Elon Musk: Human drivers are dangerous

[bluenation]

When I was a kid cigarettes were considered innocuous by many. Now they are widely viewed as deadly. Which they clearly are.

Someday cars driven by humans will be considered too dangerous compared to cars controlled by computers, and that will make perfect sense at every level.

Elon is usually pretty far ahead of the curve...

ok so when are you getting rid of your tesla?

the thing is heavier and faster than most anytthing on the highway - ergo, more dangerous. Wouldn't want you to endanger society with your....addiction

Drove about 150 miles today. Made an estimated 20 corrections due to idiots in the road, at least 2 of which could have been harmful or fatal otherwise (entirely the fault of the other driver).

This is pretty average IMO. I fear other idiot drivers on road more than any existing or future autonomous vehicle thats for sure.

which is why tesla drivers are seeing their premiums slowly decrease because insurers everywhere realize what great drivers they are. You know, more responsible than all those 'idiots on the road'

 

[Robert.Boston]

Once autonomous driving is a good option (and that's at least a decade away even for new cars, and then another decade to cycle most of the non-autonomous cars off the road), I can see states setting increasingly high standards for people to maintain driver's licenses, with similar standards to recreational pilot licenses.

I can also see, somewhat earlier, an outright prohibition on manual driving on limited-access highways. Good autonomous cars will be able to drive faster and more closely spaced than humans can reliably replicate. Thus autonomous cars will be able to more than double the through-put of our existing highway system, greatly reducing traffic congestion. Allowing a few humans to drive and ruin this efficiency would wrong, IMO.

 

[Johan]

Once autonomous driving is a good option (and that's at least a decade away even for new cars, and then another decade to cycle most of the non-autonomous cars off the road), I can see states setting increasingly high standards for people to maintain driver's licenses, with similar standards to recreational pilot licenses.

I can also see, somewhat earlier, an outright prohibition on manual driving on limited-access highways. Good autonomous cars will be able to drive faster and more closely spaced than humans can reliably replicate. Thus autonomous cars will be able to more than double the through-put of our existing highway system, greatly reducing traffic congestion. Allowing a few humans to drive and ruin this efficiency would wrong, IMO.

Agree with both your points! Driving a car yourself in the future will be only for the few with special interest in such things (of the past).

There will absolutely be autonomous-only highways, which will be the first place where autonomous driving is first applied on a larger scale. You know how we like to talk about drafting on this forum and how on the one hand it can save (tons) of energy but on the other hand is dangerous? Well, if all the cars are drafting eachother together and they all communicate and slow up/speed down togheter, let cars merge and exit in a controlled fashion well then much of the dangers of drafting dissapear.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Then WTF build cars that can accelerate as quickly as a P85D? An autonomous car will never accelerate that quickly so it's a complete waste. One constant in the world, you can always count on Elon for a gaffe. The guy seriously has no filter.

I always told others that the Tesla made "driver's cars". They definitely feel like cars made for drivers and the benchmarks Elon uses are ultimate driver's cars like the McLaren.

I love how Elon has no filter and gets people thinking. It creates insights for those of us that have overactive filters and he gets people considering and talking about possibilities. I'm already very paranoid about all the requirements that will likely be placed on cars thanks to the NHTSA and the pressure placed on them by insurance companies and gadget developers. Being able to drive has been one of the biggest thrills of my life.

Elon speaks to his intended audience in order to inspire and consider what is possible. Unfortunately, the bean counters of the world are eavesdropping and they do not consider the intent and context, nor understand the value of inspiration and considering all the possibilities.

 

[mspohr]

Here is more information from the NVidia conference.
NVIDIA Details Titan X and Next-Gen GPU Architecture, Introduces DIGITS, and DevBox
Lots of details on self driving cars, image processing and AI to make it all work.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Then WTF build cars that can accelerate as quickly as a P85D? An autonomous car will never accelerate that quickly so it's a complete waste. One constant in the world, you can always count on Elon for a gaffe. The guy seriously has no filter.

Because Elon also said that having all cars on the road be fully autonomous is something that isn't going to happen for 50+ years (he didn't give an exact time range, but that time scale was implied by the data he gave).

 

[LetsGoFast]

 

[Jaff]

Agree completely!!!

Whilst the systems and software might be ready for autonomous driving, based on my three months of driving our P85D, the sensors (in real winter driving conditions) are NOWHERE near ready for primetime imo...

