bdy0627
Active Member
A 2.6% net drop in the reservation backlog due to cancellations does not seem remotely concerning to me. If it was 10x, ok that's something to discuss, but 2.6%? That's just noise.
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I got similar flack when I said it looked like Tesla had just about gone thru the entire reservation list with offers to order. A few weeks later they opened the flood gates for orders from the remaining reservation holders and the general public. I still think Tesla will soon have a demand problem unless they produce the $35,000.00 model originally advertised. Many saw the $35,000.00 car and up to $10,000.00 government incentives(Federal and state in many cases) as an opportunity to get a really good EV for $25,000.00 Those buyers will never fork out $50,000+ for the car.
That full parking lot may happen sooner than you think.
We heard the exact same thing about Model S demand.
But they are not trying to produce 10,000/week model S's
And they aren't charging 75-150k for them.
Even without any incentive, show me a better car at $35k than a Tesla Model 3 Short Range. Show me a better car at $49k than the Model 3 Long Range with premium package.
why do you keep stating the same thing over and over? i can’t tell from your posts if you’re sincere or another wise guy. do you think they’re not going to produce the base model?
the plan was do the highest margin but easiest production first LR RWD
NOW it is to continue that, but also add the highest margin P, then AWD, and then pivot to the less expensive model after. they have a lot of spending on production ramp to overcome. it is very difficult to start something from scratch and succeed. especially when everyone (and the system) is against you.
hopefully now you understand. if not, are you just attempting to manufacture demand fear here?? if so, we don’t buy that BS here. peddle it elsewhere.
That's your opinion. I disagree.
it’s not an opinion. that’s the order they are producing the vehicles.
do you think they are not going to produce the base version?
Probably not before the incentive begin to phase out.
well, that’s completely different than not making it at all. a certain % of those purchasing the 35 base model won’t qualify for full 7500 FIT credit
for those that do, it sucks for them, but necessary for tesla to overcome the ramp/spending and continue forward. we all suffer for the greater good.
He never said anything about the incentive in the original post. I think you’re being purposefully obtuse.
If you really think demand is a problem, tell me what date (approximately) you believe Tesla will not be able to sell every model 3 they can produce? This might make it a worthwhile conversation. Because then you can project manufacturing, product mix, delivery logistics and regional mix, using all available date to make an informed guess.
Again, the company is no longer taking reservations in the U.S. and Canada. There is merely orders now in markets where the Model 3 is being delivered. That means the net reservation number no longer means what it used to mean. There are people that have placed orders in the last week of June that do not count towards the net reservation number anymore since they don't put down the $1,000 reservations anymore.
I don't doubt that quite a few people cancelled... there is a natural effect of people that cannot keep waiting in line or have given up hope on the standard range model. To have an estimated 600,000+ people reserve and about 25% cancel still means there are quite a few people still waiting on the car. I remember going through this period of doubt with the Model X as production rate started to increase, the U.S. reservation line started to drop, and there was a question if anyone was going to get in line or would it only be the early adopters. Well, it worked out for the Model X which is a much more expensive and niche vehicle than the Model 3.
Furthermore, very few people outside of those truly watching Tesla closely even know that it is possible to order a Model 3 LR RWD without a year+ wait time. As that becomes better known, we will then start to see the ongoing demand for that variant. But, as we go into 2019, the first overseas deliveries start to happen and will obfuscate the ongoing demand. We probably won't really know until 2020.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
This should silence the naysayers ... Tesla had over 7,000 new orders (5,000 Model 3’s and 2,000 S/X) last week, says Elon Musk
In a rare move, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed the automaker’s new order breakdown from last week in order to dispel the notion that demand for the Model 3 is flattening. Musk says that Tesla received over 7,000 new orders: over 2,000 for Model S and Model X, and 5,000 for Model 3. The move comes after top Wall Street analyst Rajvindra Gill at Needham issued a new note to clients today in which he claimed that Tesla is getting more Model 3 cancellations than new orders:
“Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate. The reasons are varied: extended wait times, the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model.” In our article about the note, we questioned the claim due to several other inaccuracies in Gill’s report and later Tesla also issued a statement denying that cancellations for the Model 3 are outpacing new orders. But now Musk is adding to the debate by confirming the new order rate of last week – something that Tesla generally never reveals:
Some notes on the numbers: 2,000 orders for Model S and Model X vehicles in a week is what Tesla is trying to average globally, which is good. As for “5,000 Model 3 new net orders”, the “net” indicates that it is after cancellations, which undoes Gill’s point, but it is also important to note that it comes after Tesla opened the design studio to everyone in North America and stopped the reservation process in the market.
