Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[terranx]

Who buys stock based on the promise of what is basically advanced auto-parking?

That doesn't make any sense. If Elon wanted to pump the stock he would lie about bigger things.

Tesla's investors. As a rule, they're generally morons. He lies about having hardware and software capable of having full self driving, part of which includes advanced auto parking. That 100% impacts Tesla's valuation because their valuation is based on it being a "tech" company.

Hell just look at the most recent earning's call. The actual company's financials are god awful. And their outlook is dismal - they have literally nothing in the pipeline. But because he made some claims about robotaxis and AI, the price shot up.

 

[willow_hiller]

Hell just look at the most recent earning's call. The actual company's financials are god awful.

Compared to Tesla's previous growth rate, maybe. But compared to any other EV manufacturer? Tesla is still leaps and bounds ahead of the competition.

Take free cash flow for e.g.:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786648520360927514

Also, if Elon was just lying about progress, the "boy who cried wolf" effect would take hold eventually. But they have made a ton of progress, despite Elon's unrealistic timelines.

 

[Goose66]

Definitely! Seems like it could potentially be a few years. I'd guess less, but who knows.

A little history:
…

Who knows? Well, certainly not Elon. He’s made that abundantly clear over the last 9 years.

 

[jeewee3000]

Tesla's investors. As a rule, they're generally morons. He lies about having hardware and software capable of having full self driving, part of which includes advanced auto parking. That 100% impacts Tesla's valuation because their valuation is based on it being a "tech" company.

Hell just look at the most recent earning's call. The actual company's financials are god awful. And their outlook is dismal - they have literally nothing in the pipeline. But because he made some claims about robotaxis and AI, the price shot up.

You lost me at "nothing in the pipeline".

 

[spacecoin]

Who buys stock based on the promise of what is basically advanced auto-parking?

That doesn't make any sense. If Elon wanted to pump the stock he would lie about bigger things.

Like robotaxi 2020 you mean? Elon will clearly say and do anything to keep that market value from deflating. Core auto is valued at $60-70 by most analysts. $20-30 for everything else. The rest is dreams about robots and autonomy.

 

[willow_hiller]

Like robotaxi 2020 you mean? Elon will clearly say and do anything to keep that market value from deflating. Core auto is valued at $60-70 by most analysts. $20-30 for everything else. The rest is dreams about robots and autonomy.

Where's the evidence that he's lying, though? If he was just lying about every planned milestone to keep the stock afloat, he would need to continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things. But instead, he just keeps trying to put a timeline to the same incredibly ambitious task, and failing to meet his own deadlines.

He obviously lacks a lot of the understanding of exactly what his employees are doing in their attempts to achieve autonomy. But it just doesn't make any sense to assume that Elon is purposely telling the same lie over and over.

 

[spacecoin]

Where's the evidence that he's lying, though? If he was just lying about every planned milestone to keep the stock afloat, he would need to continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things. But instead, he just keeps trying to put a timeline to the same incredibly ambitious task, and failing to meet his own deadlines.

He obviously lacks a lot of the understanding of exactly what his employees are doing in their attempts to achieve autonomy. But it just doesn't make any sense to assume that Elon is purposely telling the same lie over and over.

So you don't consider Optimus and dedicated robotaxi "continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things" when you have clocked ZERO driverless miles?

Had this company had functional governance, he would have been fired in 2022 when buying Twitter, and again when publicly threatening to start a competing AI business outside of Tesla, and again when he did it.

This level of public failure in governance is unprecedented in corporate history. Zero credibility.

ELON FSD TIMELINE

 

[willow_hiller]

So you don't consider Optimus and dedicated robotaxi "continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things" when you have clocked ZERO driverless miles?

Had this company had functional governance, he would have been fired in 2022 when buying Twitter, and again when publicly threatening to start a competing AI business outside of Tesla, and again when he did it.

This level of public failure in governance is unprecedented in corporate history. Zero credibility.

ELON FSD TIMELINE

If you look across Elon Musk's companies, a common thread is that he doesn't actually do anything completely novel. Tesla didn't invent electric vehicles or humanoid robots or even specially-made vehicles for robotaxis. Neuralink is not the first brain interface.

What Elon specializes in doing is taking technologies that others have already invented but have been unable to scale for one reason or another. Tesla's real value-add is fixing the reasons for why those products don't scale, and innovating in how they are manufactured and used.

So in that way, Optimus and the dedicated robotaxi are not outlandish at all. They're proven technologies that Tesla has the capability to scale like no one else.

 

[spacecoin]

What Elon specializes in doing is taking technologies that others have already invented but have been unable to scale for one reason or another. Tesla's real value-add is fixing the reasons for why those products don't scale, and innovating in how they are manufactured and used.

I mostly agree with this in terms of cars and rockets. This is why I think he's failing utterly on the below.

So in that way, Optimus and the dedicated robotaxi are not outlandish at all. They're proven technologies that Tesla has the capability to scale like no one else.

Just lol. "proven techonologies"... Yeah riiiight...

 

[willow_hiller]

Just lol. "proven techonologies"... Yeah riiiight...

