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They got pretty close to 90% success!
I still want to know why this turn is impossible to simulate.
At one point we were told the NNs knew when training data was simulated and therefore didn't improve and more recently they say simulations are very good. Maybe it's still a bit of both or the team isn't able to create good simulations?

Six months ago the narrative was we didn't need to train the end to end NN, it just knew what to do. Now they're back to overfitting that which doesn't work well.
 
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FSD-estivus for the rest of us. Hilarious how they characterized Omar's yapper!
:)

Screenshot 2024-03-09 083203.png
 
But it’s great for a driver assist. It makes the turn so much easier and more relaxing. 😛
Not one single time have I wanted FSD to take my unprotected left. It is definitely way more stressful than just doing it myself, even when traffic is light.

I don’t want to be the fool who got t-boned and died while letting FSD try to take a trivial turn. High stakes.

I will say it is way way better at taking the turn than it used to be. Probably 30% success rate, largely dictated by traffic volume.
 
Not one single time have I wanted FSD to take my unprotected left. It is definitely way more stressful than just doing it myself, even when traffic is light.

I don’t want to be the fool who got t-boned and died while letting FSD try to take a trivial turn. High stakes.

I will say it is way way better at taking the turn than it used to be. Probably 30% success rate, largely dictated by traffic volume.
You are a well known enemy of The Mission.
 
Six months ago the narrative was we didn't need to train the end to end NN, it just knew what to do. Now they're back to overfitting that which doesn't work well.
With respect, I don't think this is the correct summary. What we were told in the original Elon/Ashok video, and AFAIK is still true,
Was that the key to everything is lots of training.

They didn't say the NN didn't need to be trained and just knew what to do. They said they didn't explicitly program it to recognize and label objects like stop signs, traffic lights, pedestrians etc. Nor did they program it how to drive - all that ability comes out of the extensive E2E training.

In the video, when it did make a mistake, they immediately said that it would be solved by more training of similar scenarios. More of the same. So talking about needing more training today is not a case of "back to overfitting"; it's perfectly consistent with the original explanation of v12.

I should add that I haven't seen Elon deny that overfitting can occur. He said that the first selectively released version needed more training outside of California and more training in bad weather. That's essentially an admission that it was overfit for California.
 
They got pretty close to 90% success!
I still want to know why this turn is impossible to simulate.
Yes - I'd put V11 in that ULT as better than average humans.

More importantly that made FSD actually be able to handle simpler ULTs that it could barely ever do earlier. Now I've > 90% success rate on all my (admittedly simpler) ULTs.