Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

[Yggdrasill]

at least 290 miles range?
AWD?
0-60 in under 3 seconds?

What car are you talking about? A Model S P100DL? If so, that costs in excess of 150K Euro, not 70K USD.
If you are talking about the Model 3, where did you get those specs?

- Musk said that the Model 3 will come with a 75 kWh pack, which means it should achieve around 300 miles of EPA range. I said 290 miles to err on the side of caution.
- AWD is scheduled for release next year
- Musk has said that the Model 3 will have ludicrous mode. Insane mode was 3.1 seconds, so to exceed that it's quite likely under 3 seconds.

See my current expectations here: Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

 

[AustinPowers]

Just to emphasise the "no competition"-part. These are the "competitors" Austin Powers mentioned:

Since when has the Ampera-e got no ACC? And towing? Where did they rule that out? And what does a compact family hatch need ludicrous acceleration for?

What's more, since when has Tesla stated that the Model 3 will get a towing option?

And how do you happen to know all the realistic ranges of all those models (including Model 3) for certain?

 

[AustinPowers]

- Musk said that the Model 3 will come with a 75 kWh pack, which means it should achieve around 300 miles of EPA range. I said 290 miles to err on the side of caution.
- AWD is scheduled for release next year
- Musk has said that the Model 3 will have ludicrous mode. Insane mode was 3.1 seconds, so to exceed that it's quite likely under 3 seconds.

See my current expectations here: Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

The error in your logic is "Musk said".

Musk says a lot of things.
From now on forward I am not going to believe one word he says any more, unless he delivers. Should have done that a long time ago.

That way I will not be getting my hopes up for something that is then thrown out of the window in exchange for some other crap that I neither want nor need and that I am only told to find awesome. Never again.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Since when has the Ampera-e got no ACC?

Since, always.

And towing? Where did they rule that out?

The current version doesn't have it, at least.

And what does a compact family hatch need ludicrous acceleration for?

It's fun.

What's more, since when has Tesla stated that the Model 3 will get a towing option?

Musk has said so on twitter, twice.

And how do you happen to know all the realistic ranges of all those models (including Model 3) for certain?

They're ballpark figures. They may be wrong to some extent or other, but the gist is correct. The Model 3 is likely to be the class leader when it comes to range.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The error in your logic is "Musk said".

Musk says a lot of things.
From now on forward I am not going to believe one word he says any more, unless he delivers. Should have done that a long time ago.

He fails to keep one promise, "high spec first", and you disregard everything? Well, I can't stop you.

 

[AustinPowers]

Since, always.

[...]

Musk has said so on twitter, twice.

Strange, I have just been to the German Opel website, and it sure looks as if the Ampera-e will get some form of ACC, even with emergency braking.

And as for the latter, twice nothing is still nothing.

 

[AustinPowers]

He fails to keep one promise, "high spec first", and you disregard everything? Well, I can't stop you.

Now come on, it's not as if this was the first time he overpromised and underdelivered. It's a well-known theme with Elon Musk.
Believe what you will, I have been disappointed the last time.

I will make an appointment for an Ampera-e test drive as soon as possible, and if that thing is at least half decent, I will seriously consider getting one. My other favorite was the new e-Golf, but after Dieselgate and the way VW treated its European customers in contrast to the ones in the US, I will never buy another VW, that much is certain.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Strange, I have just been to the German Opel website, and it sure looks as if the Ampera-e will get some form of ACC, even with emergency braking.

The German website is probably wrong. I checked the Norwegian EV forum, and all the Ampera-e buyers here are still disappointed it doesn't have it. (The Bolt doesn't have ACC either.)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Just to emphasise the "no competition"-part. These are the "competitors" Austin Powers mentioned:

Opel Ampera-e:
- No AWD
- Only 50 kW charging
- No towing
- No Ludicrous acceleration
- Not even ACC
- Over 50 miles less range
- High air resistance means low range at high speed

Next version of the BMW i3:
- No AWD
- Only 50 kW charging (?)
- No towing
- No Ludicrous acceleration
- Over 100 miles less range (?)
- High air resistance means low range at high speed

Renault Zoe:
- No AWD
- Only 22/43 kW charging (obsolete standard - hard to find more than 22 kW in Norway, at least)
- No towing
- Crap acceleration
- Over 100 miles less range

Next version of the VW e-Golf
- No AWD
- Only 40 kW charging (?)
- No towing
- Crap acceleration
- Over 100 miles less range
- High air resistance means low range at high speed

Next version of the Hyundai Ioniq
- No AWD
- Only 80 kW charging
- No towing
- Crap acceleration
- Over 100 miles less range

Jaguar I-Pace
- Only 50 kW charging (officially)
- No towing (officially)
- No Ludicrous acceleration
- Over 50 miles less range (?)
- Much higher price
- High air resistance means low range at high speed

(Maybe not 100% correct, but close.)

You forgot Audi e-tron quattro.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Yes, I'm sure some will be disappointed with when they can take delivery. Luckily for Tesla, there's no competition to worry about.

That won't last long. That Dual Motor I-Pace is beautiful.

 

[Yggdrasill]

You forgot Audi e-tron quattro.

Hard to compare a car where nothing is known. If it turns out not to be vaporware, I'll try to compare it.

