Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[rcc]

Range isn't the only problem. From a driver's perspective, I think the real problem is gearing.

I'm guessing here because Realist isn't giving us any real data. But ...

A great strength of the S is instant high torque and no gears. No "I need to downshift, spin the engine up to speed and then go." Even on a Ferrari, that takes a split second of time. On the S, you just hit the throttle and the car moves. At 75 mph. At 120 mph, I suspect not so much. The engine is probably nearing max rpm. If the S even had a two-speed transmission, it would be a different story. But as I understand it, Tesla had real problems sourcing a transmission that could shift very quickly and withstand extremely high torque. I'm sure you can get one - Ferrari and McLaren probably have a similar problem - but the cost is likely very high. Way too high to keep the S at its target price point.

And frankly, it's not worth it. Where else in the world but Germany can you drive for hours at those speeds? Nowhere that I know of. Either the highways aren't good enough or guaranteed to be free of obstructions or the speed laws won't permit it.

So the high speed German market is a niche market. Germany's population is about 82 million people. That's like Texas, California and New York put together so it's a decent sized niche. But even if Tesla never sells a single car in Germany, it's not a backbreaker. France and the UK put together is about 120 million. The US is over 300 million. Not to mention China and the rest of the world.

The S may be at a disadvantage in Germany in its current form. But even if that's the case, as a stockholder I'm not worried. I'm sure they'll sell some in Germany to the folks who cruise at 80-90 mph on the highway instead of 120. And even if they don't, the changes required to make the car great at those speeds isn't worth the investment - yet.

Tesla will have its hands full building and selling cars in every other part of the world. If they can do that, they'll make a ton of money in the process. They can worry about two-speed transmissions later. When they bring out the E, the volumes will be there to make the business case for sourcing such a transmission reasonable.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Hmm... when I was speaking with Rafael de Mestre who lives in Germany he mentioned that the fun part about the Model S is that while driving at 190km/h most cars that drive are veeery slow to change speed up. So all the BMW's, Audi's etc if they decide to pass anyone at 190 km/h or accelerate for what ever reason it happens in slow-motion. While when he's going at 190km/h in the Model S and floors it the car jumps forward instantly. Yes it's not as hard as it is at 0 or 100km/h, but it's still instant change in speed and that it was something that he had to get used to when he was doing autobahn speeds as at those speeds the relative motions have to really be observed between cars and a car that behaves differently to others is somewhat unexpected. So not sure why you'd need a two-shift gearbox

 

[rcc]

Hey, like I said, I'm guessing because Realist won't give us specifics on what he doesn't like.

That said, I think you're right on gas-powered cars. The S is better than my old BMW 330i at any speed I've tried. I never cracked 100 mph with either but the response was falling off on the 3 as one approached 90 mph so I think the S would hold its own.

Don't know about diesel though. With its high torque, it's possible that diesel cars at high speeds could be better than both the S or a gas-powered car.

Can anyone who drives a good diesel at autobahn speeds comment?

 

[VolkerP]

WRT Registration numbers: In Germany were released by the Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA). Same authority that concluded the Model S review back in December and cleared Tesla of any wrong doing.

Germany 181 Model S
Switzerland 155 Model S Jan-Nov
Austria 55 Model S IIRC
Norway approaching 2000

BTW on most sites, Tesla numbers are too low to get extra listing. KBA has indicated they will list Tesla separately for 2014.

WRT high speed long distance driving in Germany: Nigel is right. High speeds of +100mph can be driven only at night time on limited strips of Autobahn. General speed limits, 2 lanes, heavy traffic, or construction sites make it impossible to get to high average speeds. Well the problem for Tesla is more of perceived limitation.

Last Monday, Tesla in Stuttgart lent a P85+ to an individual to test Stuttgart - Munich where there is 1 supercharger. He was concerned with range, as he is used to barrel down the Autobahn with his 700hp tuned Audi RS6. He ordered a P85+ the very same evening.

