivery estimate, while many other Sig reservation holders with higher numbers were indicating they had a September delivery estimate)
Which implies the ramp-up curve isn't exactly well-defined at this point it time; the only known factor is the endpoint of ~5k at the end of the year.
That 5k number is the one I am counting on, thanks
I also have no problem with a delay of a couple of months if that is indeed happening. And I do suspect I have bad information as everyone else is getting different info.
As to the level of ramp up, I think it would still be possible, although tough, even if the Oct 15 delivery estimate holds true. For me to get the car the, I could see it finishing production, QC, etc Oct 1st. If they have ramped up to 80 vehicles as of October 1, that would give them about 63 working days, or 5040 cars.
It is also possible I, or the delivery specialist I spoke with misunderstood something. Which is why I have asked for clarification. I also recommended that Tesla post something, here or at their own site as it would settle things down nicely, get some answers out there, and probably lower their call volume
As for shareholders, I don't think 3rd quarter production numbers will cause much discontent, year estimates may cause some more heartburn (which I would view as a buying opportunity).
I also have no problem with a delay of a couple of months if that is indeed happening. And I do suspect I have bad information as everyone else is getting different info.
As to the level of ramp up, I think it would still be possible, although tough, even if the Oct 15 delivery estimate holds true. For me to get the car the, I could see it finishing production, QC, etc Oct 1st. If they have ramped up to 80 vehicles as of October 1, that would give them about 63 working days, or 5040 cars.
It is also possible I, or the delivery specialist I spoke with misunderstood something. Which is why I have asked for clarification. I also recommended that Tesla post something, here or at their own site as it would settle things down nicely, get some answers out there, and probably lower their call volume
As for shareholders, I don't think 3rd quarter production numbers will cause much discontent, year estimates may cause some more heartburn (which I would view as a buying opportunity
).I agree a lawsuit will be irrational. However, a beating in the stock price (due to sell pressure) would certainly be possible and even rational among those focused on the short term (which many "investors" are). The issue is that while quality over date is desired, the assumption of the 5000 target was already that of 5000 'quality' products. If its taking longer for them to reach that, there's going to be a reaction. Perhaps it is a buying opportunity for those of us who are long on Tesla (as investors and EV enthusiasts). But there will be downward pressure on the stock for sure.
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
The other possibility is that for Tesla, "production" means that the cars are built, but that they only deliver 1000-2000 this year. As noted elsewhere, they've got plenty of room in Fremont to store as many finished cars as they need to, and the focus on "production" versus "delivery" could be stark. Delivery of Sig Special 180 in mid-October would make delivery of even 3000 cars in 2012 nearly impossible given the delivery experience that Tesla intends to provide (hours with each customer at their delivery location of choice).
However, Tesla could deliver 1000-2000 cars this year, "produce" the rest and have them all sitting in Fremont for the final checks that they are doing, and say they met their production expectations. Again, this seems a little far fetched, but is another possibility. The newer things we're hearing on "delayed" production and slow ramp up make this a somewhat less remote possibility than I would have otherwise thought.
However, Tesla could deliver 1000-2000 cars this year, "produce" the rest and have them all sitting in Fremont for the final checks that they are doing, and say they met their production expectations. Again, this seems a little far fetched, but is another possibility. The newer things we're hearing on "delayed" production and slow ramp up make this a somewhat less remote possibility than I would have otherwise thought.
Steph
Member
My guess is, and it's just a guess...
They are bulding cars and holding on to them. If they have to fix something they learned during the last month, they will fix all. They will then release all of them to customers at the same time.
They have a big building, how many cars can they hide in there?
I still believe they will release the cars they have next week. No big event planned so far, maybe they'll just ship the car and let the customer speak?
They are bulding cars and holding on to them. If they have to fix something they learned during the last month, they will fix all. They will then release all of them to customers at the same time.
They have a big building, how many cars can they hide in there?
