EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Fallenone]

Malthus was 100% full of *sugar*.

Malthus stated "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man". The first UK census revealed a population of 10.5M. Malthus stated the UK would starve at 20M. Today the UK's population is 64M with the highest standard of living it has ever been. Global population in 1800 was about 1B and today it is 7.5B. Insufficient nutrition/starvation is caused by bad political decisions not a lack of arable land, fresh water, and fertilizer.

UK (and US and other first world countries) achieved this at the expense of other countries' environment under capitalism, globalization, and consumptionism.

Malthus definitely didn't predict how technology progressed and didn't see globalization coming. But the essence of his argument is not invalidated yet.

 

[RobStark]

UK (and US and other first world countries) achieved this at the expense of other countries' environment under capitalism, globalization, and consumptionism.

Malthus definitely didn't predict how technology progressed and didn't see globalization coming. But the essence of his argument is not invalidated yet.

Well fed countries achieved this with sound economic policy and stable governments.

Poor starving countries in the 20th century largely achieved it through socialism,nationalist import substitution policies, and the elevation of ideology over common sense.

Globalization had been going on for Millenia, Malthus lived at the height of the British Empire.

The essence of his argument has been proven wrong for two centuries.

 

[dc_h]

UK (and US and other first world countries) achieved this at the expense of other countries' environment under capitalism, globalization, and consumptionism.

Malthus definitely didn't predict how technology progressed and didn't see globalization coming. But the essence of his argument is not invalidated yet.

I disliked as a disagree. Food production has barely begun to move to urban green farming and emerging manufactured meats and other complex foods. Renewable energy will reduce our energy costs and make energy required for developed living standards available to nearly everyone. 3D printing etc.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Just a quick reminder. This is EU outlook and situation thread. Why are you discussing food growth?

 

[Model 3]

Elbilsalget måned for måned
It looks like 601 MX and 247 MS.
The official numbers will be out early next week...

And now this numbers are official confirmed:
Bilsalget i september

 

[thanar]

Vacation traffic to Greece is mainly to the islands and by plane. And that is very low cost tickets. To my opinion low priority to have SuC there.
Using Superchargers in Austria and Slovenia we can now already reach all North Croatia. That is not bad at all for vacation traffic.

Actually, the last couple of years we had lots of vacation road traffic here in Northern Greece coming from Austria, Germany, Hungary, Croatia and Romania.

 

[hobbes]

My highlight for the month: Germany had 377 Tesla registrations, all time record (followed by March at 267)! This quarter is up 30% over Q4 2015.

 

[Gerardf]

My highlight for the month: Germany had 377 Tesla registrations, all time record (followed by March at 267)! This quarter is up 30% over Q4 2015.

Indeed great. I am equally impressed by the 292 for Sweden !

Also a great number for The Netherlands :
https://www.raivereniging.nl/ecm/?id=workspace://SpacesStore/a7f7fdac-9999-4b7b-93f3-0ad48ba8b598

TESLA MODEL S 227
TESLA MODEL X 201
TESLA Total september 428

 

[dandurston]

Only 5 MS and 6 MX in Norway thus far in October. Pretty clear indication they got the September surge fully delivered there.

 

[schonelucht]

Europe has seen a strong September. Overall sales will end up somewhere around 1700 for the Model S (up 5% quarter on quarter and up 30% year on year) and 1300 for the Model X.

Going into October, while Norway probably will see little action as indicated by @dandurston , other countries have traditionally had more 'spill' after a heavy quarter. I am hoping for overall 1200 to 1500 cars in October. Further out 1000 in November and 2500 in December. Quarterly total of 5000 cars or a slight increase of 4800 this quarter.

 

[Primed101]

I am not as optimistic for increased sales in Europe for Month 10 and 11. It is clear that Tesla pulled forward some MS deliveries to achieve Q3 targets as well as aggressively upgrading some people who had M3 deposits to MS. Anecdotal evidence I know, but if you read the forums this clearly took place.

A lot of people are shorting TSLA, I don't necessarily agree with that, but I think that sales activity in Month 12 will give a good indication of how the quarter is doing. Whilst I dont expect another 'Musk memo', if deals are being done, it will be clear that there is a push for numbers. Overall, achieving same figures to Q3 for Q4 will be a good outcome, personally I just don't see that happening.

 

[Borka]

Sweden had a good month as well with registrations of 292 new Teslas in september. 163 S and 129 X.

source: bilsweden

 

[Yggdrasill]

The proposed budget for 2017 in Norway outlines maintaining the purchase tax exemption for BEVs until at least 2020. Previously, it was supposed to start being phased out in 2018. (The purchase tax consists of 25% VAT, as well as a tax based on power, weight and emissions, which could amount to as much as the VAT or even more.)