I'm talking about building the physical objects. You claimed both Optimus and a dedicated robotaxi were outlandish escalations. But they're both just manufacturing challenges, and don't represent any additional software hurdles beyond what Tesla has been trying to achieve for years.

Actually achieving autonomous behavior with either of them is a separate argument. But there's no real escalation between achieving autonomy with the existing fleet of vehicles, and building a separate dedicated vehicle for autonomy.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm talking about building the physical objects. You claimed both Optimus and a dedicated robotaxi were outlandish escalations. But they're both just manufacturing challenges, and don't represent any additional software hurdles beyond what Tesla has been trying to achieve for years.

Actually achieving autonomous behavior with either of them is a separate argument. But there's no real escalation between achieving autonomy with the existing fleet of vehicles, and building a separate dedicated vehicle for autonomy.

I take your points in general, but I'd say vision-only RT is an escalation from what actually exists in the real world today and absolutely represents a software hurdle nobody's gotten over yet (and Tesla themselves have failed to get over many many years after claiming they would).

 

[spacecoin]

I'm talking about building the physical objects. You claimed both Optimus and a dedicated robotaxi were outlandish escalations. But they're both just manufacturing challenges

I think the technical definition of the above would be "moving the goal posts".

Tesla PR: This is a humanoid robot. It will do actual work in Tesla's factories next year.

Hidden context: "as a counterweight in an elevator".

The statement is true, so therefore Elon is not pumping the stock?

Does this ring a bell: "Full Self Driving"
Hidden context (not really. supervised).

 

[willow_hiller]

I think the technical definition of the above would be "moving the goal posts".

Tesla PR: This is a humanoid robot. It will do actual work in Tesla's factories next year.

Hidden context: "as a counterweight in an elevator".

The statement is true, so therefore Elon is not pumping the stock?

I'm not moving the goalposts, you're changing the topic.

The question was: is there proof that Elon is deliberately lying when he makes ambitious timelines and fails to meet them?

And so far, you've failed to produce any proof.

 

[spacecoin]

I'm not moving the goalposts, you're changing the topic.

The question was: is there proof that Elon is deliberately lying when he makes ambitious timelines and fails to meet them?

And so far, you've failed to produce any proof.

So your reasoning is that Elon is not lying. He's just incredibly stupid, wrong and naive over ten years? And that happens to align with his goal of inflating the share price? I mean, it's not impossible just very improbable...

However, I'm thinking a man with his resources would have access to researchers that can explain the current limitations of ML and things like Moravec's paradox to him. If he can't afford it you can send him this link. Yann isn't saying anything controversial here:

 

[Daniel in SD]

Just lol. "proven techonologies"... Yeah riiiight...

Useless humanoid robots and useless autonomous vehicles are proven technologies. Tesla is just taking the next logical step of bringing them to mass production.

 

[aronth5]

So you don't consider Optimus and dedicated robotaxi "continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things" when you have clocked ZERO driverless miles?

Had this company had functional governance, he would have been fired in 2022 when buying Twitter, and again when publicly threatening to start a competing AI business outside of Tesla, and again when he did it.

This level of public failure in governance is unprecedented in corporate history. Zero credibility.

ELON FSD TIMELINE

How would rate Elon's performance at SpaceX?

 

[spacecoin]

How would rate Elon's performance at SpaceX?

Hard to say. I don’t know if he’s there anymore. He's clearly been instrumental in setting the risk profile and perseverance though.

Shotwell seems great. The success depends on starship. Elon has bet the company on it. That’s known matter and doesn’t require major scientific breakthroughs though. I give him 80% chance of success there within this decade and 10% on robotaxi. 1% on the humanoid.

 

[kabin]

Where's the evidence that he's lying, though? If he was just lying about every planned milestone to keep the stock afloat, he would need to continually raise the bar, and promise more and more outlandish things. But instead, he just keeps trying to put a timeline to the same incredibly ambitious task, and failing to meet his own deadlines.

He obviously lacks a lot of the understanding of exactly what his employees are doing in their attempts to achieve autonomy. But it just doesn't make any sense to assume that Elon is purposely telling the same lie over and over.

There's plenty of evidence of Elon raising the bar and promising more and more outlandish things. He can't help himself plus he's been rewarded for it.

 

[kabin]

Elon is scheduled to appear this at this week's Annual Global Conference. It's probably a good bet he offers the same ridiculous promises and at lease one new doozy.

Livestream - 2024 Global Conference

Livestream the 27th Annual Global Conference, presenting "Shaping a Shared Future." Join luminaries like Queen Rania Al Abdullah, Elon Musk, William J. Clinton, and more as they discuss critical global issues. Tune in from any device for insightful conversations on geopolitics, AI, climate...

milkeninstitute.org

 

[willow_hiller]

Useless humanoid robots and useless autonomous vehicles are proven technologies. Tesla is just taking the next logical step of bringing them to mass production.

I know you're trying to be sarcastic, but you've unintentionally hit the nail on the head.

This:

And this:

Are both established technologies. They've been developed for years. But they're both useless primarily because they're just small-scale productions and have no roadmap to be brought to market at scale.