I still believe they will release the cars they have next week. No big event planned so far, maybe they'll just ship the car and let the customer speak?
NigelM
Recovering Member
I doubt it. Why produce cars if you know in advance that you've got to go back and fix things? That's just doubling up on the work.
In my manufacturing experience this is how ramp up goes if you plan to hold inventory back. I highly doubt that Tesla will be sitting on more than a couple of days worth of production at the end of the year.
Steph
Member
I was talking about production of the last month. How many did they produce? We can only speculate at this point...
I don't think Zytheryn's info is wrong. I'm SSL#32, MVPA says July 15th. When I called last week I was told "Signatures will be delivered in September/October". I have not been contacted, I initiated all contacts. I want a good car, so as a driver I'm fine with the delay, although I'd like to have been told something somewhat earlier. As a shareholder, I'm afraid that the lack of communication might yet do bad things to the company. But they've never been good at communicating bad news.
Thank you ggr, I appreciate you sharing your experience.
Nigel, I would recommend contacting Tesla. At least for me, it gets tougher and tougher to 'reset' expectations the closer you get.
I haven't heard back yet, but I will update as I get any information.
Nigel, I would recommend contacting Tesla. At least for me, it gets tougher and tougher to 'reset' expectations the closer you get.
I haven't heard back yet, but I will update as I get any information.
Norbert
TSLA will win
At this point, Tesla has been praised for developing a completely new car *and* factory in a time that would be considered short even for established companies. It's not surprising that at the beginning of production, a few things need to be balanced out. This is probably a time where predicting what happens even next week is difficult, and might change each day. So keeping us informed about every step would just be hugely confusing. I can understand that people get excited about whether they get their car this month or that month, but it doesn't really say much about Tesla on a larger scale, and may create a false impression of importance. What matters, I think, is that the factory will at some point start producing high-quality cars at a good monthly rate. People outside this forum try to make us nervous by saying Tesla doesn't have enough money for even small delays, but it appears (at this point) that is a part of their continuous FUD attacks (and I don't think that term is too strong).
With as many investment shorts out there, it's actually in their monetary interest to create as much FUD as possible in the hopes of creating a negative cascade.
dflye
S Sig Perf 414, VIN 814
I agree on this -- I don't think any reservation holder needs to have up-to-the-minute updates on minuscule details that may impact their delivery date.
However, I do feel strongly that if the originally estimated delivery date is within a month of the present time, any changes to that date should be communicated to the reservation holders on a weekly basis, at minimum, in order to coordinate delivery with folks who either have vacations planned, are living in summer residences, etc.
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
Wow. I have to say that's pretty surprising. I completely agree about wanting a good car and being willing to wait. It's been 3.5 years. Another month or two is fine. But Tesla REALLY should let people know if they're not going to hit the pre-MVPA date, or get close, and there's no reason not to give a new estimate if they know they're going to be delayed. It's really a very basic rule of good customers relations -- once you have bad news to deliver, do it as soon as possible in as straightforward a way as possible. Reservation holders should not have to find out by contact Tesla (or reading message boards!).
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Agree wholeheartedly. Setting the right expectations for folks who are yet to finalize their MVPA or are yet to be contacted is one thing; not keeping the early sigs with such dates (July/August) on their MVPAs up to date (atleast tell them that it's going to be late-Q3/early-Q4) does leave a bad taste in the mouth.
As I pointed out on a different thread, it seems like the rank and file folks - ownership experience advocates, product specialists and such - are not truly clued in into the state of production. So, these foot-soldiers are probably unable to proactively reach out to customers with anything definitive at this stage.
I realize that we are all getting plain antsy about having our cars delivered ASAP but, GeorgeB, please address the communication hiccups and be as transparent as you can.
+1!
As I have said before, I don't mind the delay (even though it costs me $2800 per month of delay). I just want to hear about it from the company when it becomes clear the previous estimate is no longer valid.
