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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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Was thinking about doing exactly this plot :). Thanks. Where do you get the daily numbers - do you record them yourself every night? In that case, you should really get... :D

Yeah, just ran the numbers as well. I went with the itanywhere daily numbers, so may be a bit off from what you calculated (or I made an error) but the end result is the same.
In Q1 there were 65 workdays in Norway - and we have 65 days of data. However in Q2 there are only 58, but we will likely have 59 days of data as they kept delivering last Saturday. Today we had day 55, so very unlikely we would catch up, especially that today wasn't anything special in registration numbers.
So compared to day 55 of Q1 we are 125 ahead. But we will have 6 days less.
View attachment 232885

PS: yes, I should get a life.
 
Was thinking about doing exactly this plot :). Thanks. Where do you get the daily numbers - do you record them yourself every night? In that case, you should really get... :D
Haha, I am dedicated to the cause, but also lazy. :) So I use the itanywhere.no site where we have the S and X delivery tracker. Not sure how they pull the data, but it is refreshing "real time" almost, so they must have a connection to the government registration database. This is the S and this is the X tracker.

It`s not too user friendly for exporting, but I just do a "select all" on the site, copy/paste it into Excel, delete what I don`t need and work with that. You can try and select only the data you need for the specific period by highlighting only those lines in the table, but frankly it is a little tedious so I just select all.

One note, if you want to work with this using a non-English Excel: mine, set to Hungarian, can`t really work with the date format (dd.mm.yyyy) they use, so if you try and sort by that it won`t do it properly. We Hungarians normally use yyyy.mm.dd - you`d think Excel would recognize all popular date formats... but no. So I actually split the date field with "data to columns" using the dot as a separator and then sort.

PS, once the month is over I`ll post another slice of this data to the General Discussion thread. You can actually pull what Models were delivered, so those who normally try and work out the revenue/profit based on the delivery numbers could get an idea of X100D vs X75D for instance. I know it`s only 1 country, but it`s exactly 1 country more than we normally have.
 
I am also very curious about the S/X this month. Based on Norway you'd say there is a radical shift underway towards the X.
That is interesting, isn`t it? I thought the X would be much more popular in the US than Europe. then again, the market for S may be a little saturated - many who are in that price bracket already got one - while the X is still fresh.
 
I don't think Norway can be used as an indicator for the rest of Europe. In Norway, the lack of towing for the Model S is a significant downside vs the competition. And >95% of S-buyers opt for AWD. This means that if you're considering an S with AWD, taking that extra step furter and getting an X with towing isn't that much more expensive.

Also, we generally don't mind larger cars, as we usually have off-street parking, and we don't have many large cities where large cars are impractical.
 
Haha, I am dedicated to the cause, but also lazy. :) So I use the itanywhere.no site where we have the S and X delivery tracker. Not sure how they pull the data, but it is refreshing "real time" almost, so they must have a connection to the government registration database. This is the S and this is the X tracker.
All electric car licence plates start with EL or EK (they ran out of plates on the EL series). The guy who maintains the website has made a script that continually polls the registry. (Here: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen ) Currently the two series have around 60k available plates, so it takes time to cycle through them all, but the plates are handed out to dealers in blocks, so the site can be fairly up to date by simply polling the few plates that are next in line on the current blocks at each dealer. A new block of plates may take more time to show up.

This is my understanding of it, anyway.
 
All electric car licence plates start with EL or EK (they ran out of plates on the EL series). The guy who maintains the website has made a script that continually polls the registry. (Here: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen ) Currently the two series have around 60k available plates, so it takes time to cycle through them all, but the plates are handed out to dealers in blocks, so the site can be fairly up to date by simply polling the few plates that are next in line at the current blocks at each dealer. A new block of plates may take more time to show up.

This is my understanding of it, anyway.
Super mega thanks for that tidbit! So historically, the numbers at that site are within +-3 I would say to the official numbers we get from the registry for the month. So the data is pretty accurate.
 
