Demand

[RobStark]

They're cool. I have no problem with the product as a cool niche. But I guess Tesla wants it to be more than that sales-wise... We shall see if China loves it, but in rest of the world, I see the falcon wings as an obstacle, not an obstacle remover.

All Gen II vehicles are niche vehicles sales wise. Audi BMW and MB sell about 2.25M vehicles per year. The Gen II vehicle equivalents represent less than 3% of sales at Audi,BMW and MB.
Less at the second tier brands like Lexus,Cadillac etc. About 25% at Porsche but with Model 3 and Model Y Elon is aiming at 1M units per year by 2020 and to become Three Mary size by 2025. Porsche volume is mouse nutz in Elon's grand view of things.

Model X is cracking the Chinese market. That is worth more than all the potential lost sales outside China in the subniche of non flashy strictly utilitarian $100k CUVs. Cause even non FWD Model S has ASP of $100k.

 

[JRP3]

Soccer mom's don't give a rats ass about AWD,4WD,FWD, or RWD.

I think they do anywhere it snows regularly. Plus contrary to popular belief it's not just soccer moms buying SUV's.

 

[dennis]

Counterpoint on the Model X. Sales of Model X have been held back by a number of things:
- quality problems for about a year
- limited production capability at Tesla. S & X on the same line, X takes longer to build, more X means fewer total vehicles in a quarter
- lower gross margin on X means Tesla has a disincentive to promote it, especially with total production limited by one line
- limited number of Model X's on the road means less word of mouth driving additional sales

I'm agnostic on the FWD's but I did watch a mom put her daughter in the 2nd row at the grocery store last week and I came away thinking that they are actually very practical.

Over the past 3-4 months I have noticed a change. In my tony California town of 30,000 people I am seeing a LOT more Model X's on the road. My belief is that as Tesla has put the quality issues behind them potential buyers can evaluate the Model X for what it is (a really cool CUV) rather than for what might go wrong. I expect this to continue to build.

As far as what the ratio of CUV to sedan sales should be, I believe it will be different for Tesla since the Model S is such a practical sedan. Fewer buyers will need the extra capacity of an X than say a BMW 5 Series buyer who needs an X5 instead of the less capacious 540i.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Counterpoint on the Model X. Sales of Model X have been held back by a number of things:
- quality problems for about a year
- limited production capability at Tesla. S & X on the same line, X takes longer to build, more X means fewer total vehicles in a quarter
- lower gross margin on X means Tesla has a disincentive to promote it, especially with total production limited by one line
- limited number of Model X's on the road means less word of mouth driving additional sales

All these problems are caused by the falcon wings and would not exist without them.

I'm agnostic on the FWD's but I did watch a mom put her daughter in the 2nd row at the grocery store last week and I came away thinking that they are actually very practical.

That is the only example anyone ever makes about the practicality of the falcon wings. The small child in seat scenario. Massively offset by all the other threads about practicality and quality issues related to the doors.

As far as what the ratio of CUV to sedan sales should be, I believe it will be different for Tesla since the Model S is such a practical sedan. Fewer buyers will need the extra capacity of an X than say a BMW 5 Series buyer who needs an X5 instead of the less capacious 540i.

Model S indeed is genius. It is not a sedan at all, it is a hatchback. But looks sedan enough so the U.S. audience is fooled. It is a superb car in its class, unlike Model X with has limited folding and no roofracks thanks to the falcon wings.

No wonder I'm saying - sales-wise - Tesla should have made the Model X a big Model S and the Model 3 a small Model S... alas they did not.

 

[dennis]

All these problems are caused by the falcon wings and would not exist without them.

Total BS. Read the Model X Delivery Checklist thread.

The Model X was designed with falcon wing doors. You don't like them. Get over it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is one bear interpretation: Model X sits in a massively larger segment than Model S. It should be selling better, but I wager because of the falcon wings, it is not.

