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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

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#7,621
It was the same price in Q3 2022 as it is today- $12,000 (though subscriptions were still $199 then, and just dropped to $99 now).

EAP was reintroduced in EMEA early Q1 2021, and the US late Q1 2022- so the last several quarters of data in the link I gave were after EAP was available both places..... Take rate in the US did not change significantly from EAP coming back (Q1 and Q2 2022 were both 14.5%)... In Europe harder to say, it went down Q4 20 to Q1 21, but then back up (above even Q4-20) in Q2 21.

It's owner-reported data, so I guess believe or dismiss as you wish based on that
 
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#7,622
Knightshade said:
It's owner-reported data, so I guess believe or dismiss as you wish based on that
Click to expand...
Yeah gonna be pretty biased, and the direction is clear. 5% seems about right for recently with mass market adoption.

Knightshade said:
Take rate in the US did not change significantly from EAP coming back (Q1 and Q2 2022 were both 14.5%).
Click to expand...
Kind of surprising! Wonder if that held up.

Could also be partially due to biased sample but doesn’t really explain that. May just be a case of all or nothing. I guess big scheme of things EAP is pretty lacking in value so after thinking about it I guess that makes sense. $6k is a lot to pay for auto lane change and some silly features.

Is the green light chime for all vehicles now? That’s literally the most valuable feature of all.
 
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#7,624
It will be interesting to see if wide-ODD L2 (supervised fsd) will be a thing that the masses appreciate or if it will go down the route of 3D-TV, VR, drones, 3D-printing etc.

I'm not saying that it won't be useful to some, but I question the mass appeal as long as the driver still need to watch the road at all times and be prepared to jump in at any time.

The value proposition over standard AP or what other vendors offer isn't massive, and I personally don't believe Tesla's current system will become autonomous.
 
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#7,625
Knightshade said:
It was the same price in Q3 2022 as it is today- $12,000 (though subscriptions were still $199 then, and just dropped to $99 now).

EAP was reintroduced in EMEA early Q1 2021, and the US late Q1 2022- so the last several quarters of data in the link I gave were after EAP was available both places..... Take rate in the US did not change significantly from EAP coming back (Q1 and Q2 2022 were both 14.5%)... In Europe harder to say, it went down Q4 20 to Q1 21, but then back up (above even Q4-20) in Q2 21.

It's owner-reported data, so I guess believe or dismiss as you wish based on that
Click to expand...
Wasn’t there a pre-covid times company number of FSD take rate that was 8%, from either a conference call or some scrappy extrapolation of FSD deferred revenues, vs. FSD capable vehicles sold that someone came up with and then essentially got EM or the CFO to ‘confirm’?
 
#7,626
tivoboy said:
Wasn’t there a pre-covid times company number of FSD take rate that was 8%, from either a conference call or some scrappy extrapolation of FSD deferred revenues, vs. FSD capable vehicles sold that someone came up with and then essentially got EM or the CFO to ‘confirm’?
Click to expand...
What is this mysterious PRE-Covid times you speak of? I thought the world began on March 1, 2020.
 
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#7,627
tivoboy said:
Wasn’t there a pre-covid times company number of FSD take rate that was 8%, from either a conference call or some scrappy extrapolation of FSD deferred revenues, vs. FSD capable vehicles sold that someone came up with and then essentially got EM or the CFO to ‘confirm’?
Click to expand...


Not that I can find at a super quick glance... I did find Elon refusing to answer the attach rate on the Q4 '21 call though- be curious if anyone does have such a reference though.
 
#7,628
From 2022 Q4 Tesla report, approximately 400K have purchased FSD in U.S. and Canada.

From Dec 29, 2022:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762
Quote: FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total

23% purchased FSD according to Jan 23 article:
Quote: ... a surprise to learn that over 285,000 customers in North America have purchased FSD.

I got this info using Anthropic Claude Opus: Claude
Prompt: What percentage of Tesla buyers purchase FSD? Links or references for more info are appreciated.
 
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#7,629
DanCar said:
From 2022 Q4 Tesla report, approximately 400K have purchased FSD in U.S. and Canada.

From Dec 29, 2022:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1608552555822325762
Quote: FSD Beta, reaching 285k cars total

23% purchased FSD according to Jan 23 article:
Quote: ... a surprise to learn that over 285,000 customers in North America have purchased FSD.
Click to expand...


Since that # comes well beyond the time subscriptions were available I don't think that's actually useful for "purchase FSD" just "purchased access to FSD"

The second group would include subscriptions.
 
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#7,631
Knightshade said:
Since that # comes well beyond the time subscriptions were available I don't think that's actually useful for "purchase FSD" just "purchased access to FSD"

The second group would include subscriptions.
Click to expand...
AI has cracked the nut.

Claude says 60% of purchases in Q4 2022 included the full $15k FSD package. "It's important to note that these figures only represent the percentage of customers who opt to purchase the full FSD package upfront, and do not include those who may later subscribe to the FSD service."

I stand corrected. The above facts are detailed in their Q4 2022 earnings report, according to Claude.
 
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#7,632
Knightshade said:
Not that I can find at a super quick glance... I did find Elon refusing to answer the attach rate on the Q4 '21 call though- be curious if anyone does have such a reference though.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it was definitely before that.. pre Jan 2020, since I was IN the GYM and I have’t been IN a gym since then (built one at home, saves a TON of time). I know where I was standing and what workout I was doing, can see the mirror and the Roman curl stand. I was listening to an afternoon conference call, so it was also when Tesla HQ was still in CA.

I know, sounds crazy, that’s just the way my mind works.

I’ll scan the conference call transcripts from 2018 and 2019. See what I can maybe find.
 
#7,633
https://twitter.com/x/status/1586356451639189504
1713034570311.png
 
#7,636
Elon says real world video is better than synthetic video.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1779608506796261795
Elon replying to a comment from Jim Fan which Jim's comments are interesting. He is suggesting that Grok will make FSD significantly better. Too bad grok won't fit in anyone's FSD computer.
Quoting Jim:
Tesla FSD v13 will likely be grokking language tokens. What excites me the most about Grok-1.5V is the potential to solve edge cases in self-driving. Using language for "chain of thought" will help the car break down a complex scenario, reason with rules and counterfactuals, and explain its decisions. What Grok-1.5V can help is to lift pixel->action mapping to pixel->language->action instead.

With @Tesla_AI's highly mature data pipeline, it is not hard to label tons of edge cases with high-quality human explanation traces, and finetune Grok to be far better than GPT-4V and Gemini for multimodal FSD reasoning.
 
#7,638
#7,639
DanCar said:
Seen a couple of reports that says Elon is prioritizing robotaxi and FSD over model 2.
electrek.co

Tesla puts '$25,000 electric car' codenamed NV9 on back burner despite what Elon Musk said

Electrek can confirm that Tesla indeed put its upcoming ‘$25,000 electric car, sometimes referred to as ‘Model 2’, on the...
electrek.co electrek.co
Since the Robotaxi and model 2 share the same platform, I don't agree with somethings the article states.
Click to expand...
yeah. because L5 robotaxis without steering wheel are just a few months/ years away ... meanwhile FSD "supervised" (L2) still curbs wheels in tight corners and cameras get blinded by the sun....
 
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#7,640
texas_star_TM3 said:
yeah. because L5 robotaxis without steering wheel are just a few months/ years away ... meanwhile FSD "supervised" (L2) still curbs wheels in tight corners and cameras get blinded by the sun....
Click to expand...


FWIW I don't think L5 is remotely close... but I've also not seen FSD fail out to TAKE CONTROL NOW due to sun glare in a couple years now.
 
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