Elon & Twitter

[2daMoon]

I stopped watching his uncritical fanboyism a while ago. This video reminded me why.

Care to elaborate on exactly what aspect of the plan/projections Elon shared in the slide deck presented to Twitter, which SMR reported on, that you find problems with?

Your disdain for the presenter in no way challenges his track record for being right. Whether or not SMR is a fanboi has little bearing upon the validity of the information Elon shared, does it?

Is there anything other than emotion supporting your discontent when data to the contrary of your belief is presented? Or, is lashing out with Disagrees and non sequiturs the strongest counterpoint that can be mustered?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon's plans for Twitter

Note Elon is not talking about closing the deal! I think until we consistently get that we can assume we’re going to trial shortly.

 

[JRP3]

Care to elaborate on exactly what aspect of the plan/projections Elon shared in the slide deck presented to Twitter, which SMR reported on, that you find problems with?

Expecting people to pay for twitter.

 

[2daMoon]

Note Elon is not talking about closing the deal! I think until we consistently get that we can assume we’re going to trial shortly.

Okay, maybe I've missed something. The court has stayed proceedings and given Twitter and Elon until October 28 to resolve their business of conducting the sale. The 28th is a critical cutoff date for the original proposal made for acting on the loans. Per the judge, due to the stay, the next earliest trial date would be set in November. Not exactly "shortly" by any degree.

Haven't Elon's attorneys reiterated that the offer to purchase Twitter stands and that they are ready to conclude the purchase?

Elon Musk gets 3 weeks to close $44 billion Twitter deal

The judge presiding over Elon Musk and Twitter's case gave the billionaire three weeks to close their $44 billion deal.

www.teslarati.com

That seems reasonably consistent that Elon does indeed want to buy.

Have I overlooked or misinterpreted something?

 

[2daMoon]

Expecting people to pay for twitter.

People already pay for Twitter. The users are the "product" being sold to advertisers. This is the bane of most social media "services."

Elon's plans are for a different dynamic that is more beneficial to the users and less so to those would would use Twitter nefariously.

Elon intends to add value to Twitter by increasing security, removing artificial accounts, offering discrete user levels, and reduce the advertising income and the associated poor decision making by employees that have in the past been based more upon knowing who butters their bread and less on the ethical running of a business.

Is there any chance of you providing a well-thought-out response that is longer than one sentence which does actually address your specific concerns across a broad scope of information in enough detail to demonstrate you are cognizant of the topic under discussion?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not exactly "shortly" by any degree.

By shortly I mean November; little reason for Twitter to complain until clock runs out which would well and truly tangle Elon.

Just saying that Elon has so far not discussed buying Twitter at $54.20. If he does that would be a somewhat reassuring shift.

Definitely seems like chances of expectation damages have gone up (still low).

 

[2daMoon]

By shortly I mean November; little reason for Twitter to complain until clock runs out which would well and truly tangle Elon.

Just saying that Elon has so far not discussed buying Twitter at $54.20. If he does that would be a somewhat reassuring shift.

Definitely seems like chances of expectation damages have gone up (still low).

A tangled web for sure. Guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Thanks for the thoughtful discourse!

 

[Knightshade]

Okay, maybe I've missed something. The court has stayed proceedings and given Twitter and Elon until October 28 to resolve their business of conducting the sale. The 28th is a critical cutoff date for the original proposal made for acting on the loans.

That's not correct.

There was an Oct 20 date in there- not the 28th.

But that date will be pushed back while litigation is pending-- one of the key reasons twitter didn't wish to DISMISS the lawsuit, but a stay was fine.

Per the judge, due to the stay, the next earliest trial date would be set in November. Not exactly "shortly" by any degree.

In terms of typical court scheduling "next month" is VERY shortly.

Haven't Elon's attorneys reiterated that the offer to purchase Twitter stands and that they are ready to conclude the purchase?

Sure- but they've said LOTS of stuff that didn't end up being accurate. Remember how he never discussed the deal over signal, and then he did but just that one time, and then it was just those two times? Or how he thought the bot rate was over 20% but turns out even his own analysts said it was 5-10%?

That seems reasonably consistent that Elon does indeed want to buy.

Have I overlooked or misinterpreted something?

I mean, first he wanted to join the board.. then didn't... then he wanted to buy at $54.20....then didn't... now he does again.

All of those changes of mind each happened in LESS than the 3 weeks we're currently looking at between today and closing date.

