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Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

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Eh. I'm OK with windfalls, luck, or getting money by skill at gambling. I just don't like it when money is received for stealing or for other nasty behavior -- or when people who get money by luck *pretend* that they earned it.
Indeed.

Or those who masquerade as journalists. In my opinion, an analyst should present an honest analysis of a company based on the merits of that company's situation. Having a financial stake in that company it theoretically OK, as if you believe your honest analysis, then you have some basis for investing.

However, people being people, that isn't where it ends. When it moves past analysis and becomes manipulation in an effort to smother an otherwise viable company (by eliminating access to capital, etc...), then it becomes disingenuous at least, and perhaps (should be) illegal at worst. This holds also for those who knowingly disseminate the misinformation as followers.

It's the corporate equivalent of murdering somebody you've taken out an insurance policy on.
 
It’s possible that the only possible exit for the shorts is that the private sale doesn’t go through (from being voted down). I bet we will see a ton of FUD ramping up explaining why the private sale would be really bad for longs.

We saw this for the Solar City purchase when every bear was going on and on about how it would be the downfall of Tesla to buy Solar City. All those arguments were 100% self-serving just like the ones we will start to see about how it will be better for the longs to keep TSLA public.
 
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If Tesla goes private, can you imagine the % decrease in negative Tesla articles we will see in the press?? There will probably be 1 for every 100 we see now. It will prove why those articles have been so frequent.

I agree we'd see a decrease but maybe half would be more realistic. UBER is an example that shows just being private doesnt prevent negative press.
 
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Elon Musk on Twitter

"Def no forced sales. Hope all shareholders remain. Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts."

Well that's one way to resolve this issue.

I don't believe Musk can carry through on that promise. Examples from easy to hard:
-- Non-accredited investors. There's probably some way to wrap TSLA in a fund which they're allowed to buy into...
-- IRAs. Most people's regular IRA custodians don't like private equity -- and don't even like private equity funds -- though Musk may be able to talk certain major brokerages into allowing TSLA as an exception, since there's usually a list of exceptions. If not, self-directed IRA custodians charge $400/year fees to do nothing. So I guess technically not a forced sale, but a forced payment of $300/year to a pointless company to do nothing?
-- Mutual funds whose charters restrict or prohibit investment in private equity. They can change their charters... sometimes...
-- Foreign stockholders. Will their brokers allow them to become listed as direct investors (or investors of the private equity fund)? Will their governments? Will the US government?
-- 401(k)s. Many of these have a list of what they're allowed to buy and private equity isn't on the list. People still employed can't roll the money out or over. Musk cannot even change these rules, as they're set by the employer! Technically not a forced sale, but "sell your stock or quit your job" is pretty close...
-- Canadian retirement plans -- others have said they're prohibited by law from holding private equity. Technically not a forced sale, but if your choice is to remove the stock from the retirement plan before you retire and pay punitive tax rates for early withdrawals, yeah, you're gonna sell....
-- Other foreign retirement plans. Is Tesla seriously even going to *try* to solve the problems for these people?

It’s possible that the only possible exit for the shorts is that the private sale doesn’t go through (from being voted down). I bet we will see a ton of FUD ramping up explaining why the private sale would be really bad for longs.
It honestly would be bad for people who are (a) long and believe the company will boom and (b) hold stock in an account which can't hold private equity.

For those who hold their stock after-tax in the US, the main question is how the "liquidity events" work because the main downside is lack of liquidity. We need tons of detail.

I am voting no unless Musk resolves these concerns. I think the stock is most likely worth a lot more than $450 and I do not trust that I will (a) be able to hang onto my stock in my IRA without ridiculous fees, and (b) be able to liquidate after-tax TSLA stock in the event that I need to (I can hold out for a year at a time, but I have no clarity on these "liquidity events" yet).

We saw this for the Solar City purchase when every bear was going on and on about how it would be the downfall of Tesla to buy Solar City. All those arguments were 100% self-serving just like the ones we will start to see about how it will be better for the longs to keep TSLA public.

I'm a bull but I already can list off problems with going private, so I just did. Hopefully we'll see resolutions to these problems.
 
I'm assuming most of the large holders will be for this and our votes won't matter.

Agreed, from this tweet
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

I believe he has >50% current share/vote converage. The investors/ future shareholders would gave gotten in below 420.

Also agree with @neroden on the difficulties of staying with Tesla.
 
It’s possible that the only possible exit for the shorts is that the private sale doesn’t go through (from being voted down). I bet we will see a ton of FUD ramping up explaining why the private sale would be really bad for longs.

We saw this for the Solar City purchase when every bear was going on and on about how it would be the downfall of Tesla to buy Solar City. All those arguments were 100% self-serving just like the ones we will start to see about how it will be better for the longs to keep TSLA public.

Do not worry. We are veterans in this media war. We went trough this FUD with no lack of faith. It would be very naive if someone thinks that it will change now.
 
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