Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[S4WRXTTCS]

Yes. “No one ever washed a rental,” right? The problem with all of these shared vehicle plans is they ignore the fact that a significant portion of the population are inconsiderate slobs and sociopaths.

How long until most of the robo taxis have slashed upholstery, graffiti on the seats and crap (both metaphorical and literal) on the floor? Yes, this is why we can’t have nice things.

We're entering into a new era of employee-free businesses, and robotaxis.

Robotaxis are still a few years out from major metro areas, and aren't economically all that viable for rural areas. But, even today there are employee-free businesses that have to deal with drunk humans.

My bet is we'll see a pattern of AI getting better at keeping an eye at a situation, and humans trying to get more creative in defeating the systems.

Here is a good example of what's happening now.

High-tech security can’t stop theft, frisky patrons at employee-free businesses

Fledgling chains of high-tech gyms and recreational spots that don’t have on-site employees are cropping up nationwide – and some are grappling with shoplifting and randy customers. Their novel bus…

nypost.com

 

[Goose66]

And I'm not kidding about the robots- I'd bet money in Elons mind they're the perfect accompaniment to robotaxis... they can plug/unplug the supercharger cables for the RTs, AND clean out the interior if needed.

He just has to make a child-sized version of the Tesla robot to fit in the frunk.

 

[Knightshade]

He just has to make a child-sized version of the Tesla robot to fit in the frunk.

Naah- they just leave them stationed at superchargers. Bonus- the bots can keep themselves charged there too.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Naah- they just leave them stationed at superchargers. Bonus- the bots can keep themselves charged there too.

I look forwards to the day Elon tries to get approval for them to install "not a flame thrower" as an arm attachment to a Tesla Bot to keep tweakers from stealing copper from a Supercharger.

 

[Supcom]

I thought they were being sarcastic.

Yes. I was referring to vandal resistant robotaxis with hard plastic seats will not attract urban customers who currently pay the premium cost to maintain a vehicle. They may be fine for tourists who don't want to rent a car in an unfamiliar city, but for residents, this type of vehicle will be as attractive as riding the bus.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Yes. I was referring to vandal resistant robotaxis with hard plastic seats will not attract urban customers who currently pay the premium cost to maintain a vehicle. They may be fine for tourists who don't want to rent a car in an unfamiliar city, but for residents, this type of vehicle will be as attractive as riding the bus.

I don't expect them to be luxurious, but due to the controlled use case I don't expect them to be terrible.

Public buses (in the US) have significant issues because of all the crazy stuff that happens on a bus. It's not just the inconsiderate people, but physical/sexual assaults along with all the crazies. It's also the overcrowding, and the high likelihood that the person sitting next to you is going to smell bad.

Robotaxis have significant advantages like having non-pooled options, and high end "business class" variants for people with money.

 

[Supcom]

Robotaxis have significant advantages like having non-pooled options, and high end "business class" variants for people with money.

You mean like existing taxis, ubers, car services and limos, right? These already exist, yet people in urban areas still own cars. And, once robotaxis come into existence in varying classes of service, the people who own cars today will still be owning cars. Because car ownership provides those people with something that the existing car hire services do not. And taking the driver out of the vehicle is unlikely to change that.

 

[EVNow]

You mean like existing taxis, ubers, car services and limos, right? These already exist, yet people in urban areas still own cars. And, once robotaxis come into existence in varying classes of service, the people who own cars today will still be owning cars. Because car ownership provides those people with something that the existing car hire services do not. And taking the driver out of the vehicle is unlikely to change that.

I think one thing that can really bring down ownership is if it can be cheap enough to replace the clunker. A very large % of American working class can’t afford cars and yet are forced to have one to travel for work.

Think of all the people making < ~$25/hr.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

You mean like existing taxis, ubers, car services and limos, right? These already exist, yet people in urban areas still own cars. And, once robotaxis come into existence in varying classes of service, the people who own cars today will still be owning cars. Because car ownership provides those people with something that the existing car hire services do not. And taking the driver out of the vehicle is unlikely to change that.

Taxis, car services, and limos existed before Uber.

So what did Uber bring that entirely flipped the existing transportation solutions on their heads to such a degree that Uber increased traffic?

What it brought was an app based approach that simplified it, and it brought the price down significantly. It allowed more people in metro areas to function without a vehicle.

Uber really wasn't built around a sustainable business model though. It leveraged losing investor money, and low driver earnings to flood the market with cheap fares.

Robotaxis are a way for fleet corporations to offer a more sustainable, and consistent product to consumers. They also offer a lot more capability on creating efficient systems as they don't have to worry about the whims of drivers.

Robotaxis can also work together to optimize a traffic situation. Things like letting another robo taxi in for example.

Also keep in mind that it's not just transporting people, but food as well. Would you rather select Uber eats for your hamburger and fries or would you choose some robo delivery service? I'd choose the robo delivery service as I don't want anyone eating half my meal on the way to my house.

Will people stop owning cars? It entirely depends on the people and what they're situation is.

Like I enjoy hiking, and other recreational activity so I can't see not having a car. I also can't see parents not having a car as having a car is pretty vital to having a kid. Some people will simply go from 2 cars to 1 car. The same thing can be said for an EV where people get it if it fits their use case.