Model S is great for its age and type of vehicle. It really is a brilliant car for many markets. Doing really well, though obviously hitting the roof unless new markets open, but that is normal for a car its age. It is doing better than many.

Model X is a loveable freak, but clearly not a massive seller. As an SUV it should be selling twice or even three times Model S by now.

Model X *is* selling better that MS, with deliveries growing faster that MS. In Q1 2017, sixth quarter of MX sales it outsold MS in sixths quarter of it's sales by 68%. I bet that going forward the gap will grow further as the MX matures and reaches steady state sales.

 

[schonelucht]

Model X *is* selling better that MS, with deliveries growing faster that MS. In Q1 2017, sixth quarter of MX sales it outsold MS in sixths quarter of it's sales by 68%. I bet that going forward the gap will grow further as the MX matures and reaches steady state sales.

I submit that at the time of the ramp of the MS, Tesla was such a different company that it is impossible to make a meaningful like-for-like comparison in a thread about demand. We are talking things like geographical spread, the availability of superchargers, being production constrained due to not enough batteries etc...

It is also not that important. What's important is that Model X demand is by and large additive. It may replace an S sale here and there but mostly it opened up Tesla to new (or existing) customers who needed a car that was different from what the S offers.

 

[Spidy]

So everybody seems to be hyped about the Q1 numbers, but looking at the Model S excel sheet new orders seem kinda slow. Several US cars going into production at the beginning of the quarter with 2-3 weeks from order to production. And seems like Tesla is already building in the 191xxx+ range when VINs are only assigned up to 1940xx. Not to mention no 193xxx VINs so that's probably a Inventory car batch and not custom orders.

Oh and as expected many 60kWh orders in the last days

 

[EinSV]

So everybody seems to be hyped about the Q1 numbers, but looking at the Model S excel sheet new orders seem kinda slow. Several US cars going into production at the beginning of the quarter with 2-3 weeks from order to production. And seems like Tesla is already building in the 191xxx+ range when VINs are only assigned up to 1940xx. Not to mention no 193xxx VINs so that's probably a Inventory car batch and not custom orders.

Oh and as expected many 60kWh orders in the last days

Hmmm. I see that delivery times on the website for S and X in the US are already pushed back to June, which is 8 weeks out. Also about 5000 S VINs were issued in the last 30 days, which is roughly a 60K per year pace if it keeps up.

Looks like there continues to be strong demand for S and X. If there are no production shutdowns this quarter it could be interesting!

 

[neroden]

I am not wrong, you are just reading too much into what I say.

Do your research. Premium SUV market is massively larger than premium sedan.

Model X should be selling way more than Model S by now. It is being hindered by something. Falcon wings are the logical suspect...

Uh, actually the logical suspects are:
(1) production limitations, which were known to be severe for several quarters
(2) bad press from the early quality problems (OK, sure, blame falcon wings for this)
(3) extraordinarily high base price

There is some evidence that Model S sales, globally, are sort of flat, and that (...after accounting for the *price increases*) there have been periods of inventory build, discounts, and other things used to promote sales. (I still think if the base price was what it used to be they'd be *consistently* production constrained.) Model X continues to grow without such sales techniques so I'm pretty sure it hasn't reached its plateau even at the current price.

At some point, Tesla will cut the base prices and sales will rise. Probably after redoing the design and production lines again to backport the Model 3 production efficiencies such as "less wiring", though.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I submit that at the time of the ramp of the MS, Tesla was such a different company that it is impossible to make a meaningful like-for-like comparison in a thread about demand. We are talking things like geographical spread, the availability of superchargers, being production constrained due to not enough batteries etc...

A couple of things that are missing from your list are that while Model S was universally praised on it's introduction and won numerous prestigious awards, response to Model X launch was much less sanguine. The growth in sales of Tesla cars are mostly due to the word of mouth, so the most determinant driver for growth is fleet of existing cars and experiences of current owners, not the other factors you mentioned. In this light like-for-like comparisons, as you labeled my table up-thread, is more meaningful than you suggested. As a minimum, they just can't be waved off as you seem to have attempted.

