Tweeting during the quiet period on demand or lack there of, is an act of desperation. The Market is beginning to discount these confusing, unclear Tweets, but the SEC is surely taking notes...
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Tweeting during the quiet period on demand or lack there of, is an act of desperation. The Market is beginning to discount these confusing, unclear Tweets, but the SEC is surely taking notes...
I think that is why he is doing this. It is hard to make comparisons when the conditions keep changing.
It's always appropriate and legal for a company to issue press releases (and Musk simply confirmed the press release) debunking completely bogus rumors.
Also, there's no "quiet period" going on. That's the period between filing a securities registration statement and having it approved by the SEC. And even if there was they'd be allowed to make this press release.
In the "informal quiet period" before earnings, nearly any company would debunk an obviously bogus rumor. What needs to be avoided in that period is *selective* disclosure, so world publication of information is not restricted at all.
Also, there's no "quiet period" going on. That's the period between filing a securities registration statement and having it approved by the SEC. And even if there was they'd be allowed to make this press release.
In the "informal quiet period" before earnings, nearly any company would debunk an obviously bogus rumor. What needs to be avoided in that period is *selective* disclosure, so world publication of information is not restricted at all.
Driver Dave
Member
Everyone who gets in my Tesla, wants one.
There will never be a demand problem.
Except with all those clunky old ICE cars pretty soon.
There will never be a demand problem.
Except with all those clunky old ICE cars pretty soon.
What is the quiet period for earnings?
1. Quiet Period — The period beginning on the quarter-end date and ending at the time of the earnings release for that quarter should be observed as a quiet period with no formal or informal business discussions by management with analysts or investors.
bdy0627
Active Member
Given an available $35K base model and deliveries being made internationally, I very much agree that demand should never be an issue.
However, for the current variants of the car which start at $49K, it's hard to say how much demand can be sustained in North America once most of the US federal income tax credit is gone. Certainly quite a bit more than the Model S or X, but likely less than what the Fremont factory can produce.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Lots of people buy BMW 3 series or Audi A3/4 for $50k. They should worry about demand.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Some people insist that Tesla has a demand problem in spite of the facts that they have never had a demand problem and that they have hundreds of thousands of paid reservations. The shorts will not be deterred by mere facts.
Krugerrand
Meow
Right!? It’s like liver, split pea soup, sea urchin or calf fries: ridiculous and who in their right mind?
There are but two options if you’re arguing Tesla has a demand issue; stupid or obtuse. Take your pick, gentlemen, but not for a second is it anything else.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Krugerrand
Meow
That’s kind of both stupid and obtuse - so, yeah option 3.
Krugerrand
Meow
Kind of falls under obtuse but okay, we’ll give them an option 4.
NoBeard
Member
Dishonest infers determined misrepresentation with malice, while obtuse seems less malevolent.
Shorts feeling cornered = dishonest
Try anything to mitigate the impending disaster to their position.
Krugerrand
Meow
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
A topic of interest to me has been whether the less expensive Model 3 short range w' standard interior might begin to impinge on mainstream as well as luxury automobiles.
Honda has recently launched what they consider to be an "upscale" compact car, the 3rd Generation Insight hybrid: 2019 Honda Insight - Hybrid of style and efficiency | Honda
In terms of overall physical footprint, cabin space, and trunk capacity, the Insight is very close to the Model 3. Both cars are about 185" long, have 97 ft3 of cabin space, and a 15 ft3 trunk.
For people not familiar with Honda product, the new Insight is based upon the same platform as the Civic, but has a more refined suspension, different body panels, more sound insulation, and better interior materials. The powertrain is a 1.5 liter Atkinson Cycle DOHC i-VTEC gasoline motor, connected to 2 electric motors: one for regenerative purposes, and the other for driving the front wheels. Most of the time, the Insight acts like a serial hybrid, with the 1.5L motor acting as an electric generator which feeds power to the primary electric motor. At highway speeds, the 1.5L motor can directly drive the front wheels for maximum efficiency. The Insight achieves an EPA rating of 55/49/52 MPG City/Highway/Combined using this complicated powertrain. With 151 peak horsepower, 0-60 is possible in about 8.5 seconds.
The midrange Honda Insight EX has an MSRP of $24,060. With upgraded 17" wheels and the addition of ultrasound proximity sensors, the sticker price is $26,652. It has a cloth interior, 8" infotainment system, 60/40 split folding rear bench, and Honda Sensing (Honda's active safety suite). There is no moonroof, no power seats, no fog lights, and no seat heaters. This is as comparable as I can get feature wise to the entry level Model 3.
The question I have, is whether buyers would be willing to pay an extra $10k for a Model 3 SR (35k base price, +1k for paint choice). I have intentionally left out any tax advantages, because the credit begins to phase out after this year, and not everyone has enough income tax liability to take full advantage of the maximum credit.