 

[TehDoak]

I can imagine a situation where the motor is the bottleneck on production. I mean, logically it's batteries, but imagine a concern about motor production. You can build twice the RWD vehicles compared to AWD with the same number of motors. Or maybe they have warranty concerns around the motors like with our early Model S motors. Half the things to replace.

These are wild theories, placed here to point out that there may be something less than obvious which is driving the RWD decision.

I doubt we'll ever get anything out of tesla other than the "simpler" narrative. There's a ton of possible reasons, including not being able to design a production line for 3 different engines quick enough (RWD, AWD F/R), potential quality control/software development issues, and even a potential 'profitability' issue where they can't make the AWD option immediately profitable at the price they want to charge.

Let's assume AWD cost $3,500, waiting 6-9 months and missing out on $7,500 tax credit, makes AWD a $10,000 option. Not worth it

To be 100% fair, the $7500 drops to $3750 for 6 months after Tesla hits 200k. Assuming the worst here, 6-9 months AFTER the start of production, you still likely are going to get the 50% credit. Still a $7250 "cost".

 

[Yggdrasill]

That won't last long. That Dual Motor I-Pace is beautiful.

Yes, but as I said, it's about twice as expensive as the Model 3. It's really a Model X competitor - but Jaguar should watch out if the Model Y arrives in 2019, then they may be screwed.

Availability is also an issue - the planned production is only something like 20k units per year. If it turns out to be compelling, that's barely noticable.

 

[3Victoria]

Now come on, it's not as if this was the first time he overpromised and underdelivered. It's a well-known theme with Elon Musk.

I think you are missing the forest fof the trees. EM and Tesla have singlehandedly accelerated the world to electric vehicles. EM and SpaceX have shown privately built boosters that land themselves. The bid picture is that he is accomplishing lots -- fussing over some details seems nitpicky to me.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Hard to compare a car where nothing is known. If it turns out not to be vaporware, I'll try to compare it.

Granted, there is a window in time when S3X is still the only game in town (plus Bolt, but so far only in very limited towns). Hence most of us EV interested people who can afford it are here on the Tesla forum, of course. However, I would not be as dismissive of what is available in 2018. The cars you listed with caveats (every car has some) will have also upsides that can and will be appealing to some people.

For example, many may have better cargo hauling capacity inside than Model 3 (and Model Y is "few years" away). This already applies to Bolt to some extent. The biggest issue currently is that there actually are no large-battery EV alternatives available in most of the world, except Tesla. But that is something that will change in 2018 the latest. Once that changes, a lot of things change from an EV buyer's perspective.

I am not sure those customers will be quite as dismissive of the alternatives as you list... they will come from more familiar brands with many familiar and important features... We shall see, of course.

 

[Garlan Garner]

He fails to keep one promise, "high spec first", and you disregard everything? Well, I can't stop you.

This is not at all the first. When was AutoPilot 8.x supposed to be out?

For goodness sake...he now has his own time zone MT or ET. Musk Time or Elon Time

 

[Yggdrasill]

This is not at all the first. When was AutoPilot 8.x supposed to be out?

For goodness sake...he now has his own time zone MT or ET. Musk Time or Elon Time

I meant in relation to the Model 3, but fair enough. When it comes to timing, he's been less than reliable. When it comes to specs, however, he's rarely wrong.

 

[dsvick]

This also contradicts Elon's tweet of "loyalty begets loyalty." Elon indicated he would game the system and maximize the amount of people who would receive the maximum tax credit, making people wait 6-9 months ensures they will get little if any tax credit.

No it doesn't. It just means that different people will get the tax credit. And, if it really does let them ramp up production as fast as they intended, then this means that they are ensuring that the maximum number of people will get the tax credit. Maybe you're upset because you want AWD and might not be one of them....?

 

[bro1999]

- Musk said that the Model 3 will come with a 75 kWh pack, which means it should achieve around 300 miles of EPA range. I said 290 miles to err on the side of caution.
- AWD is scheduled for release next year
- Musk has said that the Model 3 will have ludicrous mode. Insane mode was 3.1 seconds, so to exceed that it's quite likely under 3 seconds.

See my current expectations here: Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

Elon also said the 3 will not be as quick as the S, and that the S "Will always be the fastest Tesla until next gen Roadster". Since the 3 will have a max 75 kWh pack, I really doubt it will be able to come close to even a P90DL's sub-3 second 0-60 time. Definitely not a sub-3 second 0-60 time anyways.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Elon also said the 3 will not be as quick as the S, and that the S "Will always be the fastest Tesla until next gen Roadster". Since the 3 will have a max 75 kWh pack, I really doubt it will be able to come close to even a P90DL's sub-3 second 0-60 time. Definitely not a sub-3 second 0-60 time anyways.

At ~375 kW max, 1950 kg and 1.1G, the Model 3 should be traction limited up to around 40 mph. 0-40 mph at 1.1G will take ~1.8 seconds. Assuming a constant output of 375 kW above 40 mph, 40-60 mph will take 1.0 seconds.

That works out to 2.8 seconds. That is in an ideal world, *but* I assume 0-60 will be stated using 1 ft rollout, which means 2.8 is very doable.

2.8 seconds is significantly more than the Model S, which does 0-60 in 2.5 seconds. (12% more.)