 

[WarpedOne]

> > I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.
> > You cannot do this in an electric car.
> Yes you can. You just need battery swapping instead of charging.

For 650 km even better solution is just a bit bigger battery. 110 kWh might still not cut it, but 150 kWh on the other hand should suffice for 750 km.
Even bigger batteries don't offer much value anymore. It boils down to how far one can reasonably drive in a day. 300 km? Yes, easily. 500 km? Doable. 700 km? Hard but possible. 1000 km? GTFO.

 

[maekuz]

This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzgeräte or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)

Living in Hamburg i second that. No one in their right mind drives to Munich by car. You take the train or better yet the plane.

Here is a map with the german Autobahn, blue means no speed limit: http://www.autobahnatlas-online.de/Limitkarte.pdf

 

[perdru]

Living in Hamburg i second that. No one in their right mind drives to Munich by car. You take the train or better yet the plane.

Here is a map with the german Autobahn, blue means no speed limit: http://www.autobahnatlas-online.de/Limitkarte.pdf

You may be right.
Anyhow, with Tesla´s announced German SC network driving long distances at high speed should not be a problem even i Germany

 

[Robert.Boston]

To answer Mario: the gearbox is needed to get to higher speeds than the current 120-130mph limit. The top speed is limited by the RPMs of the motor and Tesla's choice of the gearing in the reducer. (Technically the Model S does have a transmission, but it only has one gear.)

 

[JRP3]

I suppose Tesla could do a "German" gearing and give up a bit of acceleration on the low end to move the top speed up. Rough estimate I think they could hit a 150mph top speed and still have acceptable low end acceleration.

 

[Realist]

Very lively discussion, nice.

I think it’s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate. For the Model S this is a problem because even with the 85 kwh battery the amount of energy transported is less than the equivalent of 10l of Gasoline or Diesel.

When I tried the Model s I drove it in the same manner as my standard car. If you really go to the topspeed you basically destroy your range. The Model S one single gear doesn’t help because even the electric drive of the Tesla has different efficiency levels depending on engine speed. Therefore as soon as your torque curve goes down your efficiency suffers as well. In an 8 speed gasoline car this is less an issue.

When I tried the Tesla the car really started to limit power severely. It was still capable of reaching its top speed but the acceleration was quite poor. I don’t know if this has to do only with thermal management. I think Tesla want’s to limit the power in order to prevent the range from collapsing. BMW is doing this on the i3. Above 130 kph the car feels like it has 60hp. Just like the Tesla feels like a 200hp car above 180kph.

I am driving on the Autobahn A9 from Ingolstadt to my office close to Munich every day. It is a 3 line Autobahn and I can touch the top speed of my car almost every single day even during the morning hours. This is of course not the case on a 2 line Autobahn which are common in the middle and north of germany. However during nighttime going 200, 250 even 300 is not a problem in the right car. And when things get crowed the unlimited speed clearly helps you passing other cars. Indeed many Autobahn parts are limited and restricted. But even with a 130kph speed limit you can drive 150 without getting a fine. Drive 150kph in your Tesla and the range will already suffer dramatically. But this is a speed you can drive in many parts of Europe like France, Italy, Spain etc……..It took me less than 6 hours to go from the Paris Auto Show to Munich.

The only european country with severe speed limits is Switzerland. In this country I set the cruise control to 120 and that’s it. Switzerland is in my opinion the worst country to drive a car. Driving at constant speed is no fun at all and you really need to concentrate otherwise you fell asleep. It happened to my father when he drove to Geneva in a Mercedes S Class. It was all too boring. :-D I am happy to drive in germany. The majority of the german people actually favor unlimited speed. The cars are built for this. We had 300kph saloon cars like the Alpina Biturbo in the 80s.