The Model 3 has the following advantages:
- Much better acceleration: 0-60 in 5.6s, a whole 3 seconds quicker.
- Sportier handling. Model 3's weight balance is more optimal and the CoG is lower. Insight is still 60/40 Front/Rear weight balance due to its FWD architecture.
- Autopilot hardware. Much more advanced computer systems and more cameras. AP2 software has also improved rapidly in the past 6 months.
- More advanced interior. The 15" touchscreen and dashboard vent are far more advanced than anything Honda offers.
- Lower fueling costs. At 15,000 miles/year, the Model 3 costs about $527/year to power, at EPA rating of 27 kWh per 100 miles, and cost of $0.13 per kWh. The Insight costs $865 to fuel for the same distance, at 52 MPG average and $3/gallon of fuel.
- More refined driving experience. A side-effect of the Insight's series hybrid nature is that the 1.5L motor can drone under heavy load, which many reviewers have found to be a bit irritating. The Model 3's EV powertrain is silent by comparison.
- A frunk that is good for 2 more cubic feet of storage.
The Insight's fuel tank is a paltry 10.6 gallons, but the efficiency of the hybrid powertrain allows for up to 551 miles of unrefueled range. In practice, Honda vehicles tend to turn on their "low fuel" warning lights and indicate empty when 2 gallons are left, but this still gives the driver about 450 miles of driving before the irritating warning light turns on. This is more than double the Model 3 SR's estimated nominal EPA range of 215-220 miles. While home charging and Supercharging mitigate this disadvantage, some drivers will find the Insight's longer range to be more convenient. Others may find that they need to spend an hour eating lunch anyways, and that they can travel close to the same 400-450 miles on the Model 3, using the Supercharger networks, and not incur much if any time penalty.
I do not know how this will play out, but I suspect that it is possible that Model 3 could begin to steal away not just BMW 3-series buyers, but some mainstream car buyers too.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Why are so many Ram trucks parked at Gibraltar Trade Center?
Looks like demand for Dodge trucks is collapsing too
Looks like demand for Dodge trucks is collapsing too
Cross post from Market Action:
Let me address the "negative views on demand":
1. Tesla currently has >420,000 reservations/orders for Model 3 with a production rate of ~5k/week
2. Therefore, at current production rate they would need 84 weeks that is more than 1.5 years to fulfill the backlog.
3. During that time many more new orders will be placed, so this time will grow!
4. In light of this, no sane person would seriously entertain the idea of a demand problem.
So if you want to talk about demand problems, then you are either:
a) joking
b) trolling
c) or insane
Take you pick!
Once Tesla has cleared the backlog and moves into the MO of other car manufacturers, i.e. producing cars without orders to dump them into numerous dealership lots for several months in the hope that one day a sucker will walk into the dealership and the sales people there will be able to convince him/her to buy that dust collecting hunk metal, then and only then we can start talking about real demand problems.
In the meantime, Tesla demand problem only exists in the imaginary alternate universes of some delusional people and we would like to focus the discussion on actual reality here.
ps: to elaborate on #3 above: people do not like to wait years when they make a purchase decision, once the backlog is reduced to a time-frame that is acceptable to people on any model, e.g a few weeks to couple of months, then a lot more people will be willing to place an order, so backlog shortening has a tendency to slow down, so eliminating the backlog could take many many years.
Let me address the "negative views on demand":
1. Tesla currently has >420,000 reservations/orders for Model 3 with a production rate of ~5k/week
2. Therefore, at current production rate they would need 84 weeks that is more than 1.5 years to fulfill the backlog.
3. During that time many more new orders will be placed, so this time will grow!
4. In light of this, no sane person would seriously entertain the idea of a demand problem.
So if you want to talk about demand problems, then you are either:
a) joking
b) trolling
c) or insane
Take you pick!
Once Tesla has cleared the backlog and moves into the MO of other car manufacturers, i.e. producing cars without orders to dump them into numerous dealership lots for several months in the hope that one day a sucker will walk into the dealership and the sales people there will be able to convince him/her to buy that dust collecting hunk metal, then and only then we can start talking about real demand problems.
In the meantime, Tesla demand problem only exists in the imaginary alternate universes of some delusional people and we would like to focus the discussion on actual reality here.
ps: to elaborate on #3 above: people do not like to wait years when they make a purchase decision, once the backlog is reduced to a time-frame that is acceptable to people on any model, e.g a few weeks to couple of months, then a lot more people will be willing to place an order, so backlog shortening has a tendency to slow down, so eliminating the backlog could take many many years.
The probable large number of U.S. residents holding $1000 reservations is likely an odd duck for Tesla. Behavioral economics suggests that many reservations were initially made to avoid future regret. I expect many 3 reservations are being held now in a state of uncertainty.
I wonder what percentage of S/X owners currently hold a 3 reservation.
I wonder what percentage of S/X owners currently hold a 3 reservation.
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