 

[2daMoon]

No. I've already made many posts on the topic, I'm not going to rehash it. You should spend more time addressing your own obvious lack of understanding that you keep demonstrating.

Yepper, on your advice I looked through some of the 140 posts you have in this thread. Congratulations! Search results

There wasn't much to re-hash, though I did make some effort to do so. Some of them actually did have more than one sentence. I didn't find any that embraced the current discussion that there may be more to this purchase than just a social media company.

A few posts pondered upon your curiosity over why Elon would even want to buy and run a social media company. Other people in response alluded to how Elon, someone who thinks BIG, might be interested in something more than just Twitter. Generally, you avoid entertaining this concept at all. Is this tactic representative of a personally preferred path toward understanding?

Dismissing other's narratives, despite likely having some understanding of how, for example, Tesla is not just a car company, you seem unwilling to consider how his long game for buying Twitter might not be just about running a social media company. Buying Twitter might be about something as huge as disrupting modern Spaceflight, or transitioning the world to renewable energy, or creating A.I. and a robot workforce that will change the world as we know it.

What leads you to believe so strongly that this couldn't be a possibility for Elon to envision?

The idea that you might be underestimating what is going on with Elon and Twitter doesn't seem to appear on your radar. Someone who can run four companies simply cannot run five. Despite Elon providing so many clues about his purpose in wanting Twitter, you repeatedly disregard them. Maybe they don't fit the narrative you hold dear.

Perhaps it is inappropriate to indicate concern over another person's effort at understanding while demonstrating such closed-mindedness.

 

[JRP3]

Yepper, on your advice I looked through some of the 140 posts you have in this thread. Congratulations! Search results

I've also posted on the topic in other threads, not that I expect you to search my entire history.

The idea that you might be underestimating what is going on with Elon and Twitter doesn't seem to appear on your radar. Someone who can run four companies simply cannot run five. Despite Elon providing so many clues about his purpose in wanting Twitter, you repeatedly disregard them. Maybe they don't fit the narrative you hold dear.

Elon can run 5 companies but they will all suffer. I'd prefer Elon's brain to be more focused on Tesla and SpaceX primarily, Boring and Neuralink secondarily, and Twitter not at all, obviously. I understand that Elon sees Twitter as more than just a social media site, I disagree with the importance of owning twitter to achieve his goals. Obviously at some point in this endeavor Elon agreed with me and tried to get out of the deal. Now he seems to feel his hand has been forced because his case was weak. He'll do what he can to make the best of this mess he created, to the detriment of his other companies and with no guarantee of success. I also think it likely he'll make Twitter worse overall in the long run but yes it's possible I'm wrong about that.

There's a bunch of sentences strung together for you.

 

[juanmedina]

Is this guy or Gary correct?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578547881241243648

 

[Knightshade]

Gary already replied himself

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578566209800638464

 

[Buckminster]

Most entertaining outcome (for me) would be that Elon is driving down TSLA now so that he can buy more TSLA when the deal falls through. Then a $2T TSLA buys a $20Bn TWTR.

 

[2daMoon]

I've also posted on the topic in other threads, not that I expect you to search my entire history.

Elon can run 5 companies but they will all suffer. I'd prefer Elon's brain to be more focused on Tesla and SpaceX primarily, Boring and Neuralink secondarily, and Twitter not at all, obviously. I understand that Elon sees Twitter as more than just a social media site, I disagree with the importance of owning twitter to achieve his goals. Obviously at some point in this endeavor Elon agreed with me and tried to get out of the deal. Now he seems to feel his hand has been forced because his case was weak. He'll do what he can to make the best of this mess he created, to the detriment of his other companies and with no guarantee of success. I also think it likely he'll make Twitter worse overall in the long run but yes it's possible I'm wrong about that.

There's a bunch of sentences strung together for you.

As for Elon and Tesla, he isn't involved to any significant degree in the routine running of the company. He is closely involved in some of the R&D projects, like FSD, DOJO, Optimus SubPrime, etc. I suspect this is mostly on an advisory and supervisory scale with the people doing the heavy lifting on-site, rather than directly working on the projects himself.

SpaceX is his biggest focus. This is where he does significant hands-on work on the Starship project. Closely monitoring for ways to further streamline the production and development.

Boring and Neuralink seem to be self-supporting. Elon's involvement is similar as with Tesla. Checking in periodically and offering guidance when necessary.

