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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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Tesla here in Norway has been running a almost zero % interest loan for new purchases here the last 3 months I believe that seems to have pushed many from considering to actually going through with their orders. This is ending now in July they say so it might slow down, but those cars will be delivered all through Q3 so might give nice numbers for Q3 here in Norway.

Same in the Netherlands. 0.4% financing rate on financial leases. It's a discount in another name, but it is a little bit more opaque to calculate since we don't know how the distribution of the cost of that discount between Tesla and their leasing partner.
 
Anyone has an alternative source for France? If i read our usual source's (Avec France) last Twitter post correctly, they are out until September 7th.

Other than that, we have Luxembourg left, but will probably be there in a day or two and a brave soul to calculate "other Europe". I have managed to find most everything else that was still missing and also updated the German numbers with the correct S/X split. If anyone has time to validate...
 
Hi, @mrdoubleb. We can use an estimate for France for now. Last year, Tesla registrations in France in July were a few units more than January and April. So my estimate is 75 units. We can use this until the actual number is released. By the way, a second source would be the European Union web site here. We both have 644 units for France at the end of June. But this site is always a few weeks late to update.
 
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Hi, @mrdoubleb. We can use an estimate for France for now. Last year, Tesla registrations in France in July were a few units more than January and April. So my estimate is 75 units. We can use this until the actual number is released. By the way, a second source would be the European Union web site here. We both have 644 units for France at the end of June. But this site is always a few weeks late to update.
Thanks! Couple of things...

I have submitted the Danish numbers again with your correction as @schonelucht rejected your entry for some reason. I can only think this was unintentional as I double checked your figures and they were correct : 1 S and 4 X for July.

I also tried to approve your French estimate but for some reason the Google app on my phone says I have "read only" on those fields. Weird.
 
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In case anyone's curious, while Iceland is a relatively small market, our government has been taking a strong stand on electric cars, and we fluctuate between #2 and #3 in Europe in EV sales as a share of total vehicle sales (Norway is of course #1). Some of the more recent news:

Breytir byggingareglugerð vegna rafbíla

Summary: they're looking to change building regulations to require all new construction to be ready for EV charger installation. Quote from the environment minister:

In order to do so, of course, we need infrastructure, not just roads. We need to be able to charge these cars, these electric cars, and we must assume their presence in the building code, that new construction has this infrastructure. And just like we have assumed in the building code that it's necessary to pipe water to houses, this is the new reality and we need to react to it, and I intend to pursue this path.

Umhverfisráðherra stefnir að því rafbílar taki yfir innan þrettán ára - Visir

Title: "Environment Minister targets electric cars taking over within 13 years"

First paragraphs:

The policy is that the entire car fleet in Iceland will be electric- and methane powered before 2030, in order to react to climate change. This is according to Björt Ólafsdóttir, environmental minister, in an interview with RÚV this evening.

The minister considers electric cars to be the primary weapon of Icelanders in the struggle against climate change. She points to the abundance of green energy which Icelanders have which is possible to use to drive an electric car fleet with.

„We have all of this green energy and in our action plan concerning climate change we're targeting to spread electric and methane cars to replace the entire vehicle fleet,“ said Björt in the evening news on RÚV this evening.

The last policy confirmed by parliament was to have the vehicle fleet only 40% powered by renewable energy by 2030. This would be a much more aggressive target.

The first article is from June, the second just a week ago.

The short of it: it looks like the current incentive - that EVs below 6m ISK ($57k) can continue to deduct VAT (24% of total purchase price) and don't get charged any vörugjald (a fee based on emissions, can be as high as 65% of the total purchase price) will not be disappearing any time soon - if anything, we may see some even more aggressive moves to electrify.

ON (Orka Náttúrunnar) is scheduled to complete a ring of CHAdeMOs around the country at 100km intervals by the end of this year. It's yet to be seen when Tesla plans to enter the market, however. Previous owners were anecdotally told by Tesla that they'd come here after 100 sales (there's something like 70 Teslas in the country currently). I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in that. Despite having high per-capita EV sales, Tesla sales have been low due to the 6m ISK limit on the VAT deduction and the lack of accessible sales and service infrastructure. The former limit will not apply to the Model 3, but obviously Tesla needs to actually come here if they don't want to cede our market to competitors.

Anecdotally: Model 3 seems to be getting a lot of interest. The population density here is low, so Icelanders love range. Safety is also big, as we have a long, wet winter with dangerous road conditions; Tesla's reputation in this regard is a big selling point. The press has also run a number of positive articles about people who imported Teslas and drive them around the country. That said, the main negative I hear is concerns about ground clearance. I don't know how much that will hurt Tesla. If they don't offer a tow hook that will probably also hurt them a bit, as towing small trailers is fairly popular.

General stats about the Iceland market.

Population: 344k (6,5% of Norway)
Tourists per year: Around 2 million (1 million visited between January and June this year); 2m is 56% of Norway's annual tourism.
Vehicles per capita: 0.745 (5th in the world - US is 3rd, Norway 17th)
Per-capita income: Was about 50k in 2016, but our currency has spiked since then; we're probably now in the top 10 globally.
Gas prices: nearly $8 USD/gal (3rd in the world)
Residential electricity is generally $0.10-0.15/kWh. Commercial electricity is dirt cheap; we basically export electricity by importing aluminum ore and exporting refined aluminum.
 