Therefore, those new orders are likely only for North America. Tesla could also still be growing its backlog of reservations internationally. What is most impressive is that 5,000 new orders for Model 3 last week come several weeks after Tesla invited all reservation holders to order in North America. At that point, I believe Tesla received a very large batch of orders, likely much larger than 5,000, especially from those waiting for the two all-wheel-drive versions
In a rare move, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed the automaker’s new order breakdown from last week in order to dispel the notion that demand for the Model 3 is flattening. Musk says that Tesla received over 7,000 new orders: over 2,000 for Model S and Model X, and 5,000 for Model 3. The move comes after top Wall Street analyst Rajvindra Gill at Needham issued a new note to clients today in which he claimed that Tesla is getting more Model 3 cancellations than new orders:
“Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate. The reasons are varied: extended wait times, the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model.” In our article about the note, we questioned the claim due to several other inaccuracies in Gill’s report and later Tesla also issued a statement denying that cancellations for the Model 3 are outpacing new orders. But now Musk is adding to the debate by confirming the new order rate of last week – something that Tesla generally never reveals:
Some notes on the numbers: 2,000 orders for Model S and Model X vehicles in a week is what Tesla is trying to average globally, which is good. As for “5,000 Model 3 new net orders”, the “net” indicates that it is after cancellations, which undoes Gill’s point, but it is also important to note that it comes after Tesla opened the design studio to everyone in North America and stopped the reservation process in the market.
Therefore, those new orders are likely only for North America. Tesla could also still be growing its backlog of reservations internationally. What is most impressive is that 5,000 new orders for Model 3 last week come several weeks after Tesla invited all reservation holders to order in North America. At that point, I believe Tesla received a very large batch of orders, likely much larger than 5,000, especially from those waiting for the two all-wheel-drive versions
I should note that I think Tesla has somewhat saturated demand for premium-inteiror long-range *rear wheel drive* with *black interior*. About half of buyers want a light-colored interior; and about half of people want AWD, and probably more of the people who are ordering a highly loaded car want AWD.
Tesla has to start getting the rest of the options produced while ramping up the speed. Non-Performance AWD is apparently going to start being delivered in early August (a SpaceX employee apparently got his delivery date), so hopefully that'll be at high production rates soon. I hope we get some news on the white interior, since restricting it to Performance is definitely causing a lot of people to wait. And then of course they have to produce the smaller battery. And finally the non-premium interior.
Tesla has to start getting the rest of the options produced while ramping up the speed. Non-Performance AWD is apparently going to start being delivered in early August (a SpaceX employee apparently got his delivery date), so hopefully that'll be at high production rates soon. I hope we get some news on the white interior, since restricting it to Performance is definitely causing a lot of people to wait. And then of course they have to produce the smaller battery. And finally the non-premium interior.
Wow... Musk better hope this is accurate. Likely to bite him in the ass during any SEC investigation...
Really? Immediate market reaction says, Not so fast... Musk's Trump like Tweet fails to mention: Are these New Net, Net, orders or just folks on the waiting list, configuring? What does the SEC generally do when a CEO violates the quite period?
You clearly did not read the Q1 shareholder update letter. It specifically states that "Net Reservations includes configured orders that have not yet been delivered."
Therefore if someone who did not have a reservation, but configures an order on July 19th, that person would be included in the "Net Reservation" figure.
It is impossible to figure out when Elon bounces around from "Net Reservations" to tweeting about "New Net Orders" there is no consistency in the information being provided so it keeps everybody guessing. That is why I said I hope that they provide an update to the Net Reservation figure because we have prior data that we can evaluate against and actually hope to gain a better understanding of what is happening.
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