What little it will take Elon to initially assemble his Twitter team is a valid up-front time cost. A few months down the road his involvement will be mostly in an advisory and supervisory capacity over the R&D projects there as well, working with the teams tasked with achieving his goals. Granted, there is the chance for occasional moments needing immediate attention by him along the way, but, compared with getting a production line running for Tesla or SpaceX, transforming Twitter will add no significant burden upon his resources.

Elon has demonstrated for most of his adult life how this method of juggling projects is exactly where he performs at his best. Once he has sorted out the key management and operations staffing it seems unlikely Twitter will make any call upon his attention that would have a measurable effect on the operation of any of the other companies.

Professed fears over this do not seem to be so much rooted in an analysis of Elon's success in employing his method of operation as much as they may be more about us Muggles trying to imagine how any one of us might do it.

I trust Elon to know his limits better than I would, and to achieve his goals at whatever pace he finds comfortable, as he has done up till now.

 

[JRP3]

As for Elon and Tesla, he isn't involved to any significant degree in the routine running of the company. He is closely involved in some of the R&D projects, like FSD, DOJO, Optimus SubPrime, etc.

Which is unfortunate. I believe his engineering talents and problem solving should be focused on the issues of 4680 production ramp and Cybertruck production. And a fraction of the money could be better spent ramping up lithium mines and production which he is constantly asking for.

 

[mongo]

Which is unfortunate. I believe his engineering talents and problem solving should be focused on the issues of 4680 production ramp and Cybertruck production. And a fraction of the money could be better spent ramping up lithium mines and production which he is constantly asking for.

How much time is engineering and how much time is implementing, getting new tooling, testing?
If you could manage a 2 week hardware turn around cycle, that is still a lot of mental downtime.
How many months waiting on 9000CS to come in?

 

[advocate8]

Which is unfortunate. I believe his engineering talents and problem solving should be focused on the issues of 4680 production ramp and Cybertruck production. And a fraction of the money could be better spent ramping up lithium mines and production which he is constantly asking for.

All things that would actually focus on things he is involved with that are productive, profitable (or likely to become so) and important for humanity. Almost everything else he’s involved with isn’t important to improve the human condition and never could be (Twitter for example and SpaceX), or is only important because he is making grandiose claims that aren’t going to pan out.

All this talk of Twitter being a 3D chess move to boost his other stuff is just ridiculous. WYSIWYG with Elon. He bought it because he is addicted to Tweeting and acted impulsively. You don’t try desperately to wriggle out of a deal you see as a key piece to your master plan. You desperately try to wriggle off the hook when you realize you make a bad impulse purchase.

 

[30seconds]

Yes he will apparently need to figure out how to let Kanye back on again because free speech.

What a disaster

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Which is unfortunate. I believe his engineering talents and problem solving should be focused on the issues of 4680 production ramp and Cybertruck production. And a fraction of the money could be better spent ramping up lithium mines and production which he is constantly asking for.

CT production is a "nice to have" IMO. They're pumping out max EV car units based on cell and chip availability, so the automotive box is checked for now.

We don't have much visibility into the 4680 ramp or the problems holding it up. From my understanding they just wanna watch the first few dozen million miles and see how safety goes with the cooling. Maybe this is now done?

I was in the "let's mine lithium if that's the holdup" camp, but the market will take care of any shortage soon enough.

I think we need to realize automotive is maxed out and scaling nicely. There's not much else that can be done. And it sounds like Energy is now able to scale as well due to cell supply.

Perfectly fine for Elon to be focused on SpaceX IMO. Tesla is doing great. Couldn't be doing much more even if Elon was on Tesla 100%.

Any TWTR effort will likely take away from SpaceX, not Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

Which is unfortunate. I believe his engineering talents and problem solving should be focused on the issues of 4680 production ramp and Cybertruck production. And a fraction of the money could be better spent ramping up lithium mines and production which he is constantly asking for.

So, you believe that his engineering talents and problem solving skills will not be used there too?

He really hasn't shown any indication that an existing project suffers merely for having taken on another. Looking at what he has accomplished so far supports this. His talent has always been wide-spread and because of this there are SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Company, Neuralink, and soon Twitter (or, more specifically, X.com) as well.

You keep treating this as if it is some spur of the moment move on his part, when in fact it is part of a plan he has been incubating since before SpaceX was started. Of any of his ventures, this one probably has been give more of his thought and planning than any of them. All that is left is the implementing of those plans.

Purchasing an existing social media platform that has users from all walks of life and world-wide usage is perfect for launching this. He's not buying it because he likes to Tweet. He's buying it because it is the easiest to acquire that fits the bill for best accelerating that project. Consider the alternatives and decide which you would purchase instead.