EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Troy]

UK YTD numbers at the end of Q3 have been finally published today after 70 days delay. This data is from table 0160 HERE.

Q2 YTD was 349. That means Q3 sales are 670-349= 321. Monthly average for Jul, Aug, Sep is 321/3= 107. We can use the same number as estimates for Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar until the actual numbers are published on 14 April 2016. This date for the next update is shown in the excel files.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It is interesting to compare the European monthly totals in Q4 vs Q2 - the last quarter when Tesla still followed front-loading production in a given quarter disproportionately with cars to be shipped overseas, and then, in the second half of the quarter prioritizing production for NA cars, to maximize quantity of cars that are produced AND delivered within the same quarter.

The increase in October vs. April and November vs. May is almost the same - 34% and 35% respectively. Since Tesla stated their goal to deliver approximately 2,000 more cars that is going to be produced in Q4, it is reasonable to expect that December deliveries will be at least 35% more than deliveries made in June (2096). So if above holds, the total Q4 deliveries might be 1046 + 1392 + 1.35 x 2096 = 5268. Let's see if this speculation can turn out to be true...

 

[HansWurst]

Did someone get the news that France will introduce a 10,000€ (I believe the current level is 7,000€) subsidy for the purchase of EVs (of any brand), if a Diesel built prior to 2001 (prior to 2006, starting in 2016) will be salvaged?
Found this German article about it. Diesel: Frankreich geht gegen den Diesel-Boom an |Â*ZEIT ONLINE

At the same time they want to introduce a malus system for ICEs. The penalty reaches from cars with emissions higher than 131g/km (150€) to a whooping 8000€ for cars with emissions higher than 201g/km.

I think this system is brilliant, because it incentives EVs and de-incentivices ICEs at the same time. Have you guys heard about this before? It is completely new to me and sounds like a huge opportunity.

--Hans

EDIT
To be clear, the article states that the subsidy for the purchase of a car with less than 20g/km CO2 emissions is 6,300€. The bonus for salvaging the old Diesel will be 3,700€. So 10,000€ in total.

 

[Benz]

Did someone get the news that France will introduce a 10,000€ (I believe the current level is 7,000€) subsidy for the purchase of EVs (of any brand), if a Diesel built prior to 2001 (prior to 2006, starting in 2016) will be salvaged?
Found this German article about it. Diesel: Frankreich geht gegen den Diesel-Boom an |Â*ZEIT ONLINE

At the same time they want to introduce a malus system for ICEs. The penalty reaches from cars with emissions higher than 131g/km (150€) to a whooping 8000€ for cars with emissions higher than 201g/km.

I think this system is brilliant, because it incentives EVs and de-incentivices ICEs at the same time. Have you guys heard about this before? It is completely new to me and sounds like a huge opportunity.

--Hans

EDIT
To be clear, the article states that the subsidy for the purchase of a car with less than 20g/km CO2 emissions is 6,300€. The bonus for salvaging the old Diesel will be 3,700€. So 10,000€ in total.

Yes, I had read about the 10,000€ subsidy. Which is good, of course.

The price of diesel will be increased by 3.5 cents. And the price of petrol will be increased by 2 cents. That's too little to make any substantial difference, I think.

 

[HansWurst]

Yes, I had read about the 10,000€ subsidy. Which is good, of course.

The price of diesel will be increased by 3.5 cents. And the price of petrol will be increased by 2 cents. That's too little to make any substantial difference, I think.

It is true that the tax increase on fuel is not substantial, but I think the penalty of buying an ICE car with more than 201g/km CO2 emission of 8,000€ is imho. The Mercedes GLS 400 4MATIC (petrol) for example would be subject to the maximum payment. That would increase the base price of the car by ca. 11% (from ca. 75,000€ to ca. 83,000€).
If the requirements would be toughened just a little bit, such that the highest penalty starts from 199g/km instead of 201g/km even all petrol variants of the Mercedes GLE will be affected.

