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Drop 40k on a Tesla or invest 40k in Tesla stock
- Thread starter Imlkrsfn
- Start date
CarlK
Active Member
What numbers you're talking about? That it "burns" money and not making profits? I'll give you an example. If you spend one million dollars to build a house did you lose a million dollar? Those Wall Street pundits seem to think so. Few are talking about what the house you're building and how much it will worth. In less than a decade Tesla has made three new top selling models with more ready to come. It grew sales 50% or more year over year that no auto company has done,. It has built gigafatories and supercharger network no one else could match. It has assemble a top team and developed the best AI hardware and neural net software for autonomous technology tied to its fleet of hundreds of thousands cars, again no one else can match, which likely will dominate the industry in the years to come. Those are facts which you can use to decide how much the house it's building should worth. I believe it will worth A LOT when it's built. Few can see that Tesla is going after world domination. You can make your own assessment to decide it you want to invest in building the house. I know what is mine.
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Elon tightening the purse strings. Knows that the magical imaginary demand is not out there, especially with treating customers like crap. Still hemorrhaging cash and so many bills to pay. Selling m3s at record pace but still can't make any money.
I own 2 teslas plus their stock, but see nowhere to go but down.
I own 2 teslas plus their stock, but see nowhere to go but down.
The secret sauce of autopilot...many other car makers have something very similar...I do not think it is as special as they make it out to be.
CarlK
Active Member
That's the problem which is same as all those analysts have. They are auto analysts with little knowledge of technology. Even for technology analysts they don't have that much better understanding in this either, although they do have a different investment mentality. No disrespect but if you don't have the ability to look deep inside the technology and can only glance at superficial stuff it's hard to make the right conclusion. To me, a believer, the more non-believers out there the better. That only means the stock price is depressed and has a lot to go when things start to be more clear.
Past history never indicates the future but this has an eerie similarity to what happened to Netflix early this decade when it was also a perennial money loser and most shorted stock at the time. After good price performance Netflix went all in to the streaming model. Its stoke price dropped more than 70% in 2010-2011. Then the stock started that meteoric rise when people started to see the business model made sense. People who bought at that point eventually got ~4,000% return. Even for people who bought at the peak before the fall have made ~1.000% return. So you ask how could you know that, which is the one million dollar question and why some makes money and others don't.
Just remember, if analysts were truly good at their jobs, they wouldn’t be analysts.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Waymo doesn't sell its system to regular people. That's a specialty against consumers.
Cadillac CT6 Super Cruise does not work in most of the places that I travel especially if I drive in perpetual construction zones of I-5 and I-405 in Los Angeles metropolitan.
Sophisticated Audi Traffic Jam Pilot is capped at 37 MPH while Autopilot is capped at 90 MPH.
Mercedes-Benz EQC Distronic doesn't have anything similar to Tesla's Navigation on Autopilot or 150 foot radius remote retrieval (summon).
It's true that there are still Autopilot crashes and deaths but I see no other brand is anywhere near the level of generalization for the mass as Tesla's.
Don't ignore the role you might play as an owner as an EV evangelist. I talk about my 3 often. I make a strong case, I think, for why 40k on a car that NEVER needs repairs belts chains check-ups oil emissions gas or plugs and will last 1 million miles. The time and money I save. The peace of mind that I won't have a $4,000 repair out of nowhere to fix a slipping transmission. The insane handling, quality and acceleration. I put people in the driver seat every chance I get. That I don't always point out it's a Performance, I take as a burden of sin I will be happy too bear.
Buy car and talk about it. To anyone who will stand still.
Tam
Well-Known Member
If you buy a car, you can enjoy it right away.
If you invest in its stock, there's no telling when it will go up or down or when exactly you need to cash it out for emergency.
Those who bought its $17 IPO in 2010 had to wait for a very long flat trading range for about 3 years.
Those who had patience since 2010 would be rewarded if they cashed out in 2017 when it peaked almost at $400.
Those who bought at its peak of $400 at that time and now need to cash out would lose almost half of the investment in only 2 years.
Each choice has its pros and cons.
I don't think the legacies can catch up so easily. Think about it. They have an entire culture built on ICE. They have generations of engineers and managers in layers of bureaucracy that is hostile top change instinctually. A lot of the expertise doesn't only not translate, it stops innovation.