This is great news for the Model 3.

 

[Model 3]

The proposed budget for 2017 in Norway outlines maintaining the purchase tax exemption for BEVs until at least 2020. Previously, it was supposed to start being phased out in 2018. (The purchase tax consists of 25% VAT, as well as a tax based on power, weight and emissions, which could amount to as much as the VAT or even more.)

This is great news for the Model 3.

... and while it was expected that the exemption for paying for parking, toll roads and ferries would soon end, it does outline that it will be left to the local communities to decide if it will be free or not, but it will get a "roof" not to extend half the price for the ICE cars. While it is sad that it probably will not continue to be free, this would at least be sustainable for a longer period of time.

 

[Atlantis]

I am not as optimistic for increased sales in Europe for Month 10 and 11. It is clear that Tesla pulled forward some MS deliveries to achieve Q3 targets as well as aggressively upgrading some people who had M3 deposits to MS. Anecdotal evidence I know, but if you read the forums this clearly took place.

A lot of people are shorting TSLA, I don't necessarily agree with that, but I think that sales activity in Month 12 will give a good indication of how the quarter is doing. Whilst I dont expect another 'Musk memo', if deals are being done, it will be clear that there is a push for numbers. Overall, achieving same figures to Q3 for Q4 will be a good outcome, personally I just don't see that happening.

In the other hand, we can see here Tesla Registration Stats that in Norway, for now, almost all X delivered were X90D and XP90D, as Tesla pushed first for the high end versions to spur final Q3 financials results, as usual. Now, we can supposed that, in these 5500 cars which are in transit, there is a lot of Norway X60D and X75D, and the same for the rest of Europe. The XP100D will only be delivered in Europe in the last month of the year, for spurring one more time financial results at the end of the year, I suppose.

 

[geneclean55]

UK numbers held up well for Q3. Looks like the biggest European market for MS this quarter! Brexit effects not transpiring yet?

I thought the UK numbers were based off estimates from the SMMT.CO.UK website that doesn't distinguish between MS and MX sales, so I am trying to figure out how that distinction was made on the 'Tesla Europe Registration Stats' table.

I wasn't aware that right-hand drive MX were being delivered yet. Hopefully we get a surge in MX deliveries for the UK market in Q4 similar to that seen in Norway during Q3.

 

[Spidy]

UK numbers held up well for Q3. Looks like the biggest European market for MS this quarter! Brexit effects not transpiring yet?

The main effect short term would be the Pound and Tesla has not changed the pricing in the UK. There is a thread on TMC where people say it would happen any day now (or maybe it already did, not following those prices). But all deliveries and orders in Q3 were still the old pricing.

 

[Troy]

@geneclean55,
You are right. There was an error with UK estimates. I fixed it now. Model X estimate should be zero because I think UK deliveries haven't started yet. Btw, these estimates (shown in yellow) will be replaced with actual numbers when Q3 numbers are published on gov.uk website on 8th Dec. When you click on UK estimates, a page will open that explains how the latest number (364 units) was calculated.

 

[nasatech]

Played around with the data from Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
For comparison, Dec was 373, Mar 487, Jun 291 (see Tesla Europe Registration Stats).

Would call 550 a conservative estimate (regression for all of Sep up to today), they´d hit around 700 if they kept going as fast as during the last few days, so my guess is on 650 .

Impressive how many Xs are being delivered!

View attachment 195635

Good guess. The total registration for September alone was 601 ending with total this year so far at over 800

 

[schonelucht]

Couple of remarks

• With Switzerland, all the stats for Europe are complete and it's been a very good month leading to the second best quarter ever for Tesla. Even better : every single country did well whereas with earlier large European quarters it often was one or two countries only pulling the cart. Final numbers are 3130 Model S (down from 3517 last year but up from 2894 last quarter) and 1834 Model X (60 last quarter)
• UK prices increased by 2-3%. That's a very timid increase given how far the British pound sank after Brexit. Even with the new prices the cheapest Model S goes for 45 100 pound (ex VAT) which is $56 000 or $10 000 cheaper than US prices. Those are prices that come very close to the cost of goods and leave no room for margin, especially when taking shipping in to account. At the same time, Euro and Norwegian crown prices are higher than dollar prices ($72 000 versus $66 000). When taking shipping into account, the result is probably that the impact of currency exchange factors for Europe on gross and net profit margin is likely very small