EDIT.
BMW M3 and higher is also affected. So are the X5 and X6 petrol variants (apart from the smallest petrol X5)
Diesel engines are a different matter, they have lower CO2 emissions. Kind of ironic that a regulatory framework, intended to reduce Diesel cars, will make them more attractive vs. petrol engines.

 

[Benz]

If they really would want to do something that would be strategically in favour of EVs, then they should think about a substantial charging network that would offer free charging to all Plug-In models on the whole continent of Europe. Of course one would have to buy some sort of a card in order to have access to that charging network, but the price for such a card should not be too high though. So, it actually would not be free, but I meant that there would be no payment every time you would charge your car. That would be really convenient, and people will appreciate that. The investment for such a continental charging network would be enormous but the results will be substantial too, I think.

 

[hobbes]

Update from MrBacardi: 123 registrations in Norway for Dec 1-12: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
Compares to 65 for Nov 1-14... (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!

 

[hobbes]

Found an interesting statistics thread on the UK SpeakEV forum: UK Model S Build and Delivery Dates (was: How Many UK Model S) | Speak EV - Electric Car Forums

This graph featured there shows accelerating orders:

Seems like the british customers get a GB car number which they post there - anyone got an idea where that comes from and what it means exactly? Is it actually cumulative total number of cars?? Cannot imagine that because it has reached 3000 lately while our count is only at 884 for 2015.

 

[Lessmog]

Found an interesting statistics thread on the UK SpeakEV forum: UK Model S Build and Delivery Dates (was: How Many UK Model S) | Speak EV - Electric Car Forums

This graph featured there shows accelerating orders:

View attachment 104234

Seems like the british customers get a GB car number which they post there - anyone got an idea where that comes from and what it means exactly? Is it actually cumulative total number of cars?? Cannot imagine that because it has reached 3000 lately while our count is only at 884 for 2015.

Wild guess: Maybe the last figures in VIN for RHD cars? One character designates left- or right hand drive I think, so the VINs don't necessarily have to be consecutive but might follow different cumulations? 3000 being WW total in that series. Repeating: Just a wild guess.

 

[Brunel]

We seem to get consecutive numbering when we go to our 4 year service pack choice. Mine was around 1400 and I ordered in Jan and collected in Sept. So it does ring true. Been so many new Model S with recent number plates (post September). SupChargers getting busy too!

 

[hobbes]

We seem to get consecutive numbering when we go to our 4 year service pack choice. Mine was around 1400 and I ordered in Jan and collected in Sept. So it does ring true. Been so many new Model S with recent number plates (post September). SupChargers getting busy too!

Wow - am I getting this right? The GB customers have a consecutive service pack number only for GB (not all right-hand-drive as lessmog suggested)?! That means that way you can actually count GB orders/deliveries?! Looking at the graph the "today" line cuts the graph where the X-axis says something like 2200 cars. Subtracting 1400 assuming Brunel´s car was ordered in the beginning of January (when was it ordered exactly, Brunel?) we are left with 800 while the wiki says 884. That matches pretty well for the given uncertainties! Thanks for the feedback.

The official table for the UK only gives 718 cars for 2014 though and none before that (should be around 1400). Where does that offset come from?

---Updated---

Made a mistake in the last paragraph - 1400 was number in January for orders, which is obviously ahead of what was delivered at that time. So everything does make sense!

 

[Lessmog]

Love the taste of data feedback! Morning, noon and night.
Thx brunel.

 

[Brunel]

I wrote the number down somewhere, but who knows where. Think it was a high number perhaps 1460 ish and I confirmed around Jan 25th. Since the service pack is a UK specific offering it makes sense that the numbering is geographically tied to UK. Not foolproof though.

 

[hobbes]

I wrote the number down somewhere, but who knows where. Think it was a high number perhaps 1460 ish and I confirmed around Jan 25th. Since the service pack is a UK specific offering it makes sense that the numbering is geographically tied to UK. Not foolproof though.

Great, thanks! No need to figure out the number more exactly than that.