Plus, re minimalist versus gadgety. Wtf. That's completely out of your butt, isn't it?
Tam
Well-Known Member
It is true about fit quality but does 100+ qualify them for being dinosaur for slow progress?
They don't even know how what to make with over-the-air update.
Tesla takes that advantage for its cars and its equipment including the latest update to 150 kW Supercharger rate for both cars and stations.
CarlK
Active Member
Absolutely. Do you take fit and quality over a car with all those new technology including computer interface, OTA update that continuously improve your car after you bought it and things like autopilot? I'm not even talking about FSD just NoA which no other car has and likely will have for a long time to come. Whenever and whatever FSD capability comes out your years old car will get it. What your car with nice fit and finish will do?
Does anyone know the so called fit and finish was invented by the Japanese not too long ago when they were not able to compete by performance or brand image? German cars were built like tanks with fit and finish to match too. That tactic worked somewhat but even with that German cars had always been considered more "premium" even before they caught up in the fit and finish area (while car itself became more dull). Most people know what is more important when buying an engineering product not a piece of apparel.
It's not that Tesla could not improve in this area but it's just not the priority of using its resources at this moment. There are a lot of better levers it can and need to pull. If that priority does not fit some of you people's there are always those old piece craps with even door gaps that can pass micrometer test you are able to buy.
CarlK
Active Member
People used to say competitions are coming but what competition we are seeing? Higher price but lower range and performance at low volume. None of them can even be close to Tesla's performance and efficiency. The more "competitions" there are the clearer it is of Tesla's lead.
Well i certainly hope you all are right ..Tesla has 10 months of cash. I hope they can stop the SCs from bleeding. They need a refresh on the interior and improvement on quality. Recently model x was voted least reliable car. More thank anything if they can make a car that starts with $2x,xxx and makes a profit that would be a game changer. even if the range was 150-200.
Part of this conversation has to be because the media is against EVs succeeding as it will bring down other business owned by the owners of media companies. That’s why all the press is negative,and all the social media is positive ( youtube etc). Big oil loses, traditional auto industry with sales and service model losses.
Part of this conversation has to be because the media is against EVs succeeding as it will bring down other business owned by the owners of media companies. That’s why all the press is negative,and all the social media is positive ( youtube etc). Big oil loses, traditional auto industry with sales and service model losses.
Not so.
At the Q1 rate, the 2.4 billion they just raised would last 10 months. Leaving them with the 2.2 billion they already had.
They will not be at the Q1 rate going forward.
The other thing to think about is yes the product is awesome...why has the demand dropped off so much..yess Q1 is always slow. They now have inventories...which is not a good thing. This goes against Tesla’s mission of not be a dealership and making cars build to order.
Also they raised the price of the car $400 why...are you hurting for margins that much. It had a really bad psychological effect to buyers.
Also 50% of all tesla’s are sold in california. June 2019...the federal rebate is going to $18xx. Essentially, in 2 weeks all cars are going up in price $18xx..is that going to further erode value perception.
Look guys...definitely a believer in Tesla and love the product, but these are all realties, that they need to address. Elon need to focus and get good help...he is running too many companies and is not able to really focus and fix the problems at Tesla..a ceo of a public company taking a puff of weed on video doesn’t really help your cause either. They need a guy like Tim cook to run operations. Or maybe if Tesla gets cheap enough $30billion...$aapl will just buy them...they got $200B in cash.
All thing s to consider
Also they raised the price of the car $400 why...are you hurting for margins that much. It had a really bad psychological effect to buyers.
Also 50% of all tesla’s are sold in california. June 2019...the federal rebate is going to $18xx. Essentially, in 2 weeks all cars are going up in price $18xx..is that going to further erode value perception.
Look guys...definitely a believer in Tesla and love the product, but these are all realties, that they need to address. Elon need to focus and get good help...he is running too many companies and is not able to really focus and fix the problems at Tesla..a ceo of a public company taking a puff of weed on video doesn’t really help your cause either. They need a guy like Tim cook to run operations. Or maybe if Tesla gets cheap enough $30billion...$aapl will just buy them...they got $200B in cash.
All thing s to consider
CarlK
Active Member
First quarter is a traditional slow quarter for all automakers because of the weather and holidays. There was also a model switch over for S/X likely with shutting down of those production lines. There were reports of production work force reduction mostly for S/X line during that time which seems to confirm that.
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