We are nowhere near autonomous driving today, at least not in bad weather conditions. The TACC on my Model S lasts for about 3 minutes in heavy snow until the sensor ices over and lane assist can't read lane lines when they are not visible due to snow. Not to mention that it thinks streetcar tracks in cities like Toronto are lane markers.

 

[Fanatic]

We are nowhere near autonomous driving today, at least not in bad weather conditions. The TACC on my Model S lasts for about 3 minutes in heavy snow until the sensor ices over and lane assist can't read lane lines when they are not visible due to snow. Not to mention that it thinks streetcar tracks in cities like Toronto are lane markers.

You Know that autopilot is just for highway, right?

 

[Lump]

Double espresso+Red Brachetta blasting on a canyon road = Tesla grin everytime time for this MC Red owner.

 

[TEG]

We are nowhere near autonomous driving today, at least not in bad weather conditions...

Reminder - Tesla uses unobtrusive, relatively cheap sensors that don't perform so well in heavy snow.
Google self driving cars (for example) have expensive roof mounted LIDAR that can work better in those conditions.
It is possible to make something work better if the manufacturer is willing to spend more money and 'uglify' the vehicle.

 

[Jaff]

Wouldn't owning and being driven around in one of "them autonomous Google silly looking car things" be the equivalent of perpetually exiting the washroom with the toilet paper streaming from your heel...?:wink::biggrin:

Reminder - Tesla uses unobtrusive, relatively cheap sensors that don't perform so well in heavy snow.
Google self driving cars (for example) have expensive roof mounted LIDAR that can work better in those conditions.
It is possible to make something work better if the manufacturer is willing to spend more money and 'uglify' the vehicle.

 

[PAULL]

Elon is referring to the far future, which he clarified in his tweet. People will see driving a car as a waste of brain power. Imagine just getting in your car and it taking you places. Complaining about not driving will be like complaining that your car needs a louder exhaust.

+1.
Furthermore, imagine summoning a car with your smartphone, with pre-programming to your destination.
No driver input needed, no ownership required, no more auto insurance...
This, and other such ideas have been mentioned by others long before the Tesla automobile was invented...

 

[Jaff]

If you own the car, you will have an exposure...you will still need to offset the exposure with auto insurance...it will just be rated differently...

 

[Beryl]

If you own the car, you will have an exposure...you will still need to offset the exposure with auto insurance...it will just be rated differently...

True. I suspect insurance may not rated lower as soon as it should right away.,

 

[mspohr]

Reminder - Tesla uses unobtrusive, relatively cheap sensors that don't perform so well in heavy snow.
Google self driving cars (for example) have expensive roof mounted LIDAR that can work better in those conditions.
It is possible to make something work better if the manufacturer is willing to spend more money and 'uglify' the vehicle.

It doesn't look like Google LIDAR can handle snow, rain, etc. either.
Google’s self-driving car can’t drive through rain or snow | Digital Trends

 

[strider]

Elon is referring to the far future, which he clarified in his tweet. People will see driving a car as a waste of brain power. Imagine just getting in your car and it taking you places. Complaining about not driving will be like complaining that your car needs a louder exhaust.

But that was the point of my post. Elon says stuff all the time which then has to be "clarified" later. Don't get me wrong. I like Elon a lot. He's a breath of fresh air in a world of "no-comment" corporate and public officials. I'm all for being provocative and he's always entertaining precisely because he doesn't have a filter. I just think it's going to bite him in the rear one day. Roadster owners have been promised many things over the years by Elon that have never happened. Heck, I'm still waiting for the on-board music storage I was promised in my Model S. Since pretty much everyone driving a Tesla today is an early adopter we are more willing to put up with this kind of stuff than "regular" consumers. But not everyone will be as accepting.

 

[Skotty]

An autonomous car is just a human driver by other means.

 

[mspohr]

An autonomous car is just a human driver by other means.

An hour ago I saw one of those "human" drivers in action. Stopped at a traffic light and it turned green. Human driver of the second car started up as soon as the light was green and ran into the back of the car in front. This is an absolute rookie human mistake. Autonomous car wouldn't make this mistake.

 

[Beryl]

Reading the concern about inclement conditions underscores why I think Elon properly uses the "autopilot" terminology. We don't have airlines using autonomous airplanes and it will be a long time before autonomous cars will be used everywhere and under all conditions.

That said, autopilot cars can be deployed for most conditions. They will reduce accidents when humans stay out of the way and let them work.