EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Cobos]

Not much is happening. You could say that this March was 2x March 2017 and this April is currently 3x April 2017, but another way to put it is that Q1 2018 was 46% of Q4 2017 and 73% of Q3 2017. And April is currently at 96% of January and 72% of October.

I expect fewer deliveries in 2018 than in 2017 for the S/X, even if we are a bit ahead of where we were last year, because I don't see it as likely that the massive Q3/Q4 deliveries will be repeated.

Also keep in mind there was a 0,5% interest car loan through Tesla that powered the large Q317 and Q417. Today they are offering 1,5% or 2,0% for a new Tesla ordered today. In contrast a very good mortgage interest is now 1,99% while normal is in the 2,5-3,0% range. So the interest they are offering and especially the one before was essentially a price cut. Tesla is growing though so I expect 2018 to be essentially the same as 2017 maybe a tiny bit smaller.
When the M3 arrives in Norway though that is a completely different ball game. Noone has really seen a live M3 even in Norway.

Cobos

 

[Wenche]

Norway is still going strong! So far this month including 18th April, 419 Model S and X have been delivered. Last day 66, 15 with 100 batttery, incl. 2 Performance, rest 75 battery. As far as I have seen in April, about 20-25% are with 100 battery.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe March 2018

 

[schonelucht]

View attachment 295341 Norway is still going strong! So far this month including 18th April, 419 Model S and X have been delivered. Last day 66, 15 with 100 batttery, incl. 2 Performance, rest 75 battery. As far as I have seen in April, about 20-25% are with 100 battery.

It's not just Norway. the Netherlands will also post more than excellent numbers this month (+150%)

 

[hobbes]

Good news coming from Denmark (via reddit):
After Tesla Debacle, Denmark Reconsiders Electric Car Subsidies

That might nicely coincide with Model 3 coming to Europe!

 

[RobStark]

Good news coming from Denmark (via reddit):
After Tesla Debacle, Denmark Reconsiders Electric Car Subsidies

That might nicely coincide with Model 3 coming to Europe!

Lowering taxes on electricity should also help a great deal(43% of Denmark's electricity is renewable and growing).

Encouraging people to switch from natural gas to electric heating/cooking as well as switching to BEVs.

 

[Electroman]

but bad news: Denmark is such a small market, it hardly matters for Tesla's bottom line.

 

[RobStark]

but bad news: Denmark is such a small market, it hardly matters for Tesla's bottom line.

Selling 2500 Gen II cars per year in Denmark is better for Tesla's bottom line than selling 100 Gen II vehicles per year.

 

[Electroman]

What is Gen II cars?

 

[Cobos]

What is Gen II cars?

Model S and Model X

 

[hobbes]

Wow, just submitted 716 Norwegian registrations for April!
With numbers for only 4 countries in, we´re already exceeding January!

Bilsalget - Ofv AS

 

[Yggdrasill]

And *one* registration day into May, we're already at 70 in Norway. That's unprecedented, I think, for *any* month.

 

[hobbes]

And *one* registration day into May, we're already at 70 in Norway. That's unprecedented, I think, for *any* month.

Was just going to prove you wrong with these stats from teslastats.no, but now I realize you are talking about just the first day of any month, not any one day . Still, interesting to compare:

All time highest registration:

Day Cont Month Cont
Model S: 23.03.2015 222 mar.14 1,537
Model X: 19.12.2017 156 des.17 1,429
Total: 19.12.2017 287 des.17 2,462

 

[Troy]

Here are the official UK registration numbers for Q4 2017:

Screenshot source (scroll down)
Data source
Another screenshot

S and X total in Q4 was 1231 units. Our estimate was 1303 units (94.5% accurate). We use estimates because the official numbers are released a few months late. An interesting detail is a drop in large battery sales. It was 52% in Q3 2017 but then dropped to 39% in Q4. Interestingly, for the Model X, the 100 kWh battery is more popular than the 75 but not for the Model S. The advertised range numbers on Tesla's UK webpage are as follows:

Model S 75D: 304 mi
Model S 100D: 393 mi

Model X 75D: 259 mi
Model X 100D: 351 mi

It looks like most buyers think the 259 mi advertised range of the Model X 75D is not enough. These are NEDC rated range numbers. In a few months, they will switch to WLTP and all of the advertised numbers in Europe will drop. It will be interesting to see if more people switch to the largest battery.

Another interesting detail is the popularity of AWD. Model S 75D sales were always higher than 75. We might see the same thing with the Model 3.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Netherlands April 2018

 

[avoigt]

April Numbers for Switzerland, Austria and Germany are weak again. That are no good news and are against the trend of other European countries.

I don't have a good explanation for it other than people wait for the 3. Given that this is still a year wait I am not sure if that is really the reasons.

Zulassungszahlen Schweiz:

Tesla Model S: 49 (April 2017: 77)

Tesla Model X: 18 (April 2017: 22)

April gesamt: 67 (April 2017: 99)

2018 gesamt: 441 (Vorjahresvergleich: 641)

Zulassungszahlen Österreich:

Tesla gesamt: 29 (April 2017: 68)

2018 gesamt: 172 (Vorjahresvergleich: 353)

 

[hobbes]

Headline suggests Europe deliveries pushed out, but hasn´t it been early 2019 for a long time? Maybe one could interpret "first half of next year" in ET (Elon Time) to mean mid next year. But then that´s what I would have expected anyway. Still, it is an update even if it is just confirming the previous estimate.

Fred´s interpretation of the tax rebate timing makes sense to me though.

Tesla Model 3 international expansion is pushed to early and mid 2019, says Elon Musk

 

[avoigt]

Headline suggests Europe deliveries pushed out, but hasn´t it been early 2019 for a long time? Maybe one could interpret "first half of next year" in ET (Elon Time) to mean mid next year. But then that´s what I would have expected anyway. Still, it is an update even if it is just confirming the previous estimate.

Fred´s interpretation of the tax rebate timing makes sense to me though.

Tesla Model 3 international expansion is pushed to early and mid 2019, says Elon Musk

Its exactly the same timeline for Europe as before. Its rather a confirmation that they are on schedule.

I assume that the P AWD will be prioritized as in the US and delivered first. Thats likely the one that I will order.

Agree on the tax part though.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe April 2018

 

[Plotinus]

^^ A strange looking chart given all the ridicule of the competition on this site.

Renault-Nissan is kicking ass. And the i3 is doing consistently well. It's a shame it's getting axed.