Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[EatsShoots]

So do we think another price cut is imminent? Should I wait for the 2024 … thoughts?

My advice on this topic and most topics is: If something is a good price to you now, and you want/need it, then buy it.

I ordered a base model 3 for $38k on the nose on July 4. Five days ago it was $37k. Now it's $39k. I've seen people throw away good deals because they get greedy, trying to scrape every last dollar out of it. If Tesla dropped the model 3 to $35k I guarantee we'd see people asking if they think the price will drop even further.

 

[GenSao]

My advice on this topic and most topics is: If something is a good price to you now, and you want/need it, then buy it.

I ordered a base model 3 for $38k on the nose on July 4. Five days ago it was $37k. Now it's $39k. I've seen people throw away good deals because they get greedy, trying to scrape every last dollar out of it. If Tesla dropped the model 3 to $35k I guarantee we'd see people asking if they think the price will drop even further.

Agreed.

Though the rumor of a refresh for the Model 3 (Highland) this year with a follow-up for the Model Y in 2024 may increase prices. Are the rumored improvements are worth the wait?

 

[vickh]

Agreed.

Though the rumor of a refresh for the Model 3 (Highland) this year with a follow-up for the Model Y in 2024 may increase prices. Are the rumored improvements are worth the wait?

But they'll clear existing inventory at lower $ too then?

 

[vickh]

bummer white went up $1K but good for those who want silver. I wanted white/white for AZ summers

 

[Moquinmoreno7]

Agreed.

Though the rumor of a refresh for the Model 3 (Highland) this year with a follow-up for the Model Y in 2024 may increase prices. Are the rumored improvements are worth the wait?

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Love this thank you!!

 

[ivyvy]

Agreed.

Though the rumor of a refresh for the Model 3 (Highland) this year with a follow-up for the Model Y in 2024 may increase prices. Are the rumored improvements are worth the wait?

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Would be an interesting graph with inventory history layered over

 

[GenSao]

Would be an interesting graph with inventory history layered over

Yes it would, but the accuracy of inventory data are debatable. Note, I typically do not include the effect of promotional offers in the base price; such the $500 referral credit and inventory discounts.

For completeness, here are the charts for the S & X.

Link to data here.

 

[vickh]

why not include the $500 referral credit? It's different than free miles or FSD

 

[GenSao]

why not include the $500 referral credit? It's different than free miles or FSD

To keep it simple, I only track MSRP a.k.a. base price. Gest messy when I include other items. I made an exception for off-the-menu (OTM) tracking and the Model 3 P- trim.

Pricing excludes order fees, destination charges, government fees, taxes, promotional offers, and all options. Pricing ≠ actual cost at delivery. Base Price includes features included as standard at a given time and excludes impact of added/removed features.

Promotions vary greatly, and I include notes of them (when I remember) in the timeline.

 

[SeaNile]

Dealer said if he can find a Y in transit but not yet claimed he can probably offer me a discount. My question to him was this a rejected car, something wrong with it, etc. Said it's Tesla's physiology not to have cars in inventory so they will discount about $1000 to move them quickly.

Any experience with this or do I just go the usual way and order the Y?

 

[thefisch]

Dealer said if he can find a Y in transit but not yet claimed he can probably offer me a discount. My question to him was this a rejected car, something wrong with it, etc. Said it's Tesla's physiology not to have cars in inventory so they will discount about $1000 to move them quickly.

Any experience with this or do I just go the usual way and order the Y?

Who's a dealer? Do you mean a sales associate (SA) at a showroom?

Inventory discounts were common last quarter but it seems hit or miss this quarter. Check the inventory on the website. SA doesn't set discounts as far as I know, but they probably mean they've seen discounts on unsold cars. Doesn't mean they're rejected cars. You can always for details like build date, transit date, etc. to determine if the cars been there.

Either way you go you can save another $500 and get 3 months FSD with a referral from an owner. Happy to help if you need one.

 

[Euphony010]

Anyone else out there considering taking advantage of the FSD Transfer? My 2020 car was $62,900 w/ FSD back in 2020. Can get the same car for $54,800 plus the $7500 credit. $47,300.

Outside of USS Ultra Sonic Sensors.. Id love the new comfort suspension, better MCU, HW4.. what else?

 

[SilentWarp]

You never mentioned the shitty trade offer from Tesla. Its kind of important to your calculation.

 

[Euphony010]

Tesla trade in is around $35k. It is what it is now that prices are down, tax credit, and sufficient supply. Similar used teslas in my market are listed $38-42k. The FSD transfer and tax credit (which didn’t exist in 2020) take the sting out.

 

[pshifrin]

I’m considering the same. ‘21 with 52k miles and FSD that was 10k at the time. Lack of USS is a big big big concern of mine but I had a more recent loaner a few months ago and it was so much quieter, smoother and faster UX with the AMD chip.

About $13k equity in the car after loan payoff + 7500 tax credit… very very tempting!

 

[Euphony010]

If they added ventilated seats or one of the two new Giga Berlin colors, I’d already have submitted my order lol

 

[SilentWarp]

Tesla trade in is around $35k. It is what it is now that prices are down, tax credit, and sufficient supply. Similar used teslas in my market are listed $38-42k. The FSD transfer and tax credit (which didn’t exist in 2020) take the sting out.

Actually, not a bad trade offer considering Vroom doesn't buy Tesla anymore and Carvana's offers are for comedy only. Both got Elon'd pretty badly this year and lost millions.

 

[Euphony010]

Actually, not a bad trade offer considering Vroom doesn't buy Tesla anymore and Carvana's offers are for comedy only. Both got Elon'd pretty badly this year and lost millions.

The tesla trade in experience obviously doesn’t reflect the new FSD Transfer process, and the trade in offer mentions that the value of FSD is included in the offer. If they deduct the value from the trade (even a couple $1k) in order to transfer, that might be enough to stop me from doing it..

 

[grovny]

Anyone else out there considering taking advantage of the FSD Transfer? My 2020 car was $62,900 w/ FSD back in 2020. Can get the same car for $54,800 plus the $7500 credit. $47,300.

Outside of USS Ultra Sonic Sensors.. Id love the new comfort suspension, better MCU, HW4.. what else?

I'm thinking about trading my 2018 M3 LR for a new M3 LR under this one-time deal. But just texted with Tesla agent who said HW4 is "only confirmed on Model S and X", and the 4680 battery configuration is "only confirmed on the Model Y AWD". I'm tempted to believe this wording allows the possibility of HW4 and 4680's on newly ordered M3's, but they're not going to say whether you get those or not.

Would love to see a complete feature comparison between my 2018 and the current M3.

 

[azred]

I'm thinking about trading my 2018 M3 LR for a new M3 LR under this one-time deal. But just texted with Tesla agent who said HW4 is "only confirmed on Model S and X", and the 4680 battery configuration is "only confirmed on the Model Y AWD". I'm tempted to believe this wording allows the possibility of HW4 and 4680's on newly ordered M3's, but they're not going to say whether you get those or not.

Would love to see a complete feature comparison between my 2018 and the current M3.

”…this wording allows the possibility of HW4 … on newly ordered M3's” That would be quite a scoop if you find such a car.