Taking the driver out of vehicle completely changes the economics of it as it eliminates a large cost, and increases vehicle utilization. It also increases reliability. Lack of reliability of alternatives is why a lot of people have cars. I'm not going to jeopardize my employment by relying on a bus.

 

[Sigma4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503171228752052224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503171794932543494

Best thing about this second tweet is it confirms Tesla has a goal of adding a large amount of new entrants into the beta. If they are even slightly considering 95 then I know us peasants with a 98+ over the past 2 months are a shoe-in for 10.11 or 10.12.

 

[Acisplat]

If the criteria actually gets lowered to 95, then they must have a lot of faith in this release

 

[Knightshade]

So what did Uber bring that entirely flipped the existing transportation solutions on their heads to such a degree that Uber increased traffic?

What it brought was an app based approach that simplified it, and it brought the price down significantly. It allowed more people in metro areas to function without a vehicle.

If that were true car ownership rates in areas they operate would have declined.

They didn't. (they actually increased slightly).

 

[momo3605]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503171228752052224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503171794932543494

Best thing about this second tweet is it confirms Tesla has a goal of adding a large amount of new entrants into the beta. If they are even slightly considering 95 then I know us peasants with a 98+ over the past 2 months are a shoe-in for 10.11 or 10.12.

Can anyone ELI5 the first bullet point in the release notes about Vector lanes? Elon claims above that it’s a major architectural improvement

 

[EVNow]

If that were true car ownership rates in areas they operate would have declined.

They didn't. (they actually increased slightly).

But how do you check the "area" ?

For eg. if you look at SanFrancisco - the usage of Uber might be highest by people who don't even live in the city. They could be living elsewhere and use Uber instead of buying cars.

Has SF Bay area as a whole seen any change in ownership % ?

 

[Knightshade]

But how do you check the "area" ?

For eg. if you look at SanFrancisco - the usage of Uber might be highest by people who don't even live in the city. They could be living elsewhere and use Uber instead of buying cars.

Has SF Bay area as a whole seen any change in ownership % ?

Uber and Lyft operating in US cities linked to rises in car ownership

When ride-sharing companies including Uber and Lyft begin operating in a city, there is a slight increase in car ownership on average, a study of US urban areas suggests

www.newscientist.com

Jeremy Michalek at Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania and his colleagues analysed trends in vehicle ownership in 224 urban areas across the US between 2011 and 2017 to investigate how these were influenced if a ride-sharing company – either Uber or Lyft – began operating in the area.

the team found that the trend for vehicle ownership per capita in urban areas changed following the first entry of a ride-sharing company. On average, across areas and through time, there was an increase of 0.7 per cent in car ownership – the increase was larger in car-dependent cities, and in cities with a faster rate of population growth.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

If that were true car ownership rates in areas they operate would have declined.

They didn't. (they actually increased slightly).

Uber never achieved a level of reliability of both functionality, and cost that really would really really cause car ownership rates to go down. Plus there is that whole weirdness of having a personal chauffeur that is a human being.

When I say it allowed people to function without a car I mean things like alcoholics wanting to get their drink on, but not drive drunk. Or people with anxiety issues not wanting to drive in the city can simply park, and take an Uber.

I've known plenty of 20 something or 30 somethings that get by without a car by relying on a mix of public transportation, walking, biking, and ubering. Where if it wasn't for uber they'd have to seriously think about getting a car.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Uber and Lyft operating in US cities linked to rises in car ownership

When ride-sharing companies including Uber and Lyft begin operating in a city, there is a slight increase in car ownership on average, a study of US urban areas suggests

www.newscientist.com

If vehicle ownership is going up, but driver licenses are going down then who's buying all the vehicles?

Is it really people who don't have a car or crazy people like me with 3 vehicles all to themselves? Or maybe its the increase in single people.

Here is an article on the decline of the drivers license, but this is well known so there are a lot of articles on the topic.

The Decline of the Driver's License

Fewer people of all ages are getting them, and it’s not quite clear why.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[EVNow]

Here is an article on the decline of the drivers license, but this is well known so there are a lot of articles on the topic.

This decline is what really surprises me.

i had no idea about this a couple of years back. But out of the blue someone in my team asked everyone how many of us had licenses. Less than half 20 somethings had a license compared all the oldies.

 

[Terminator857]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503211737046085634

Andrej Karpathy: favorite item: "Upgraded modeling of lane geometry from dense rasters (“bag of points”) to an autoregressive decoder that directly predicts and connects “vector space” lanes point by point using a transformer neural network."
"This enables us to predict crossing lanes, allows computationally cheaper and less error-prone post-processing, and paves the way for predicting many other signals and their relationships jointly and end-to-end."
TLDR: a GPT-like Transformer is now predicting the lanes and their connectivity. This "direct to vector space" framework allows predictions to be jointly coherent (due to sequential conditioning) and v easily used by planner (due to sparsity). Excellent work from the team!

 

[Terminator857]

Release notes translated:

Tesla FSD Beta v10.11 release notes suggest strong improvements ahead of Canada expansion - techAU

Looking for the latest news, reviews, and insights on technology in Australia? Look no further than our tech website! From the newest gadgets to the latest software releases, we've got you covered with up-to-date information and expert analysis. Stay ahead of the curve and explore the world of...

techau.com.au