The plan could easily change a few times before 2025, but the goal is real enough. We are going to move away from fossil fuels as soon as possible. But for it to be in any way realistic, we need a good assortment of EVs in every segment, and it's very hard to say when that will be in place.
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Wow. I am impressed, seems like you´re the only country that is really serious about cutting CO2. Not the typical few % here, few % there - just aim for all cars to be EVs.
There must be some concrete means in the discussion to achieve that - do you know what the strategy is? EV incentives or CO2 tax?
There are already some serious taxes on cars that emit a lot of CO2. Those taxes will probably increase every year, with a larger cost per gram of CO2 per km, and a lower starting point. At the same time diesel and gasoline taxes will probably increased every year.
We will see some taxes on EVs starting in 2018, VAT first and foremost, so the taxes on ICE cars will have to be increased pretty drastically to maintain the relative favourable conditions for the EVs. A poor execution here can finish off the EV sales. (Denmark is an example we should not repeat.)
At some point the percentage of fossil cars will start to really fall off, and at that point a ban is likely to get sufficient support. It would probably be a gradual ban, first the most polluting cars (non-hybrids, maybe?), then all non-plug-in, then all ICE cars. Something like that. You might also see provisions where you can apply for exceptions if you have a very specific use case, and then these provisions will be phased out at some point.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
California is drawing up plans to ban the sale of new ICEv and reduce gasoline consumption by 50% by 2030. In the legacy automotive business that is 1.5 product cycles away.
California Aims to Ban Internal Combustion Engines by 2030
Outside of the small North European countries look for cities and subnational governments to get the ball rolling on this, e.g. Quebec.
California Aims to Ban Internal Combustion Engines by 2030
Outside of the small North European countries look for cities and subnational governments to get the ball rolling on this, e.g. Quebec.
Very nice source. And finally I can see the effect Norwegian EV incentives has on European EV sales. It seems YTD 2016 sales of the Golf e-golf and GTE are approx 1500 cars each for all of Europe.
Sales in Norway are 1250 and 450 respectively. Which does tell Julian's point about the Golf EV seem to offer poor value except in countries with good EV incentives. Tiny Norway now has 80% of the European market for the e-Golf...
Cobos
Will Norway also stop exporting oil and gas? What about that other major Norwegian industry - shipping - which is an extremely polluting industry?
I don't intend to bash Norway, but it seems to be kind of strange to position yourself as a kind of champion of CO2 reductions when your economy is based on fossil fuels.
No, the Russians would invade with the EU's blessing.
(Plug for TV series "Occupied".)
Yes, eventually we will stop. But we will extract the gas/oil from where we already has started. Allowance to open new area for searching for, and start to extract gas/oil is a heated debate here.
An another heated debate is land-electricity. - instead of letting the platforms burn gas to make electricity on the platforms, we intend to use cables from land to provide clean hydro-power here.
And we do a lot to try to make even the boats as "green" as possible. Here is an article about how Tesla now is transported (a test by now) around the coast of Norway in boats driven by natural gas: (in Norwegian) http://maritime.no/nyheter/leverer-tesla-pa-dora-til-hele-vestlandet/
And I do expect you all have heard about the all-electric car-ferry? Soon it will not be alone....
And we are arguing to let natural gas from the North See replace coal to generate electricity down in the Europe mainland and GB. So yes, we are very well aware of this strange dilemma, and try to minimize it as much as we can, while still earning money on the oil, so we can afford Teslas
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Europe starts to report for March and it's all good news : Sweden 142 (up from 98 last year but down from 172 last quarter), Austria 127 (up from 63 last year and 42 last quarter) and Finland 18 (up from 11 last year and 10 last quarter) Based on these preliminary numbers it is reasonable to expect around 3200-3500 deliveries in Europe which compares to 3453 last year and 5347 last quarter.
mmd
Active Member
Is there any update from Norway? Are the Norwegian offices closed for Easter? Mr. Bacardi hasn't posted anything since March 20.
don't expect good news from EU for Q1. Hope China will make some play in Q1 delivery report. Sth. I'd like to see before next Monday opening:
1) beat 16K guidance by 500 or 1000;
2) strong model X delivery, 3000 or 3500. note X delivery weigh more than S;
3) China is back and very strong delivery and demand, I see Q1 China delivery alone could be on par with entire EU;
1) beat 16K guidance by 500 or 1000;
2) strong model X delivery, 3000 or 3500. note X delivery weigh more than S;
3) China is back and very strong delivery and demand, I see Q1 China delivery alone could be on par with entire EU;
Great find!
This indicate that the table for UK may need to be updated: United Kingdom | EAFO
2015: 838 (991 estimated)
2016 YTD: 121 (321 estimated)
Go Model 3 !!
I believe these are the official numbers from Norway:
487 in March, 705 for Q1.
Bilsalget i mars - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS
487 in March, 705 for Q1.
Bilsalget i mars - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS
Good one! For 2015 only the last quarter is an estimate so it makes sense to modify that estimate to match the total. This would bring Q4 deliveries to 56 per month instead of 107. For 2016 we can estimate 60 in January and 61 in February. How does that sound to everyone?
We are currently up to approx 2100 deliveries in 2016Q1. Still to account for : UK (100), CH(300), NL (250), DE (150), FR (100) en DEN (100). Estimated total of 3100 deliveries this quarter in Europe.
2015Q1 contained the initial rush of dual drive cars for Norway. Discounting for them means demand is slightly up. However, Europe March deliveries are worth about 18% of yearly demand, making that number (only) slightly over 10k. Is the weak EURO and the economic situation in Norway finally catching up with model S demand? Or are we waiting for X deliveries?
Europe only has like 5k Model X reservations and several Norwegian forum members on this forum have already said they cancelled due to the big changes in pricing compared to when they reserved. I don't think the Model S will all many units in Europe we are not that big on SUV and the price is just insane. I was actually surprised this Q1 had that many sales in Norway because it's actually more than last Q3 and almost as many as in the big Q4 push. (Kinda killed my prediction.. oops) Only guess is that some cancelled they X reservation and got a S instead.
The next price increase won't help much either...
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