Is it the most efficient way to drive at such insane speeds? Of course not. But is it reasonable to drive a sportscar or a motorbike just for fun? What is the difference between driving fast and driving down your favourite without destination? Yes it is fun and I think in the year 2014 we should be able to drive faster than 130 kph on our roads. In the 80s cars had no ESP or ABS. So why should the speed be limited now just for environmental reasons? Using a car is never really energy efficient. In this country you can ALWAYS use the train, the plane, the bus or a bicycle instead. But you have the choice, just as you have the choice to go fast or slow in your car.
Yet many people will still like the Tesla and there’s no problem with that. It’s a unique car in its on right. An Autobahn rocket it is not.

 

[Johan]

[...] An Autobahn rocket it is not.

It's interesting to read your take on driving/transportation. What you are describing is very, very uncommon, even in Bavaria as far as I am aware of. You are one of the very few percentage of Germans (ppm of the world's drivers) who actually use the ability of luxury cars to the fullest. Much can be said about that, both that it's nice to know that there is one place on earth where it's still legal to go that fast on the other hand I wouldn't want to crash at speeds like that and you are really burning energy going that fast (no matter if it's kWh of electricity or fossil fuels). The point though is that Tesla might loose 1 ppm of their potential customer base world-wide. So what?

In Norway top speed limit is 100 km/h on two-way highways with middle of the road divider. Go figure. (There is talk about increasing this limit to 110 km/h). And you will get a hefty fine for going 10-20 km/h over that, and you will loose your licence going 130 km/h+. Did I mention there is a "zero-vision" when it comes to traffic casualties that is taken seriously by politicians here?

 

[ggr]

I think it’s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate.

Quadratic, not exponential. Actually cubic in power consumption, but quadratic in energy used to get from A to B. Many people say "exponential" when what they really mean is that it curves upward. Sorry to be pedantic, but as a professional mathematician I just can't help myself.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I would just like to point out that if car traveling at 90km/h has kinetic energy E, then a car driving at 180km/h has 4x E and a car going at 270km/h (your kind of speed limit, Realist) the cars kinetic energy is 9x E. That means that if you DO crash at that speed the car has to absorb 9x the energy of a 90km/h crash which in itself is already quite a severe crash. Most countries limit speeds at 130km/h HIGHEST. Normal speed limits on highways are between 90-110km/h. Basically your kinetic energy doubles going 50 -> 70 -> 100 km/h in every step as the kinetic energy formula is E = 1/2 m v^2 so it's a square dependence on speed.

Just think about that the next time you fly on the autobahn at 270km/h

 

[deonb]

What you are describing is very, very uncommon, even in Bavaria as far as I am aware of. You are one of the very few percentage of Germans (ppm of the world's drivers) who actually use the ability of luxury cars to the fullest.

I agree that the top speeds Realist is referring to is uncommon. But I've lived in a couple of places where driving in speeds at excess of 100mph for hours is actually fairly common:

a) The E11 between Dubai and Abu Dhabi
b) The N3 between Johannesburg and Durban
c) The N1 between Johannesburg and Capetown

It's not legal (speed limit is 75mph), but the fines are still so small at 100mph, that if you can afford the car and fuel to average 100mph, you won't care about an occasional $50 fine a few times per year - it also has no impact on your license or insurance.

So e.g. on the N3 virtually every non-towing vehicle would drive over 85mph, with half over 90mph and about 25% over 95mph. For 400 miles.

BUT! It's also very common in South Africa to stop for LONG breaks when refueling. The highway gas stations in South Africa will put any gas station in the U.S. to shame, with large sit-down restaurants, stores, and sometimes even picnic areas with braais (BBQ's) etc. Charging is NOT an issue. Security however is of utmost concern there - you can't do what you do in the U.S. and place a SuperCharger in some parking lot next to some strip mall that's closed at night. You HAVE to put them in highway gas stations that have 24x7 armed security.


Anyway, my point is - every culture is very different when it comes to travelling. I hope when Tesla expands they will really take into account local customs and traditions, and it's not just someone in CA looking at a map from halfway across the world and putting some pins on a map.