It is also not that important. What's important is that Model X demand is by and large additive. It may replace an S sale here and there but mostly it opened up Tesla to new (or existing) customers who needed a car that was different from what the S offers.

The context of my post was to highlight that assertions that

• (About Model X) It should be selling better, but I wager because of the falcon wings, it is not.
• Model X is a loveable freak, but clearly not a massive seller.

were without merit. In this context sorting out how growth of Model S sales compares to Model X sales *is* important, because it is at the core of these assertions.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

A lot of you list higher price, delays, quality, sanguine reception etc. of Model X compared to Model S. Yet many or most of these things can be attributed to falcon wings.

Just ask yourself this: if Model X would have come out 1,5 years sooner with normal doors and at minimal price difference to Model S, with folding seats and none of the falcon wing related delays and quality issues...

How different would cumulative Model X sales be by now? And that is before we consider any resistance caused by the garage etc. concerns...

 

[Spidy]

Model S or Model 3

And while innovation at Tesla will never stop, the very best vehicles we make are already available for purchase and on the road today.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Model S or Model 3

And while innovation at Tesla will never stop, the very best vehicles we make are already available for purchase and on the road today.

Tesla has just officially become one very weird car company.

 

[electracity]

Tesla has just officially become one very weird car company.

The blog post just seems to me like a company trying to close sales and meet quarterly goals. Literally every potential customer looking at the model S is probably talking to the salesperson about the model 3.

Giving potential customers a good reason to postpone a major purchase decision is always bad. Peak all-time interest in Tesla cars and falling sales is always bad.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The blog post just seems to me like a company trying to close sales and meet quarterly goals. Literally every potential customer looking at the model S is probably talking to the salesperson about the model 3.

Giving potential customers a good reason to postpone a major purchase decision is always bad. Peak all-time interest in Tesla cars and falling sales is always bad.

To me the blog post seems nothing short of desperate.

As I can not believe Tesla actually are desperate (as in serious trouble), I think this stuff was already pushing it as an Elon tweet-storm, but this one takes the cake. Unless they have mortal fear, this type of PR just makes them look really weird.

As for customer's having their reasons for major purchase decisions. Well, they are the customer's major purchase decisions to have...

 

[adiggs]

Model S or Model 3

And while innovation at Tesla will never stop, the very best vehicles we make are already available for purchase and on the road today.

Seems pretty reasonable to me, given the Tesla context (they have 2 variations in the premium vehicle category, and none in any cheaper categories). For those of us (and I have previously been one) who thought they would be able to get all of the S bells & whistles, well Tesla is telling us that no, you won't be able to. Which bells & whistles will we be able to get? We don't know that yet, and we don't know if they'll be just as good as S/X or a slightly lesser variation (but the pretty strong hint here is they will be lesser variations).

Looks to me like Tesla is developing towards a normal car company with a range of quality and expense levels, to help us as consumers part with just as much money as we want to Admittedly, building out the product portfolio will take awhile, but Model 3 will be an important step down that road.

 

[kenliles]

Tesla has just officially become one very weird car company.

Hmmmm
I logged that milestone reached in 2012

 

[Spidy]

So everybody seems to be hyped about the Q1 numbers, but looking at the Model S excel sheet new orders seem kinda slow. Several US cars going into production at the beginning of the quarter with 2-3 weeks from order to production. And seems like Tesla is already building in the 191xxx+ range when VINs are only assigned up to 1940xx. Not to mention no 193xxx VINs so that's probably a Inventory car batch and not custom orders.

Oh and as expected many 60kWh orders in the last days

LOL. Found some of those 193xxx VINs... already in Europe?

 

[dennis]

To me the blog post seems nothing short of desperate.

Tesla has nothing to be desperate about. Here it is the first week of April and new orders for US delivery of both Model S and X are quoted for June. That is a 60 day backlog.