EAP -> FSD, because of original FSD is not going to happen for a very long time?

[SergeyUser]

This is obviously a speculation. But I think Tesla made the recent separation of features from EAP/FSD to AP/FSD for a much more trivial reason: to deliver something to FSD users this year. I mean, the way FSD is now defined is what was expected by most as EAP some time ago. Tesla seem to have no choice, but to redefine what FSD means, and the only way they figured it would be the least offending to anyone is to kill EAP, introduce AP and move most of the features to FSD. I think this is the most probable reason I can think of.

If I’m right, we all have to keep our expectations low for FSD for this year.

 

[run-the-joules]

I think the most probable reason is to increase uptake on the cheap versions of the car to compensate for the bad margin on them. People buying a $35-37k car aren't likely to drop $5k on AP, but they might drop $3k on it. Better to sell $3k licenses on 30% of 100,000 cars than $5k licenses on 10%.

So to compensate for the lower price, they re-gated some of the features to entice people a little further to step up to flavor country and get more than the basics. I'm honestly surprised NoA wasn't considered the first feature release to be considered an FSD feature in the first place, I've expected all along that "FSD" would start seeing features that are far from L4 (or even L3) but aren't offered to buyers who only have an autopilot/enhanced autopilot license. Doing that would allow them to say "See? It's a real feature" and start realizing some of the FSD money they have already.

 

[SergeyUser]

I agree they should have made NoA an FSD feature initially. Kind of ‘alpha version of FSD’.

 

[ngogas]

No such thing as fsd and Tesla is just tying to figure out what is in fsd. Save your money if you haven’t opt in. Wait till fsd is actually ironedout and released.

 

[dww12]

I think it’s the opposite. I think it is getting close... because Elon has said so, many times and from his description of how the Tesla chip is working. He has said definitively before the end of this year. I think from the initial release for Model 3 they have calculated the pain points for lots of buyers. Those who bought no AP to those who bought FSD and those who bought after the trial. I am sure they have crunched the numbers as to what will get the most people off the fence and I think they did a good job (a lot of people are going to buy this) with the exception of how they are treating those who bought FSD from the get go. There can’t be that many of them, throw them a $3,000 bone in Q3.

 

[SergeyUser]

dww12,

Just wow. No one will keep buying future features like FSD without at least checking what will be included. Tesla should become more responsible with what it promises to its customers.

 

[notAnExpert]

I think it’s the opposite. I think it is getting close... because Elon has said so, many times and from his description of how the Tesla chip is working. He has said definitively before the end of this year.

I don't know. Musk's history of FSD availability isn't stellar. And there isn't any demonstrable evidence that Tesla is at any advanced level with FSD.

In 2015, Musk said Tesla would have Level 4 autonomy in two years only that regulatory approval wouldn't be ready by then.
In 2017, Musk said “November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.”
As of two days ago, some features of EAP have been reframed as FSD with promise of traffic light detection and "Automatic City Driving" (not sure what that means) by the end of this year.
Until now, Tesla has not tested any autonomous driving on public streets in California.
Many people involved in autonomous driving technology don't believe Musk's claim of imminent FSD capability.

 

[ngogas]

Exactly. I’d wait for fsd to be reality.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Before the announcement a few of us predicted the demise of EAP.

I was one of them, but I didn't think they'd actually do it. I thought it was something they needed to do, but I didn't know if the financials worked for it.

The reason for this was Tesla didn't seem to have two code bases. They just had a much more advanced neural net that didn't work in HW2.5. At least not with frame rate, and complexity that it should have.

We also saw Tesla hitting the limitations of AP2 where certain features like Dash Cam, and Sentry mode simply don't work. So I think it was evident that they were hitting the limits.

So Tesla had to move over to HW3, and still grow features within EAP without upsetting current EAP/HW2+ owners.

How do you do that? You kill EAP all together for new vehicles, and you simply deliver a final build of it (not counting simple maintenance releases). Where that final build takes care of the remaining features. (like unconfirmed lane changes).

Then you give people with EAP some incentives to get them to upgrade to FSD. Tesla did that by killing EAP, and charging $2K for the update from EAP to FSD.

Of course it's not really a full upgrade from EAP to FSD as they moved features from EAP to FSD. So that $2K isn't what I'd call a discount, but a fair price for additional features. It's also a great price since it should come with a HW3 upgrade.

From a technical standpoint I think it makes a lot of sense. It's still a bad name, but at least they have room to grow.

 

[UngaBunga1989]

I think what we are also experiencing is the whole tech community’s (not just Tesla’s) that true autonomous driving is much farther out than everyone believed two or three years ago...

 

[SergeyUser]

I just figured the best way for Tesla out of the mess:
1. Reimburse all FSD purchases;
2. Kill FSD until it is ready;
3. Use Enhanced Autopilot term as a name of what will be released this year;
4. Give early access to new features to previous FSD owners;
5. Charge 1-2k$ for anyone willing to upgrade to hardware 3.0.

This will of course require to acknowledge that FSD will not be ready this year. I doubt EM will do that, of course.

 

[SergeyUser]

Stock will tank, Tesla will loose money. But it is all short-term. Long-term faith will be restored, and everyone will continue believing that Tesla will do the right thing.