Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Saw a video of a new automotive lens and sensor cleaner. It sprays a little jet of fluid on the lens/sensor and spins it rapidly. Instant clean sensor. Not sure they even need the fluid.
Pretty cool.
Pretty cool.
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Elon Musk: EAP solved, on track for FSD completion in 2019 (No one else is close!)
- Thread starter Bladerskb
- Start date
That's exactly what it means. Present tense description is not future tense prediction.
CarlK
Active Member
It's all about neural net machine learning capability. Tesla is the only company that has hundreds of thousands cars on the road to collect machine learning data. That's planned for many years ago when Tesla put sensors in every car it sells whether you purchase the option or not. So far it has already accumulated 10 billion miles of data. No one else even has a plan to do the same.
I'm skeptical here. Unless Tesla is ponying up huge amounts of money to pull data over LTE, I'm not buying that they have actually captured 10 billion miles of usable driving data. Tesla is definitely not pulling that kind of data over wifi. My guess is the 10 billion is MAYBE telemetry data and some basic vehicle statistics. There is no way they are pulling miles and miles of autopilot data or some sort of "shadow mode" information from the entire fleet. Folks would be seeing gigabytes of wifi traffic every night as a result of their cars sending data to Tesla, and that is not happening. Tesla probably takes snippets of driving data and camera footage here and there, that is it.
The notion that they have millions/billions of miles from the fleet feeding a library of driving data for the purpose of machine learning, I don't buy it.
CarlK
Active Member
Even Waymo may not be as far ahead as Tesla in "general" autonomous driving technology. Waymo only runs limited number of test cars in some selected areas. The purpose is to eventually run self driving cars in those areas for driverless taxi or ride hailing service. Only Tesla is after the product that you can buy and have it to drive itself anywhere in the country.
I owned a P85, a P90D and now drive a P100DL. The MoblEye version worked the best as far as AP is concerned. I was told by the local Tesla salesman that my P100DL won't get a computer update when available. In fact, he told me that if I take delivery on my Model 3s now, I won't be able to upgrade them later to AP3. As a result, I will wait for the new computer hardware (AP3) before taking delivery on my Model 3s.
In what areas does Tesla run its autonomous cars for testing on public roads?
You have looked at the CA disengagement reports for Tesla vs. Google/Waymo, right? And, you've seen some of Waymo's numbers, right?
Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2017
Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2016
Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2015
Waymo and GM still lead the pack in California’s new self-driving report cards
Waymo’s autonomous cars have driven 8 million miles on public roads
FWIW, Waymo's already been doing the bolded part in Phoenix since mid-2017: Waymo begins first public on-demand self-driving service test in Arizona
You talking about what Wamyo has?
This bird poop GIF shows Google is sweating the details of its self-driving cars
Interesting, because that is the exact opposite, what Musk said in the latest CC.
The problem with FSD isn't the hardware, it's the software. If they had a software load that could do FSD with any hardware, they could then either work on minimizing the hardware needed, or if not possible, adding more hardware to the car. Once you get something running, optimizing it is a whole lot easier.
The hardware is going to have to be selected based on what the software needs, not the reverse. As it is now, they don't seem to be able to do FSD at all on any hardware or software.
I never get the non believers. If I can drive a car in the rain with one eye closed surely a computer eventually can too! I do not need radar, radar is only a backup supporting device that eventually is becoming less important.
Also the thing about the cameras becoming dirty. I've never washed my cameras and still AP work ok. The only vulnerable cameras are the front cameras on the windshield which has its own defroster and is reached by the wiper. The pillar cameras never get junk directly on them and only rain that is blown past it which even keeps it clean. The rear facing cameras can become more dirty in some regions in the world but here the Dutch climate washing my car once a month if probably enough to keep these clean and so far I haven't even actively washed the lenses and never got a message that visibility was limited.
FSD will probably like how I envision AI advancements. Suddenly it will be there while most would think it would still take a long time to achieve and then the genie is out of the bottle. It could very well be that an AI advancement will have a huge impact on FSD development.
Maybe Tesla won't be the first with commercialized FSD but it will likely be the first with the largest FSD fleet and that with very low cost hardware.
All Tesla's with AP2+ wiring will be able to get a (paid) hardware upgrade where current AP2.5 FSD payers will get that package first and free. It suddenly makes that car you have for years be recycled into a super new environment friendly car that makes everyone amazed that this "old" car is capable of such a thing. What is not to like about that idea?
Also the thing about the cameras becoming dirty. I've never washed my cameras and still AP work ok. The only vulnerable cameras are the front cameras on the windshield which has its own defroster and is reached by the wiper. The pillar cameras never get junk directly on them and only rain that is blown past it which even keeps it clean. The rear facing cameras can become more dirty in some regions in the world but here the Dutch climate washing my car once a month if probably enough to keep these clean and so far I haven't even actively washed the lenses and never got a message that visibility was limited.
FSD will probably like how I envision AI advancements. Suddenly it will be there while most would think it would still take a long time to achieve and then the genie is out of the bottle. It could very well be that an AI advancement will have a huge impact on FSD development.
Maybe Tesla won't be the first with commercialized FSD but it will likely be the first with the largest FSD fleet and that with very low cost hardware.
All Tesla's with AP2+ wiring will be able to get a (paid) hardware upgrade where current AP2.5 FSD payers will get that package first and free. It suddenly makes that car you have for years be recycled into a super new environment friendly car that makes everyone amazed that this "old" car is capable of such a thing. What is not to like about that idea?
You have a lot of confusion over many points.
It has been pointed out many times how disingenuous it is to compare a commercially available system to those that are not and yet you keep doing it.
Then you start talking about estimates being wrong. What does accuracy of estimates have to do with what companies accomplish. Tesla and SpaceX provide hyper-optimistic estimates, miss them, but still beat the rest of the industry.
Did your elementary school teacher grade you on guessing how well you’d be able to do on a test? Did your track coach give medals to the ones who made the closest prediction to the times they ran? Exactly when did this unusual fascination with estimate accuracy first appear in your life?
Kant.Ing
Member
Yeah right , how about when Elon says in Twitter that off ramp on ramp is available for all of North America , 3 weeks ago , and it's still not available to Canada Model S, X, 3? He lived in Canada and is dating a Canadian. Now try and tell me he doesnt know that ALL NA means Mexico, US, Canada , Nav on EAP doesn't work in Canada. Period.
I Can't believe anything else he says, until I hear how he can make such monumental geography error. Because of this, I'm not sure anyone with AP 2.0/2.5 HW will be upgraded, to a new computer module. My confidence in Elon is being lost, slowly , gradually.
Yeah because the " North America wide " new eap updates somehow skipped its largest nation.
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