EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Spidy]

I think some of those January sales were probably meant for December and Tesla just had a bit better timing last year, which now of course makes the numbers look twice as good. With overall rather low numbers just 10-20 cars will of course already make a big % difference.

Also Tesla had around 600 Inventory cars visible in Q4 for Europa/HK and now it's down to 130. Not sure how many there really were and how many were exactly sold in Q4 vs. January, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed a lot of Inventory cars as those still offered unlimited supercharging.

They are even having sales events in Germany tomorrow where they have several cars on display and those will also still have unlimited Supercharging. So they definitely seem to be pushing sales more than last year. Preiserhöhung ab 20.1.17 • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

 

[schonelucht]

Eneco gave an update on the number of Powerwalls sold in Belgium. De Standaard (well respected journal here, however in Dutch so difficult to link here) quoted their spokesperson that they are installing about 2 per week and are up to around one hundred power walls. Results are reported as being 'disappointed' but expected since the financials for individual households don't work out (savings of around 300EUR/year for a cost of 6000-9000EUR)

 

[NannerAirCraft]

So those 100 powerwalls would just be the early Powerwall 1 right? Or have they started shipping the Powerwall 2 there now.

 

[schonelucht]

Those 100 are Powerwall 1.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

So it looks like Norway ended at 54 Model S sales and 43 Model X sales for a total of 97 sales in February. Seems like most of the bump in January was just an overlap from the huge number of vehicles in transit from Q4. Hopefully we see a good uptick in sales for March.

 

[schonelucht]

They actually managed 56 and 44 for exactly 100! Still down from 170 last quarter and 113 from last year. Austria is much better at 61, up from 41 last quarter and 25 last year! There is reason to hope that the latter is more indicative of the number of deliveries allocated through Europe since Norway (and Switzerland) is direct delivery instead of going through Tilburg like everyone else.

 

[schonelucht]

There is clearly something not going well in Europe for Tesla. Delivery growth as reported here has been non-existant and the latest financial report by Tesla confirms our findings. Last year, sales in the US more than doubled, those in China tripled. Meanwhile sales in Norway declined by nearly 10% while the rest of the world (including rest of Europe) saw a very slight decrease in revenue. Since Tesla opened new markets last year, it is reasonable to assume existing European markets declined by a similar amount as Norway. Why the divergence with China and the US? Is the Model X just not a car that is as attractive to Europeans as it is in the US or (presumably) China?

 

[RobStark]

Meanwhile sales in Norway declined by nearly 10% while the rest of the world (including rest of Europe) saw a very slight decrease in revenue.

The tax Changes in Denmark accounted for over -15% change in sales for Europe as a whole from 2015 to 2016.

Regarding Norway, there is only so many cars in the $70k-$160k class that a nation of 5M people can buy, even a very rich one.

 

[Model 3]

Regarding Norway, there is only so many cars in the $70k-$160k class that a nation of 5M people can buy, even a very rich one.

... and don't forget the exchange rate changes the last few years - USD has moved up while NOK has gone down. This cars is a lot more expensive here now then they was a few years ago. A bare-bone TMS60 is now at 628.600 NOK, while the same was at around 450.000 NOK if I remember correct back in 2013.

 

[AustinPowers]

Same in Germany. Model S was expensive to begin with, but nowadays it is totally overpriced for most people.

Model X even more so, as there is no version sub 107K Euro to begin with, which minimizes its market appeal dramatically. Just for comparison, a Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid starts at about 87K Euro delivered, that's a 20K Euro difference!

Model 3 can't come soon enough over here.

 

[30seconds]

S+X has / is filling it's purpose as the bridge to the 3. At this point growth of the S+X in the EU is a nice to have, but not a "must have" for the company's success or overall transition to EVs.

 

[AustinPowers]

S+X has / is filling it's purpose as the bridge to the 3. At this point growth of the S+X in the EU is a nice to have, but not a "must have" for the company's success or overall transition to EVs.

May be, but people from the US were wondering why the Model S and X are not selling too well in Europe currently and the enormous price difference compared to the US is a major factor.

In other threads Americans are posting that people over there are cross-shopping the Model 3 with a Model S or X. Over here that is just not an option.Think about it, people over here get a well equipped luxury car, even plug-in hybrid, for less than a base Model X. Who would spend far more for considerably less, even if she/he is eco-minded. That is why many people wait for Model 3 to arrive. You could get a maxed out Model 3 for less than the most basic Model X.

And in case you were wondering how I arrive at that calculation: simple, I add all the Model S or X options, which are about 55 to 60K Euro to the most likely Model 3 base price over here (around 40K Euro seems to be the consensus). With that I would arrive at about 95 to 100K Euro for a maxed out Model 3, which is still about 10K Euro less than the basic bare bones entry-level Model X.

I think that says it all.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Agreeing with the above, it is also worth pointing out that Tesla sees no need to try to boost European sales at the cost of margins. The current global demand keeps Freemont humming along at near (current) capacity all the time, so as long as someone around the world is willing to pay up, why would they decrease price over here?

It may be, that only a European factory will allow that to happen, but even that may take a backseat to a Chinese factory.

Also, as Rob pointed out, it is totally unrealistic to expect a S/X growth curve to go into infinity. I always wonder when analyst raise the alarm because of "plateauing Not del S sales" in the US. Really? Outsells everything in its segment... What else do you expect?

Finally, I don't expect the X to be as popular in Europe as the US. We don't like aircraft carriers as much as the States. Having said that, X has room to grow in the US...

 

[Model 3]

It may be, that only a European factory will allow that to happen, but even that may take a backseat to a Chinese factory.

What an European factory can do is to decouple the price from the fluctuations in the valuates (at lest in the Euro-markeds). I guess that will gives lower prices here in situations with a strong USD (like now), or at least more stable prices.

 

[trayloader]

GERMANY February 2017: +122% YoY
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 07/2017 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im Februar 2017

check "Diagrams"

 

[mrdoubleb]

What an European factory can do is to decouple the price from the fluctuations in the valuates (at lest in the Euro-markeds). I guess that will gives lower prices here in situations with a strong USD (like now), or at least more stable prices.

Also: Transportation costs...

 

[schonelucht]

February isn't that bad after all and Norway seems on track for a good March. After not even 3 full days, we are have a quarter of the deliveries of last month.

 

[mrdoubleb]

February isn't that bad after all and Norway seems on track for a good March. After not even 3 full days, we are have a quarter of the deliveries of last month.

yeah, that German number for February is pretty solid, I didn't see that one coming. Overall February seems to bring find "second month of the quarter" numbers, so if the last month goes as usual, then with the January bonus we should have a pretty solid q1!

 

[RobStark]

EXCLUSIVE-PSA agrees to buy Opel from GM, wins board approval -sources

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

February numbers for The Netherlands are in and they show healthy growth: last year 65 Model S, this year 153 Model S and 38 Model X (in January it was 63 and 50).