Elon & Twitter

[AlanSubie4Life]

Source is Business Insider

One of the investors that agreed to back Elon Musk's Twitter bid says they want out of the deal

Earlier this year, several investors agreed to contribute more than $7 billion to Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Stock prices have slumped since then.

t.co

“MVP runs venture capital funds with more than $1 billion in assets, according to its website. It also specializes in secondary market transactions, where existing startup shareholders and employees sell their private stock to get liquidity. The firm has invested in startups including Instacart, Discord, and Musk's SpaceX. Exits include Airbnb, Pinterest, and DocuSign.

In early May, before Musk tried to put a hold in the Twitter deal, he disclosed a list of investors who had agreed at that time to put $7.139 billion of equity into the acquisition. MVP is not listed in that SEC filing, however the firm was subpoenaed in August to provide a deposition as part of the deal litigation between Twitter and Musk.”

Likely a very small commitment with only $1 billion under management.

Just a few more days until this is all wrapped up and I get my next beer. Looks like everyone is in and Elon just has to sign on the dotted line.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Just a few more days until this is all wrapped up and I get my next beer. Looks like everyone is in and Elon just has to sign on the dotted line.

Chekhov’s gun = “debt financing”
Red herring = equity partners

 

[vikings123]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580687195265908736

God let this be true, just slap a 3B fine on him and be done with this nonsense.

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580687195265908736

God let this be true, just slap a 3B fine on him and be done with this nonsense.

Probably a redacted version of an old filing being released.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580380989255139328

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah, this is old (Oct 6th). Twitter just doing discovery. Drama!

Some of us do! Love this account.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580693155740909568

 

[betstarship]

I swear to god, if Musk shows a monkey and a pig tweeting out thoughts from Neuralink on Halloween...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580687195265908736

God let this be true, just slap a 3B fine on him and be done with this nonsense.

Best thing is definitely to be done with it. Needs to just pony up the $44B cash and move on. I think he is working on it now since he doesn’t want to go to trial otherwise he’ll owe PJI which is not nothing.

This is so boring now. Just overhanging nonsense. Get it done and enjoy your new toy, Elon!

 

[Daniel in SD]

Best thing is definitely to be done with it. Needs to just pony up the $44B cash and move on. I think he is working on it now since he doesn’t want to go to trial otherwise he’ll owe PJI which is not nothing.

This is so boring now. Just overhanging nonsense. Get it done and enjoy your new toy, Elon!

I just want to put into the record that I only think a trial is more likely than not. My expected value of my bet is probably 0.6 beers.

 

[chiller]

I swear to god, if Musk shows a monkey and a pig tweeting out thoughts from Neuralink on Halloween...

Would they be counted into the mDAU number?

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580931068634750976

I'm curious how Elon could be out of margin loan capacity? What has he borrowed that much money for? Or are margin limits very low for someone who has so much stock in a single company?

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580931068634750976

I'm curious how Elon could be out of margin loan capacity? What has he borrowed that much money for? Or are margin limits very low for someone who has so much stock in a single company?

I depends upon what % of value the banks assign to the TSLA shares (i.e. Fidelity assigns 40% of share price as value for margin for us mortals).

This is just Gary pulling things out of his butt with no actual insider knowledge.

 

[mongo]

I depends upon what % of value the banks assign to the TSLA shares (i.e. Fidelity assigns 40% of share price as value for margin for us mortals).

This is just Gary pulling things out of his butt with no actual insider knowledge.

Yeah, Elon originally had a margin loan as part of the financing and that was after the April stock sale.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580931068634750976

I'm curious how Elon could be out of margin loan capacity? What has he borrowed that much money for? Or are margin limits very low for someone who has so much stock in a single company?

I am so confused. Why is any of this necessary? Banks aren’t gonna back out. Elon is done selling Tesla.

At least, that is what I thought. All this speculation about margin and selling more Tesla to buy Twitter just seems to not match what I thought we knew?