One last question: I guess that not everybody gets the service pack, right? That would mean there are even more cars than service pack numbers...

 

[Brunel]

Wishful thinking, but it clearly identifies the car number not amount of service packs! I did not choose the prepaid servicing and the option has disappeared, but no one will have got my car number.

 

[hobbes]

We seem to get consecutive numbering when we go to our 4 year service pack choice.

Wishful thinking, but it clearly identifies the car number not amount of service packs! I did not choose the prepaid servicing and the option has disappeared, but no one will have got my car number.

Probably I misunderstood your first quote, seems like a contradiction though - can you clarify? Thanks.

 

[Brunel]

@hobbes in mytesla there is a button to review and select the prepaid service, click through and it tells you the price in a document format like most Tesla letterhead paperwork. At the bottom it says the car number. One can proceed or not, hence the service "choice". The button disappears after a while so I cannot check the exact wording. Sounds like this process continues for new orders and this data is where the speakev tracking comes from. Seems the most accurate and helpful since our official stats are so delayed. In other good news, there is the expected massive push for end of year, with many Xmas eve and New Years Eve deliveries.

 

[smac]

Wild guess: Maybe the last figures in VIN for RHD cars? One character designates left- or right hand drive I think, so the VINs don't necessarily have to be consecutive but might follow different cumulations? 3000 being WW total in that series. Repeating: Just a wild guess.

It's not VIN related, it is an order / car number before VIN assignment. One of the speakEV guys noticed it on some communication, and it appears to be a window into some back-office system UK are running. IOW it could be that it's total orders (i.e. including post delivery options, like service / CHAdeMO adapters / etc. etc.) coming out of their Sales Order Processing systems. I have an invoice number slap bang in the data set with the right sort of date vs number (for a non pre paid service). So leaving sales orders "open" until the pre-paid service window option has expired, and the mytesla piece updating a secondary line on that order would explain the "sticky" sequence numbers.

I'm sure they've had good numbers since the D cars came on stream (we had a big delay here remember, so pent up a lot of pent up deliveries) but I'd be slightly skeptical of those sort of numbers all turning into 2015 cars.

As for a big push to pick up the car on New Years Eve, personally I'd much rather pick it up on new years day and have a 2016 registered car! So they can push but there may not be the pull.

Unfortunately we will have to wait for the UK Govt to release the whole year figures to be 100% certain.

 

[Lessmog]

It's not VIN related, it is an order / car number before VIN assignment. One of the speakEV guys noticed it on some communication, and it appears to be a window into some back-office system UK are running. IOW it could be that it's total orders (i.e. including post delivery options, like service / CHAdeMO adapters / etc. etc.) coming out of their Sales Order Processing systems. I have an invoice number slap bang in the data set with the right sort of date vs number (for a non pre paid service). So leaving sales orders "open" until the pre-paid service window option has expired, and the mytesla piece updating a secondary line on that order would explain the "sticky" sequence numbers.

I'm sure they've had good numbers since the D cars came on stream (we had a big delay here remember, so pent up a lot of pent up deliveries) but I'd be slightly skeptical of those sort of numbers all turning into 2015 cars.

As for a big push to pick up the car on New Years Eve, personally I'd much rather pick it up on new years day and have a 2016 registered car! So they can push but there may not be the pull.

Unfortunately we will have to wait for the UK Govt to release the whole year figures to be 100% certain.

Thanks for your data-rich input and clarification!

 

[hobbes]

Alright, the Denmark data is out:

According to this, there are "only" 465 Model S for November. Granted, that's massive but sadly also far away from the 2000 cars until year end. Let's see how December goes...

PS: If my math is not off, then the Model S is the 4th most sold car for November in DK. Also, the publisher cautions that the final data from the tax authorities is not in so the data might shift slightly.

Troy found out the official Denmark number was updated - it now stands at 525!
De Danske Bilimportører - Statistik

- - - Updated - - -

@brunel and smac: Thanks for clarification. This seems to be a very good source for us to estimate GB sales in between the official quarterly updates.