Super mega thanks for that tidbit! So historically, the numbers at that site are within +-3 I would say to the official numbers we get from the registry for the month. So the data is pretty accurate.
No problem.

There are some things that add to the margin of error. First, all cars that are registered show up. This includes imported CPO/used cars. Second, if a car has the plates stolen, new plates will be issued to the same car. These are the biggest two sources of inaccuracy, but I'm sure there are others.
 
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Wow, 31 MX delivered so far today. I was thinking no chance of hitting monthly record... now I think it could be possible.

Yep. It's sort of interesting that there are that many X and that little S delivered. Makes me wonder if Tesla was surpressing X sales a bit beforehand (for example because its gross margin on that model was lower) because I can't see the market changing that dramatically in a few months. If so, that's very good news for Q2. It may even be the quarter where they will hit 30% GM which is an important milestone. This quarter is basically the last possibility before quite some time. I will review my model after the official total delivery number is released but gross margin must be higher than last quarter for sure.
 
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Haha, I am dedicated to the cause, but also lazy. :) So I use the itanywhere.no site where we have the S and X delivery tracker. Not sure how they pull the data, but it is refreshing "real time" almost, so they must have a connection to the government registration database. This is the S and this is the X tracker.

It`s not too user friendly for exporting, but I just do a "select all" on the site, copy/paste it into Excel, delete what I don`t need and work with that. You can try and select only the data you need for the specific period by highlighting only those lines in the table, but frankly it is a little tedious so I just select all.

One note, if you want to work with this using a non-English Excel: mine, set to Hungarian, can`t really work with the date format (dd.mm.yyyy) they use, so if you try and sort by that it won`t do it properly. We Hungarians normally use yyyy.mm.dd - you`d think Excel would recognize all popular date formats... but no. So I actually split the date field with "data to columns" using the dot as a separator and then sort.

PS, once the month is over I`ll post another slice of this data to the General Discussion thread. You can actually pull what Models were delivered, so those who normally try and work out the revenue/profit based on the delivery numbers could get an idea of X100D vs X75D for instance. I know it`s only 1 country, but it`s exactly 1 country more than we normally have.

I know that site, but some time ago it changed and I thought you couldn´t view the history of individual registrations with date any more, only the accumulated registrations per month, as seen here: Tesla Registration Stats Thanks for the info.

We´re now only one car shy of the registration number for March, 743 vs 744!
 
Update for the hardcore trackers. I'll do one more Friday night (or on Saturday)
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And June in detail
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Europe_________ May_______ YTD________%
Renault Zoe____
2.095______ 12.957 ______12
Nissan Leaf____ 1.378 _______9.404 _______9
BMW i3 ________1.629_______8.660________8
Mits PHEV______1.842_______8.018________8
VW Passat GTE__1.170_______5.374________5
Tesla Model S____899________5.191________5
MB GLC350e____1.105_______4.589________4
BMW 330e_______712________4.144________4
BMW 225xe A.T.__985________4.063________4
Tesla Model X____741________4.036________4
Volvo XC90 PHEV_359________3.292________3
Audi A3 e-Tron____796________3.083________3
BMW X5 40e______516_______2.567_________2
VW Golf GTE______878_______2.421_________2
VW e-Golf________844_______2.417_________2
Hyun Ioniq EV____541_______2.146_________2
MB C350e________453______1.960__________2
Kia Soul EV_______249______1.804_________2
Nissan e-NV200 ___344______1.783__________2
Audi Q7 e-Tron____321_______1.602__________2
Others_________3.514______15.377
TOTAL_________21.371______104.888

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated on the Top Spot, followed by Renault (13%) in Second Place, while the Third Place is being hardly fought by Nissan (11%), Volkswagen (10%), Tesla and Mercedes, these last two with 9% share. With the Wolfsburg brand now making the restyled Golf plug-ins at full speed, expect it to beat Nissan soon and race Renault for the Second position.

EV Sales: Europe May 2017
 
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