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Hi
Spain is seemingly gathering speed. EV Sales reports 27 Model S in July, and 125 total 2017. I think we could raise Spain to the main sheet in wiki soon.
And overall the spanish ev market is booming.

Honestly, I am a little surprised, given that the S & X are way too large for the Spanish market (expect the 3 to do very well). It might be that with the recent supercharger additions, Teslas become practical to get to the beach.
 
Honestly, I am a little surprised, given that the S & X are way too large for the Spanish market (expect the 3 to do very well). It might be that with the recent supercharger additions, Teslas become practical to get to the beach.
Yep, although economy isn't great at the moment, there is still tons of rich people there - natives and expats. For them the size is not that critical I think. They don't live in small old roman time villages where roads are super narrow. They fly high in motorways and big cities/country houses. If you can live with Lambos in Spain, you can live with Teslas also. But I agree, 3 will be a big hit there as everywhere else.
 
20170808_Tesla.jpg
 
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YTD Spain sales are 199 units (S & X). I think Spain will become bigger market than Italy quite soon. Spain has great wind and solar resources, so progressing to electric driving should be quite natural over there. Hopefully economy keeps on getting better.
 
*Great* news for Tesla in Iceland:

Auknar ívilnanir vegna vistvænna bíla

Increased benefits for green cars
13.08.2017 - 19:09

Benefits for purchasing green cars will be renewed for three years instead of one, in accordance with a bill which the financial minister hopes will be confirmed in parliament in the fall parliamentary session. This simplifies for people to reserve, for example, electric cars which have a long purchase delay.

The environmental minister recently announced that she wanted to target that the country's vehicle fleet would be electric - and methane-powered by the year 2030. The government has granted benefits on fees because og green cars, but these benefits have been confirmed only one year at a time. The financial minister says tthat they plan to apply a special emphesis on changes on this arrangement.

"It has always been confirmed one year at a time, but we are considering now confirming it for three years at a time at the end of this year."

Benedikt says that this is done to encourage people to invest in green energy and a longer benefits timeperiod can be important in that regard.He mentions as an example that the manufacturer Tesla has released a new and cheaper car on the marketplace, but the delivery date on such a car isn't until 2019.

"If we confirm a bill of this variety then people need not be scared to reserve such cars."

The government has proposed an increase in the CO2 fee and also on diesel and Benedikt says that with this consumption will be managed.

"Some don't understand it and believe that this is some sort of special tax burden. It's not that at all, we are trying to protect the environment and that it's enormously important for this government", says financial minister Benedikt Jóhannesson.

Honestly, I never expected such a strong pro-EV policy from this government; it's a mostly conservative coalition, and the Greens aren't part of it. It's the first time I've ever been pleasantly surprised by them. :) Maybe there's someone in the government who owns a company importing charging stations or something ;)

Okay Tesla - Iceland has stepped up to the plate for you (assuming this gets confirmed, which since this is coming from the governing coalition, is highly likely). This bill is literally designed to help you out. Now it's your turn to step up to Iceland. Store, service center, and a handful of superchargers, and this island (with ~2m annual tourists making road trips, in a place with the world's third most expensive gasoline) is yours. :)
 
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Just looking at the map, I see Germany somewhere in the middle.

But I can tell you, Germany is covered with SCs. Due to the population density there is little left to wish for. Smaller optimisations: yes, but basically you can go anywhere in Germany.

Thank you Tesla.

Part of that is explained by the large geographical sizes of Norway and Sweden compared to their population size. Countries of large distances need more chargers for obvious reasons. Especially true for Sweden in this case which probably otherwise would not "deserve" the second spot - Norway, that is further explained by the fact that incentives have made BEVs so popular there. Denmark is more explained by incentives and cross-traffic from north IMO, than geographical size, though.

Germany is more balanced on the population size vs. geographical size, as is e.g. U.S. in this case (though that is massively lopsided in favor of California).
 
Germany is more balanced on the population size vs. geographical size

We call it overpopulated ;)
... and yes, even Sweden's numbers could in part be explained by (cross-)traffic from Norway. The first superchargers in Sweden was basically the route from Norway to Copenhagen (and then via Denmark to the rest of Europe), and then the route between Oslo and Stockholm. Sweden and Denmark is among the most popular holiday destinations by cars from Norway, as you can see when Bjorn is counting Norwegian cars vs "natives" at the superchargers there...


Is it just me, or do the Norway August numbers look pretty weak so far? Only 38 S and 34 X. X should be way higher.

It has been questioned on the Norwegian forum if something is up with the script, as it not only the Tesla numbers that is questionable low for August (so far), but also the total numbers and then also the numbers for all BEV makers.
 
We call it overpopulated ;)
... and yes, even Sweden's numbers could in part be explained by (cross-)traffic from Norway. The first superchargers in Sweden was basically the route from Norway to Copenhagen (and then via Denmark to the rest of Europe), and then the route between Oslo and Stockholm. Sweden and Denmark is among the most popular holiday destinations by cars from Norway, as you can see when Bjorn is counting Norwegian cars vs "natives" at the superchargers there...

Hey... psst... could you convince other Norwegian Tesla owners to tell Tesla that they enjoy taking their cars on a ferry to Iceland, so that we can finally get some superchargers here? ;) hehehe