 

[perdru]

In Norway top speed limit is 100 km/h on two-way highways with middle of the road divider. Go figure. (There is talk about increasing this limit to 110 km/h). And you will get a hefty fine for going 10-20 km/h over that, and you will loose your licence going 130 km/h+. Did I mention there is a "zero-vision" when it comes to traffic casualties that is taken seriously by politicians here?

Anyone keeping the 100 km/h speed limit in Norway will be left behind - actual speed on the 100 km/h limit " freeways " is 120 - 125 km/h ( 78 mph ).

Living in the south of Norway I often visit Germany , not solely to speed on the Autobahn ;-), but the no-speed-limit is really one of features when driving a high performance car.

I share the fast lane with many dedicated drivers and I hope a lot of Tesla Model S´s soon join me

 

[ModelS8794]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]

Very lively discussion, nice.

I think it’s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate. For the Model S this is a problem because even with the 85 kwh battery the amount of energy transported is less than the equivalent of 10l of Gasoline or Diesel.

When I tried the Model s I drove it in the same manner as my standard car. If you really go to the topspeed you basically destroy your range. ...

I am driving on the Autobahn A9 from Ingolstadt to my office close to Munich every day. It is a 3 line Autobahn and I can touch the top speed of my car almost every single day even during the morning hours.

So you have an 160km round trip commute and are worried about range at high speeds? You can go 150kph to your heart's content and likely spend some time right at top speeds besides. Just plug in every night.

No, not an autobahn rocket. But if it's about you, then it seems the car fits your daily driver needs quite nicely. If it's not about you, perhaps consider how extreme your case seems to be. Can Tesla survive the shame of only meeting your daily needs but no more, and still sell a few (2-3) thousand MS units in Germany? I think that's really all they need.[/FONT]

 

[Discoducky]

WRT Registration numbers: In Germany were released by the Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA). Same authority that concluded the Model S review back in December and cleared Tesla of any wrong doing.

Germany 181 Model S
Switzerland 155 Model S Jan-Nov
Austria 55 Model S IIRC
Norway approaching 2000

BTW on most sites, Tesla numbers are too low to get extra listing. KBA has indicated they will list Tesla separately for 2014.

WRT high speed long distance driving in Germany: Nigel is right. High speeds of +100mph can be driven only at night time on limited strips of Autobahn. General speed limits, 2 lanes, heavy traffic, or construction sites make it impossible to get to high average speeds. Well the problem for Tesla is more of perceived limitation.

Last Monday, Tesla in Stuttgart lent a P85+ to an individual to test Stuttgart - Munich where there is 1 supercharger. He was concerned with range, as he is used to barrel down the Autobahn with his 700hp tuned Audi RS6. He ordered a P85+ the very same evening.

Thanks VolkerP! It is going to be very interesting to see the Germany #'s unfold up to and including March when the Supercharger network is fully built out for Germany.

Also, do the headlights for German cars have a setting to see farther ahead at greater than 100mph? I've driven a few cars above 100mph on the highway at night and you really cannot see far enough ahead. Only with the PIAA lights on the MINI Cooper (which basically turn night into day) would project near far enough.

 

[RobStark]

http://translate.google.com/transla...-langstreckentest-1.18226862&biw=1600&bih=900

New German review of Model S that includes autobahn driving with rough google translation.

 

[brianman]

http://translate.google.com/transla...-langstreckentest-1.18226862&biw=1600&bih=900

New German review of Model S that includes autobahn driving with rough google translation.

Thanks for the link, Rob! But...

Can someone (a human please) translate the conclusion paragraph? The google translation leaves much to be desired.

 

[VolkerP]

translation of final paragraph from NZZ article by me:

Some incidents of battery fires made it into the news. According to Tesla, these were caused by external damages. A fire started while charging would be disastrous, but that has never happened.

Conclusion: With Model S, Tesla offers a premium class sedan (prices from 83.000 to 147.000 swiss Franks, service included, 8 years battery warranty) that excels any comparable gasoline or diesel powered vehicle. Electric mobility must be experienced exactly like this, if it is to prevail.