What am I missing?

 

[Knightshade]

You're missing the equity investors.

Elon is on the hook for 33 billion... but from court stuff it sounds like he had (at least) 7 billion of that 33 lined up from other, private, investors--- NOT the bank funding (which is another 13B)

If those investors, who are NOT obligated like the banks or Elon are, pull out then Elon potentially needs to come up with that difference.

Or just text Ellison and ask for it I guess?

 

[bkp_duke]

You're missing the equity investors.

Elon is on the hook for 33 billion... but from court stuff it sounds like he had (at least) 7 billion of that 33 lined up from other, private, investors--- NOT the bank funding (which is another 13B)

If those investors, who are NOT obligated like the banks or Elon are, pull out then Elon potentially needs to come up with that difference.

Or just text Ellison and ask for it I guess?

He also owned 9.x % of TWTR already. So he obviously doesn't have to buy that portion.

 

[mongo]

You're missing the equity investors.

Elon is on the hook for 33 billion... but from court stuff it sounds like he had (at least) 7 billion of that 33 lined up from other, private, investors--- NOT the bank funding (which is another 13B)

If those investors, who are NOT obligated like the banks or Elon are, pull out then Elon potentially needs to come up with that difference.

Or just text Ellison and ask for it I guess?

Potential loss of those other investors was the stated reason for his most recent sale.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Potential loss of those other investors was the stated reason for his most recent sale.

Yep so if he keeps everyone in line he’ll just buy back after closing the deal just like he said and then 2 da moon.



Or maybe:

 

[zecar]

As for Elon and Tesla, he isn't involved to any significant degree in the routine running of the company. He is closely involved in some of the R&D projects, like FSD, DOJO, Optimus SubPrime, etc. I suspect this is mostly on an advisory and supervisory scale with the people doing the heavy lifting on-site, rather than directly working on the projects himself.

SpaceX is his biggest focus. This is where he does significant hands-on work on the Starship project. Closely monitoring for ways to further streamline the production and development.

Boring and Neuralink seem to be self-supporting. Elon's involvement is similar as with Tesla. Checking in periodically and offering guidance when necessary.

What little it will take Elon to initially assemble his Twitter team is a valid up-front time cost. A few months down the road his involvement will be mostly in an advisory and supervisory capacity over the R&D projects there as well, working with the teams tasked with achieving his goals. Granted, there is the chance for occasional moments needing immediate attention by him along the way, but, compared with getting a production line running for Tesla or SpaceX, transforming Twitter will add no significant burden upon his resources.

Elon has demonstrated for most of his adult life how this method of juggling projects is exactly where he performs at his best. Once he has sorted out the key management and operations staffing it seems unlikely Twitter will make any call upon his attention that would have a measurable effect on the operation of any of the other companies.

Professed fears over this do not seem to be so much rooted in an analysis of Elon's success in employing his method of operation as much as they may be more about us Muggles trying to imagine how any one of us might do it.

I trust Elon to know his limits better than I would, and to achieve his goals at whatever pace he finds comfortable, as he has done up till now.

Elon may have peaked. Everyone and everything does.

One possibility going forward is increasingly bad judgement. I suspect this is how is history will be written.
But I do believe that Tesla and SpaceX are still very solid company not too at risk of mismanagement.
If Musk can make Twitter more valuable I will change my mind.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If Musk can make Twitter more valuable I will change my mind.

To me it seems like he will. He will just do 3x-4x less well than he could have, and you have to compare that to things he could have bought with that $44B (or $10B-$15B). Maybe not the best choice.

Would have been so much less drama if he had just waited until now to make a generous offer of $20.69. Still could have sold his TSLA at the approximate all-time high and would have been a legend.

 

[Bouba]

If X-app becomes the next big thing then he’s laughing…there is also the personal value of a platform for his thoughts. Not to mention how much Twitter could save in marketing for Tesla…should it ever need a marketing department